imho structurally this downturn is much more serious than the dot.com bust. that one was a classic and contained speculative bust in a nascent domain. what we have now is a very different type of challenge. a fully developed tech universe, with demonstrable revenue streams but the sustainability and even legitimacy of those streams being questioned in fundamental ways. this is coupled with an apparent innovation fatigue and alternative growth options like the metaverse feeling completely bonkers.

most importantly, digital tech has become too important: both within countries (democracy, privacy, competition etc) and between countries (security, supply chain political control, trade advantage etc). this does not mean we should expect a wipeout, there is significant inertia in consumer, corporate and government choices, but I would not expect another boom cycle to materialize before global geopolitical stars align towards some sort of consensus of how tech is to be deployed and controlled