How was Gates able to predict the future with so much accuracy and yet still failed to capture the most value from it or better still establish itself as a core player on the internet like Google etc.
Internet Explorer was a dominant browser for a while. It came bundled with Windows, and Gates thought they'd use it to embrace and extend the Web, like they'd done with everything up to then. Netscape's browser share quickly went to zero.
There were other browsers, though, and the end result of the legal actions was that MS had to allow you a choice. The Internet public was not as compliant with Gates' designs as the PC public had been, and "web standards" became something they had to live with, rather than being able to set them.
I was conceptually aware of Macs, but I didn't know anyone who had actually used one. I know this isn't the typical experience around here, but where I grew up, Microsoft was simply the only option.
They lost it all years later when Blackberry, Google and later Apple started to become serious competition. They couldn't get Windows Phone to succeed (despite its superior underpinnings), they lost to Chromebooks in education, and they failed to keep Office competitive enough to make it as ubiquitous as it once was. I'm surprised Xbox is still around at this point.
Gates had a vision and a keen eye for opportunities. When he was leaving, Microsoft was dealing with a failed products and unexpected competition. (Vista, iPhone, Zune) and after he was gone it took a while before MS got its vision back. The company tried to go a wild, new direction after fixing Vista and turning it into 7 by going all-in on Windows 8. Mobile, tablets, desktop, and console were all moving towards the same, unified ecosystem and design, something that brought Apple great success. On the Windows side, though, I think it's safe to say Windows 8 was universally disliked, tolerated at best. Windows Mobile died because of its many backwards incompatible releases despite the lacking ecosystem.
It's interesting to imagine what the world would look like if Microsoft had managed to make Windows Phone a success. I think that had 90s-Gates been at the helm, Microsoft could've even beaten the iPad.
The DOJ scrutiny basically knee-capped Microsoft.
Later companies learned the lesson and have spent a lot of money on lobbying and otherwise cozying up to Washington.
In what way?