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So both sites lose? That'll make manipulation easier than ever before.

Or does the older site win? Frequently scraped / already popular sites will love that.

It kinda sounds like you think that Google doesn't have the resources to have a human decide that stackoverflow isn't itself a spam clone.

This is a huge problem for a very small number of sites and a non-existent problem for everything else. The list of authoritative, egregiously-copied sources could easily be maintained by one person. The only difficulty comes from determining when to trigger the system.

They have the resources, they don’t have the willingness. Google’s MO is never hiring a human to do a job well, when a computer can do the same job badly.

Derank the newer page, you don't need to derank the entire site.

This doesn’t work in general because people can copy content faster than google can check who was first. Also sometimes you actually want the derivative.

Let’s start with big offenders. If a website copied tens of thousands of comments from SO it gets penalized. We don’t always need to find a perfect system to improve our experience.

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