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Comment by smcl | Hacker News Reader

I think we are really far from Scotland unilaterally declaring independence and England rolling in with tanks.

Oh boy, I hope you didn't jinx that one.

A few years ago I couldn't imagine Brexit becoming a reality or someone invading... well, let's leave it at that.

Brexit became a possibility the second UKIP became a threat to the electoral chances of the Conservative party. It's very likely that Labour would have won in 2015 if Cameron didn't promise that referendum.

Scottish Labour already has a committed anti-independence position, so they likely will let the SNP win over doing a similar promise. The only other possibility is a coalition government with Labour, but I don't see any government making the same mistake after 2016.

Thanks for elaborating!

For some reason I find British politics very interesting although never having set foot onto British soil.

Ha yeah. Honestly though if Nicola Sturgeon had the sort of control of Scottish politics (and "popularity") that Putin does in Russia or Orban in Hungary, then some kind of escalation could have been on the table. But I imagine she knows that making any kind of move like that would be political suicide and would kill off a lot of the hard-won support for independence that they've grown over the years.

So Scotland can become bigger Northern Ireland?

You're probably right but one thing that worries me is I think both governments would sort of like that result...

Yeah, do you really think British soldiers would murder unarmed British civilians on British soil!?

That kind of thing would definitely raise Ire in the land.

Time to start finally building that [Irish Sea Bridge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_Sea_Bridge)?

I can't tell if you're being sarcastic or if you've actually never heard of Bloody Sunday. Apologies if the former.

If the soldiers really did that then don't you think Lance Corporal David James Cleary of the Parachute Regiment would have been arrested and charged with murder instead of covering it up and granting him anonymity as Soldier F?

I don't get why your comments are downvoted. I think there must be a few people here who aren't aware of the actions of Lance Corporal David James Cleary of the Parachute Regiment aka Soldier F during Bloody Sunday - those being that he is accused of murders which were covered up, and was weirdly granted a level of anonymity during his trial for said murders.

The unilateral declaration of Scottish independence is the unlikely part. I am quite sure the Army would be willing to defend the union by committing the same sorts of acts they did in Ireland with the same level of enthusiasm.

I doubt there’d be too many people in Westminster willing to repeat the Troubles with a similar level of entusiasm.

I think it all depends. Perhaps few if any would want to kick off a violent conflict on purpose, but are plenty of clowns who would stumble into that situation through a series of poor decisions. If someone like the former PM Truss were in power, all bets are off.

That is what happens in 95% or more of other countries. It doesn't even require an actual attempt at independence. Troops shoot their own countrymen really often. That's why they're never used for crowd control. Just look at Kent State or Tiananmen.

Check the other comment, fnord123 is referencing British Army atrocities in Northern Ireland

That too. Basically any solider will open fire on their countrymen for almost any (or no) reason. It's not a pleasant reality, but it is reality...

This is not true. The succession of Norway from the Swedish-Norway union was peaceful because Swedish soldiers didn't want to shoot on what they considered to be their own kind. FWIW I am a (former) soldier and I don't think many would shoot their countrymen for "almost any" reason. I don't think it's the reality at all.

That's fine, but now you have to explain the 1000s of counter examples, across almost all countries, where they did. Why did the US National Guard open fire at Kent state? Why did the PLA roll tanks into Bejing? The same for Peterloo or Bloody Sunday and so on.

Of course, no one ever tells you to shoot "that nice fellow countryman over there". Soldiers are told dangerous (though unarmed) anarchists/bourgeoisie/terrorists need to be stopped. And the vast majority of cases end up with a lot of dead civilians.

I am not judging, I would likely be the same if I were a soldier in that situation. The fact it happens so often shows it isn't down to individual soldiers lacking some moral or ethical quality. It's human nature. It's why armies work. I just think everyone have a (very dangerous, baseless) belief that "that could never happen here "...

This is not “any soldier “, it’s a small percentage

No, it's a small percentage who refuse. Just look at any nation, dozens of examples of massacres vs a very small number of peaceful outcomes.

You've only been able to list 1 example in Norway/Sweden. I gave 3 off of the top of my head across a range of times, countries, cultures etc.

You can "believe" what you want. But the facts are against you here I'm afraid...

If only because Scotland has the nukes.

The British military (certainly the Army) are really, really loyal to the crown. That the British nuclear subs are based in Faslane mean anything in this (extremely extremely unlikely, fictional) scenario - the military would without question all side with the union whether they're stationed north or south of the border.

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