It's perfectly natural for an engineer to de-value B2B relations - I expect it, but at the same time that's the grain of salt we should take when we read an engineer's hot takes.
It's perfectly natural for an engineer to de-value B2B relations - I expect it, but at the same time that's the grain of salt we should take when we read an engineer's hot takes.
Keeping Twitter up is not success for Elon
He needs to make it worth well more than the $44bn he paid for it in order to achieve anything resembling success; the Twitter is going to crash thing was just a dumb hashtag, no one believed that he's just let it go down and stay down.
what would that even look like? Yet, not achieving that insane failure is now what people cite as success.
I understand people hope it will fail, because they don't want to admit how useless much of the staff these big tech companies have accumulated over the years are to the core products. But, you will only be setting yourself up for disappointment. Elon has done much more impressive things with a small team of "hardcore" engineers (as he puts it). I think many sticking around are the type not to shy away from a challenge, though again I understand many are not in a position to be playing competing in the workplace.
Of course, if you were vital to Twitter, then you likely left before he took over.
Because you could. Plenty of people would rather have severance.
I base this on experience. I was a consultant so I did what all good consultants do when holding together a sinking ship: I doubled my rates. Twice.
You are missing out some important nuance there: no one said it would fall off the earth immediately, that it would cease to function right now. Many, myself included, have said we think it can't function long term, or even medium term, like this.
Day to day running of the main app is all automated when things are OK so it will keep ticking over as long as someone says the infrastructure invoices. The real test comes when there is next an infrastructure issue or some other fault: are the right sort of people there to resolve it quickly? Also do they have a good combination of people around to work on those bugs those advertisers are concerned about and other maintainence & improvement (of both the app and the other infrastructure it and the company relys upon)?
If we get rid of all car mechanics your car won't break down immediately, but good look getting it sorted easily when it eventually does develop a fault.
Twitter was somewhat bloated, I agree there. But what has happened to it in recent weeks is far more damaging than that could ever have been. It needs to turn around very quickly to survive financially and technically, and I think the chances of that happening are small.
Quite a few people said that it would crash essentially immediately.
Which… by all evidence he has. The corpse of Twitter might shamble on for awhile. He might even sell it down the line for pennies on the dollar. But he’s got to turn a billion in profit just to pay down the debt. Best of luck with that.
This is very disingenuous, there were hordes of people claiming it would be down in 24 hours, 48 hours, after the weekend etc. and there are still masses of people still saying it won’t last two weeks. At this point so many people have cried wolf loudly and repeatedly that I think the best option is to believe no one unless they are reporting first hand facts that can be independently verified. Everything else is just hot air.
> > You are missing out some important nuance there: no one said it would fall off the earth immediately,
> This is very disingenuous,
Fair, I matched hyperbole (the implication that a majority were saying something) with hyperbole (staying no one was).
Let's go with no one with a clue who is unbiased by direct connection.
> there were hordes of people claiming it would be down in 24 hours, 48 hours, after the weekend etc
If this pot may comment on the a kettle's underside for a moment: "hordes" may be as disingenuous "no one". It was said by some angrily¹ on their way out and repeated and amplified by the mob that is Twitter² users.
And that outgoing team didn't say it would fall down in any time frame IIRC: just that things could not run without them. I would read this as a medium/long term view, the social media amplifier read it as "it dies in 3, 2, ...".
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[1] rightly so, but the emotion does reduce the ability to maintain objective reasoning
[2] one of the selection of reasons I have for not using Twitter aside from occasionally looking at a message linked elsewhere: it is too full of certain types who think Twitter is a good idea!
My money is on certs for critical services expiring.
Twitter is a glorified message board. You don't need more than 50 engineers to oversee that. Wasn't instagram and whatsapp overseeing >250m DAU with around that many engineers before their acquisitions?
The hard part is monetizing.
What was the revenue Instagram and Whatsapp were collecting at the time of their acquisition? Likely 0.
The moment you start collecting money, signing contracts, besides the non engineering work like legal and finance, not to mention sales, you will need to do a lot of tracking whether you delivered what you claimed you sold.
Didnt Facebook get in trouble for exaggerating ad metrics?
And that's on top of all sorts regional compliance requirements over GDPR, cookies, which require both engineers building stuff as specified by legal, which wasnt required before because if you have no revenue, you dont really need to worry about getting sued or banned in the region.
Twitter-as-140-characters-shouted-into-the-ether can be 'built in a weekend'. Twitter-as-a-business-that-makes-money is an entirely different machine.
As Elon Musk Cuts Costs at Twitter, Some Bills Are Going Unpaid - https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/22/technology/elon-musk-twit...
> ...
> Mr. Musk also issued an order to slow or in some cases halt transfers of funds to Twitter’s vendors and contract services, the people said. Any expenditures for services need to be approved by Mr. Birchall, three people said. Mr. Musk has since declined to pay for the travel services incurred by the former Twitter executives, the people said.
> ...
> Mr. Davis, the president of the Boring Company, has also directed Twitter employees to renegotiate the deals that the company has with firms such as Amazon and Oracle, which provide computing and tech services, the people said. The employees were told to suggest to those companies that Mr. Musk’s firms would not work with them in the future if they refused to renegotiate, the people said.
> After Twitter’s contract with one software vendor expired under Mr. Musk’s ownership, that company voided a discount it had given to Twitter, one engineering manager said.
Hating on Twitter has become just another political in-group signal. Yawn.
Again, what does this even look like? Twitter.com returns 404 and everyone gives up?
At least make straw man arguments that are reasonable.
I have no private insight to his motives, but profitability / vanity / dozens of other motives seem a lot more likely to me than spending $44 billion to fix a censorship problem, even if that does make for (selectively) good marketing.
A week later (April 11th), he decided not to join the board because he wouldn't be able to exceed a 14.9% cap.
Three days later, he makes a meme-ish offer of $54.20 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1514698036760530945
Side bit look at the stock prices and volumes - https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TWTR/history/
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I suspect that both the "this is the backout penalty" and the SEC looking closely at him for trying to manipulate the price of Twitter discouraged him from backing out.
He was able to use it as an opportunity to sell some other significant amounts of stock as part of the "I am going to buy Twitter" that he would likely have been able to keep as cash if he was able to successfully back out of buying Twitter (though he's containing to sell stock).
https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/08/business/elon-musk-tesla-stoc...
It was a terrible business deal if your concern was profit. Even Musk says he overpaid, and the previous investors of Twitter were clearly eager to get out of that investment, going to court to force Musk to buy it.
If you read the text messages between Musk and Ellison, which came out as part of the trial, Ellison was offering Musk basically any amount of money, a blank check. Why?
For those that think Twitter is going to crash, are you on the right?
I encounter way more people who hate scientology than people who praise it, that seems consistent with the cult label.
I'd be curious to know some of the "irrational" reasons people dislike Musk, I think people's dislike of him is pretty understandable: he's a dishonest businessman and a partisan troll.
I'm certain nobody likes those vaguely described bad things and would agree those "substantively worse" things are worse. So what? The topic is Elon and thus we see people's reaction to Elon.
Unfortunately, it became not just politicized but partisan. Republicans 'like' him and Democrats do not.
War is peace, freedom is slavery, ignorance is strength, hate is healthy?
How is it "healthy"? Sitting there hating some random person you don't know "more and more everyday"? That sounds like someone who needs therapy or, at least, a new hobby.
Musk lost quite of non-fanboy supporters though, over they years he did things that not everyone can stomach. No one forgot his pedo guy accusation for the diver who saved the kids from a cave in Thailand.
These things are not connected, it actually makes no sense to say that. I know many more Musk haters than fans but at least 2 of the fans I know are definitely into the Musk-cult where they believe everything Musk does is great, that he has no flaws and any perceived flaw is just a tactic for him to get even further. They really do subscribe to the Musk 4D-5D chess stuff.
That's a cult behaviour, they are just into the personality of Elon Musk with no regards to his actions. The successful outcomes of Musk validates, to them, anything he does, like he is an infallible demi-God.
That's the cult thing.
Really not sure why you are conflating with how many hate or love him, there's no connection to that, at all.
If they're boasting about anything, it's that Twitter is getting more users, is faster, and there's less hate. Before Elon, Twitter was a place where employees were paid $180k to endlessly redesign icons and have DEI meetings. The new Twitter is a lot leaner.
https://www.businessinsider.com/twitter-payroll-finance-depa...
Yeah, to the point that they fire employees on the spot for providing factual information.
If they were to have a seriously catastrophic incident, it's conceivable that they might not have anyone left who knows how to get things back online. It's not inconceivable that they could eventually figure it out, but without that essential knowledge, who knows how long that could take? I imagine it would be pretty bad for Twitter's future if the site were unavailable for days or weeks on end.
Twitter is a quite complex distributed system, as good as geohot is he's just a guy, with one brain, capable of holding a limited amount of information and context at a time. There's no way that one guy, no matter how good, can actually completely reason about all aspects of a complex system.
Even less in 12 weeks, that's actually absurdly preposterous.
SpaceX Dragon: https://twitter.com/ashleevance/status/1593133313484787713
Optimism: https://twitter.com/jinglejamOP/status/1310718738417811459
I do think Twitter is likely to crash. A machine can continue for a while if you stop maintenance, but at some point you'll run into a problem that needs intervention, and Twitter has lost enough of the people who know how things work that there's a good chance they'll have a serious outage.
The Internet is big and full of people.
Is it actually the same people changing their predictions as time and evidence accumulate, or is it just a change in who gets attention?
But my original criticism was about all of the hysteria in the last two weeks about Twitter "going down". Those sky-is-falling tweets got very little pushback. The claim was not about profitability or advertising; there were only these shrill voices claiming the site would stop working. And when that didn't materialize, all the people making those claims just went about their business without any personal repercussions or call outs. It was all just motivated by irrational Musk hatred generated by politics. It had nothing to do with technology. You can still see these tweets right now, a lot of people didn't delete them when Twitter didn't burn.
I always held out the possibility that Twitter could die, but if it does it will be a slow death. It all depends on if the new payment model generates enough cash to offset advertising losses. So in that sense I agree with her conclusion.
You can fire everyone and fully re-staff the firm, and eventually get to the point where you can do all of those things safely. But it's going to take a hell of a long time and downtime to shake out all the things that can go wrong in the myriad of unplanned interactions between different services.
I don't expect Twitter to crash and burn in the sense of the website being down and not coming back up. But I do expect feature velocity to grind to a halt, until all of these self-inflicted wounds are staunched.
Except didn't he fire them too?