Marc Andreessen: Predictions for 2012

I think only VCs use it to broadcast that they are having meetings with important people in nice places to feed their egos. No one I know uses it.

Its wildly popular in the Boston area -- I use it many times a day. Works nice to meet up with friends when they're in the area, to learn tips about locations (i.e. recommended dishes at restaurants, info about Gluten Free offerings).

The first time I tried to use Foursquare, a couple years back, it did nothing for me, because I don't (usually) want to serendipitously meet up with people - if I'm with you, it's because we've planned it in advance. After a few months, I deleted my account.

A couple of months ago, I started using Foursquare again, because I wanted to understand their coupons / offers integration. So far I've been pleasantly surprised.

I still don't want to have unplanned meetups with friends who randomly happen to be near me, but I'm enjoying the savings and freebies I've been getting from places I happen to go to, which happens a lot more than I expected - often enough that I pull out my phone and check when I go somewhere.

So, yeah, I do use Foursquare, and I don't see that changing as long as it keeps saving me money.

Foursquare is slowly evolving to the point where it serves users as a recommendation app (exploring places to go near to your locations), tips for what to do/eat/drink when you're there, and some good deals/offers to seal the deal.

The game mechanics and checking in will soon be just a minor aspect of their business. (So privacy aspects just won't affect the income-generating side of their business.)

Yes, I work with 12 other people, 6 check-in all the time-everywhere, and 2 others say they use to read reviews.

Majority in a minority? Maybe... but still used.

I think people will still use 4sq with their location hidden as a sort of diary. Both 4sq and the user can still get value from this activity like recommendations, reminders, history of visits etc.

> Marc is a smart dude but those predictions > are fairly obvious going forward.

He's probably smart enough not to give away his best predictions.

This might describe the U.S., but prices for smartphones in the developing world have a different starting point. They are forced to be cost competitive (both for the handset and voice/data) from the outset in order to get any initial traction. The Huawei Ideos (Android) has been quite successful in Kenya where it sells for about $80 with an initial allotment of minutes and data, which users than can then reload as necessary.

Huawei has sacrificed on tech specs to be cost competitive. I wouldn't be surprised if future entry-level smartphones in the developing world hold the technology relatively constant and focus instead on getting the viable price point even lower, which is the reverse of what we see in the U.S. where the price stays relatively constant but the handset technology constantly improves.

Off-contract phones are really the only thing keeping T-Mobile alive now, I think. Those will just turn into smartphones vs. featurephones. Plus the whole non-USA market.

In 2012+, I could see $100-300 true smartphones, bought outright, or heavily subsidized by a non-telco (e.g. you get a BoA sponsored phone with an account with direct debit, or more realistically some more profitable, faster growing business like walmart).

Combine that with MVNO service through the sponsor, month to month. Or, free service if you make a minimum spend on another service -- e.g. free cellphone with $100/mo comcast, or if you spend >$1k/mo at Amazon.

Pretty similar to the Kindle now -- buy the device once (subsidized), make no or minimal ($79/yr) recurring payments, and then shift most of your discretionary and non-discretionary spending to that vendor.

Turn it around: why did he choose them to invest in? Because he predicted their growth.

You could say he put his money where his mouth is.

As such a late entry, I'm curious how you plan to differentiate yourselves from the likes of Foursquare and the others? I hope you do not take offense, but this isn't exactly a new idea.