Unless things go really pear-shaped in the UK, this is unlikely within the next twenty years.
That doesn't seem terribly unlikely in within the next twenty years.
I do truly believe that Brexit has fundamentally and permanently shifted the balance in the region in favor of the republicans. Public support for independence is the strongest it's been in decades, particularly within the younger demographics. There's no sign of that sentiment slowing. On the other side of the fence, Parliament's desire to govern NI has lessened significantly, something that would have been considered sacrilege just 10 years ago.
I can't picture a situation where it won't eventually go to a vote, just like the Scottish referendum. I also can't imagine it being a particularly peaceful transition whatever the result of the vote.
Wow, in that case you probably have a more in-depth awareness than me. It's just that lots of people with no context have been pushing a United Ireland post Brexit, and it's really frustrating to try to explain that it's not quite that easy. My apologies for lumping you in with those people.
> I do truly believe that Brexit has fundamentally and permanently shifted the balance in the region in favor of the republicans. Public support for independence is the strongest it's been in decades, particularly within the younger demographics. There's no sign of that sentiment slowing. On the other side of the fence, Parliament's desire to govern NI has lessened significantly, something that would have been considered sacrilege just 10 years ago.
I think that you're probably right, but I would prefer this to happen really slowly with a well thought out plan. I think sometime by the late 2030's/early 40s would probably make sense. I'm just very conscious of how Brexit was managed, and I dearly want to avoid a situation like that.
More generally, the population of the Republic will most likely need to make a whole bunch of compromises to get unity (change the anthem/flag/maybe rejoin the Commonwealth etc) and it's gonna take a while to get people in the South to shift on that.
> I can't picture a situation where it won't eventually go to a vote, just like the Scottish referendum. I also can't imagine it being a particularly peaceful transition whatever the result of the vote.
That's why I want to wait a while, as right now definitely seems like the wrong time (sadly). If Brexit hadn't happened then we'd have had a much easier time of this, but such is life.
Will it? I know some Northern Irish who would not on board with that.
32% identified as British only, 29% identified as Irish only and 20% as Northern Irish only.
In 2011, the figures were 40% British only, 25% Irish only and 21% Northern Irish only.