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I think getting a license for full commercial services in California can be an inflection point. Waymo is currently serving outside SF downtown (edited: outside, not in) without too much hiccups, so I don't expect significant technical blockers for future expansion into the entire bay area and then the LA and its metro. Looks like this is their plan as well.

https://blog.waymo.com/2022/10/next-stop-for-waymo-one-los-a...

There will be several automakers who do not have world-class driving automation. Google already provides the infotainment and dashboard interfaces for Volvo with Android Automotive. VW made a mess of their in-house software development. Car makers will look to buy-in autonomy systems. Google has it end-to-end, including all the user-facing bits and the cloud backend. I expect they are committed for the long haul.

> If Google is actually focused

That’s unfortunately a big IF in modern Google era