100s of Twitter employees leaving after Musk's 'extremely hardcore' work demands
theverge.com
theverge.com
So Elon paid $44B for a company now with 900-odd employees. For a 10-year ROI, that's $4.4B per year profit, or $440 million/per employee
For contrast, Netflix has the highest revenue per employee at $2.63 million/person, and Apple is second at $2.38 million, and Alphabet & Meta next at $1.64, and eBay at $0.9 million per employee.
So, he'll need to get 200x the profitability per employee, just to get a total profit equal to his investment in 10 years.
To get a company valuation back to his purchase price, at a 20X multiple, he needs to make those employees as profitable per employee as Apple. In a business that has never been consistently profitable, has not much of a moat, and in which he'd panicked almost all of his advertisers, the primary customers.
Good luck with that
Reddit also has some structural advantages. Building around communities allows Reddit to ban advertiser unfriendly communities, and to threaten to ban others to force them to toe the line. It also gives them rough controls over what other users see (e.g. hiding NSFW content, quarantining subreddits so they don't show up on the not-logged-in front page).
They've also managed to convince their users to moderate each other for free, which gives them a really lean head count.
I think Twitter would need to substantially redefine their product to compete in that arena.
Reddit also only made ~$350M in revenue last year. I don't think competing with Reddit is likely to justify the purchase price of Twitter over the timespan either is likely to survive.
Right up to a few days before the deal closed, Elon was hoping he would not have to actually run Twitter. And that's the second part that is under-explored: Elon could not find a CEO. And he never will until he admits all of his and the coinvestors' equity stakes are now worth zero, and he takes a down round that reshapes the cap table and enables a sane incentive package for a CEO.
Your math is off. $4.4B per year profit / 1000 employees = $4.4M per year profit per employee.
Apple had $1M profit per employee in 2021.
What’s an achievable PPE for a business like New Twitter? If you say $500K, and if you subscribe to The Headcount Method of Valuation, that implies Musk will need to 10X headcount from this low point to break even in 10 years.
(I question the premise though — I don’t think the plan is “extract $44B in cash by 2032.”)
Even if legal, what Musk is doing is incredibly sleazy. The employees agreed to work on certain terms. Then he demands they agree to different terms. Seems sketchy, but I think I know what they'd argue.
It's just a really creepy thing. I don't think I've really seen or heard of it elsewhere. You work for me, so sign here for different terms, or you lose your job.
I do know that it's probably legal in most jurisdictions for CEOs to just dictate new work conditions, after hiring (though it shouldn't). However, it doesn't normally come in the form of a button you must push to agree with him, "or else". Usually you have a meeting where you explain the plans moving forward... it seems companies that are scared of being sued do this.
I can't imagine this is a legally prudent move. We should enact laws that specifically target CEOs that act like cartoon characters. Of course, that would just let them be more secretive or quiet.
It's not just altruism or for employee moral. It's clear some of the companies are simply deciding to not rock the boat by firing people. This can be more legally complicated than it seems.
Anyway, I'm not really saying one way or another, but it seems to follow that if others are taking measures, there might be good reasons for them. I would be surprised if the Elon / twitter don't get sued by this; multiple times.
1) Never give people an ultimatum. It basically never works in your favor. That was such a dumb thing by Elon and his team. I don't think Elon expected the numbers to be so high.
2) Workers often overestimate their own worth within a company or how easily they can be replaced. It's likely that all the people leaving saying Twitter is going to majorly break soon won't be correct, as I doubt the core engineers are the ones posting Emojis in the Slack channels.
!!! “I know of six critical systems (like ‘serving tweets’ levels of critical) which no longer have any engineers," "There is no longer even a skeleton crew manning the system. It will continue to coast until it runs into something, and then it will stop.”
Could be fake, but assuming true, can Elon take it back? Is a webform like legally binding for severance? Elon did say he could run it with 150 engineers do even if 90% are gone, that leaves 700 thereabouts.
I saw an article backtracking on some things reported, with Twitter being a lot more flexible with people deemed "essential," which lends itself to my general view.
They have great reason to be hyperbolic - they've just basically been fired, Elon is accusing Twitter of being an inefficient, lazy, engineering organisation. He has insulted them, they will insult him back and want him to fail.
So fun times for those left there to fight the fires.
With that context, the performance during this World Cup will be especially meaningful.
Surely we have all been involved with large-to-small systems where we were curious how well/long they would stand up on their own without intervention. It's kind of fascinating to watch a real-world example, even though we likely won't get a lot of detail. But still, :popcorn_emoji:.
But what's getting somewhat-ignored in this discourse is they aren't changing anything. All deploys are frozen. And the new CEO has made a ton of promises about new features and policies. Eventually they need to roll those out, and once they do, damn... Even if they have strong automated tests, those generally only tell you that new code is functionally ok. Anything that crosses interfaces, deals with end-to-end integration, or adds new tables/dbs/jobs/etc that would eventually hit their scaling solutions - all could have catastrophic effects.
(And that ignores the consent decree stuff on changes too.)
I've seen people routinely feign outrage over people not addressed as "Dr" (which as someone with a PhD I think is ridiculous) - even though it's clearly a minor thing, I think people seem fine trying to subtly disrespect Musk through how he's addressed
To call someone a loser and dribble about this asinine analysis of familiarity. It is infuriating to read. How I wish you had been born in the middle ages with Lord's and Lady's, you would be happier and so would I for never having to know of your existence.
Why would someone who is capable of being a core engineer at Twitter agree to be overworked after Musk destroys the majority of the company. The most talented people will leave the dumpster fire.
The remaining folks are probably going to be the people with the least confidence that they can get a new job in three months
https://mobile.twitter.com/THISWILLWORK/status/1593376111563...
Twitter is full of employees with 5-10 years of experience sharing that they are leaving. There is no doubt many people with critical knowledge and skills that are not easily replaced are gone.
I'm just not sure Elon is the man to fix a business that isn't really going anywhere. It was pedestrian, maybe it was hard to see a vision in that space, and the company culture became one of "maintain".
Even if he sells a vision of the "Everything App" like WeChat, is he going to find enough people at Twitter and enough new recruits to buy into that? Wouldn't you rather go put man on Mars or fight climate change?
If he _does_ manage to turn Twitter into the Western WeChat, it will be one of the most remarkable events in tech history. That said, I'm not even sure we want him working on a social network rather than loftier goals, so perhaps it would be better for humanity if he fails fast here.
I mean of course it is for people living in Ukraine who need updated information to survive. (But I would also hope they have govt sponsored alternatives)
But I actually thought it was deeply disturbing how many ppl in unrelated places, like California, would wake up and look forward to getting a fresh voyeur look on the suffering of others. Ppl were spectating and commenting like it was the latest season of game of thrones. Most likely ppl did some unintentional desensitization to themselves unknowingly.
Imo, not having such information is a net positive for society. Yes we should study war to not repeat historical mistakes. That’s completely different that what I saw a lot of Twitter coverage was tho
Even the USA's support will wane if the economic costs create democratic pressure against Ukrainian support. One half of US Congress has just come under control by the GOP, a major political party that has a prominent isolationist faction who have been pretty open that they don't see the point in opposing Putin and would rather focus on domestic concerns. This isolationist pressure is well contained in the US thus far because Americans are swimming in sympathetic media coverage of Ukraine.
From the other day: https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/11/11/1063162/twitters...
But then we get to other issues such as 'Lost memories': War crimes evidence threatened by AI moderation - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-socialmedia-rights...
And further back: Youtube and Facebook are Removing Evidence of Atrocities, Jeopardizing Cases Against War Criminals https://theintercept.com/2017/11/02/war-crimes-youtube-faceb...
Recently: Are tech companies removing evidence of war crimes? https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-60911099
Or from the EFF - Amidst Invasion of Ukraine, Platforms Continue to Erase Critical War Crimes Documentation - https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2022/04/amidst-invasion-ukrain...
So yes, losing information on the war is a bad thing.
The momentarily desperate and the nihilistic.
I imagine a proportion will say “sure” and do absolutely nothing until they finally get fired. While another group will say yes up to the very minute they find another job.
I can see one group of people: those who genuinely care about Twitter and have felt frustrated under previous management. But you have to wonder why they didn't already leave.
But I don’t understand why everyone is so dour. Either Musk figured out how to fix Twitter, or we no longer have to deal with Twitter. Win win.
If it goes bankrupt it goes to the creditors and won't disappear.
edit: no, still going, but maybe the notifications are slow. As an SRE, I somehow feel obliged to watch it break.
I guess I'd probably be gone by now.
I cannot fathom what they do. Can someone help me with some general percent breakdown? How many are management, support, coders, testers, etc?
And hey, maybe if he kills twitter, he'll still be doing humanity a service.
This country has a serious problem with platforming and idolizing narcissists and non-violent psychopaths and it needs to stop. Sh*t-shows like this hopefully have a chance of showing everyone that these monsters don't deserve our adulation.
Yours is a description: what people in fact do.
Yet, you phrased it in the same way, with the same emphasis. It might be a world view shifting shock to you. But I have always thought Elon was an asshole, from the very beginning of his self image marketing campaign.
You may not owe billionaire CEOs who you feel are psychopathic better, but you owe this community better if you're participating in it.
I can see that you are impressed by his wealth and title, but I owe this community a voice to balance yours.
It's common for people to conclude that the mods secretly hold the opposing view to theirs*. I suppose the logic goes like this: (1) I can't possibly have broken the rules; (2) yet the moderator has scolded me; (3) why? there must be some other reason; (4) it must be that they disagree with me. The mistake is at step (1). The truth is, we don't care—we just want commenters to use the site as intended.
* https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&que...
As long as Twitter remains the social media portal for politicians, business leaders, media, journalists, and scientists, he controls the algorithm.
He also gets to advertise at will to the most powerful people on the planet.
His largest business risk is political. He needs the government support for spaceX and he might need them to mitigate Tesla class action liabilities.
For 1/10th the market cap of Tesla he owns the ‘Town square’.
Presumably he could pay off the debt if he wanted to, unless Tesla shares crater.
Now that he owns Twitter, his biggest risk is pushback from employees. He needs and rewards loyalty, and so forcing people to opt-out and pledge allegiance early is also critical.
The short, medium, or even long term economics of the Twitter business are not relevant and he’s using it as a smokescreen to hide the power play he’s making.
Like Trump, he understands power and doesn’t concern himself with truth.
That's still a lot of employees... Hopefully for Musk, they kept the better ones.