Hacker News Reader

Comment by next_xibalba | Hacker News Reader

It’s probably worth noting that Roubini has made a career out of making the most dire of dire forecasts and has been mostly wrong. He has even earned the nickname “Dr. Doom” in the press.

But then, even a broken clock is right twice a day!

View on HN

What are some examples of things he's mostly been wrong about?

I know he's been saying crypto is a scam for awhile, in addition to calls he made regarding the financial crisis under Bush.

Here's an article from 2011 illustrating a few of his predictions, including a recession in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007/2008, 2011, and a collapse of the Chinese economy in 2013

https://www.firstpost.com/world/how-seriously-should-we-take...

More color: https://www.erictyson.com/articles/20081024_1

He was right tho. There should have been a recession way before the Lehman and subsequent housing bust. History is repeating itself again with the Covid downturn. The fact that the FED/government came to the "rescue" and pushed the recession into the future is irrelevant. The reasons he was positing recessions were sound and they eventually all came to fruition.

I know being early and/or late is considered being wrong. The fact remains he is calling it like he sees it. A reversion to the mean during a mania is a ballsy thing to predict. If the fundamentals are fucked, it will eventually correct.

Nobody cares when an economy should do something.

They care when it does.

If the former mattered, then it'd be a much simpler science.

It's easy to be "less wrong", or "wrong less often", by not predicting a recession in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007/2008, 2011 and 2013. Yet it is not any more useful.

If you predict a recession every year for a decade+, you're not making a prediction. You're just repeating words until the inevitable happens.

This is why I prefer 24h time, it's only wrong once a day.

This is all you need to know about this story. This guy is a clown. Disregard and move on

Reply on news.ycombinator.com