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Comment by rvba | Hacker News Reader

Putin invaded Ukraine to secure his own rule (or rule of his clique). It has nothing to do with geopolitics - it is about staying in power.

After the Orange Revolution Ukraine started moving towards the West, approached European Union (lots of Ukrainians work in Poland and rest of EU) and started to fight with corruption.

This 'westernization' process started to slowly make Ukraine richer.

A rich Ukraine is an end of Putin's rule, because average Russians would realize that Russia could be a normal country too and they could be rich too, instead of living without toilets and being robbed by oligarchs. But in order to do that they would have to get rid of Putin and his clique.

So Putin tried to conquer Ukraine and when this failed, plan B is to ruin its economy.

This way Ukraine is as poor or poorer than Russia. This way Putin can secure his power.

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> This 'westernization' process started to slowly make Ukraine richer.

I don’t think Ukraine reached even the pre-2014 prosperity levels by February 2022. You need to separate wishful thinking and hard data.

Thinking is good, but why "think" when you can just check the facts? Follow your own advice on hard data.

where is your hard data?

Comparing the data from Ukrainian ministry of finance for late 2013 and late 2021, the average salary is about the same when accounting for UAH/USD exchange rates and inflation.

I agree, I also think the failed protests in Belarus were a driving factor. He could see what an uprising might look like and that time was limited.

Not necessarily correct. The reason of the invasion might be because of russian adherence to the heartland theory, creating defensive depth.

Might be Putin's megalomania, need for approval rating back home, maybe the oil prices rose and they took the opportunity, maybe to prevent Ukraine from joining the EU/NATO.

Could be a thousand and one differing things, or all of them at once.

What is correct? No one but Putin (and maybe not even him) knows.

Putin is the byproduct of Russia’s experience with the ‘Westernization’ process

You are actually right, but it is not contradictive in any way to what I wrote.

'Westernization' of Ukraine is a problem for Putin, since Russians could realize that Russia can have a much better government that would make life of normal people better (now hundreds of them die in Ukraine every day, while oligarchs rob the nation).

Putin got into power since 'westernization' of Russia failed (also helped that KGB blew up some apartments). Different thing is that this 'westernization' was poorly done if not sabotaged from the start. Also the clique that rules Russia (including Boris Yeltzin) was never interested in 'westernizing" Russia. They just wanted to be rich and powerful. Gorbachev was the one that tried to move the country forward, one thing is if the country was even ready for that, other thing is that in many ways he failed.

Also Ukraine is not Russia. Ukrainians are the ones who can decide what will their country do - and they decided to move closer to the West.

The westernization of Ukraine is well funded only because The West is interested in defeating Putin. For Russians if they capitulate again there will be no enemy against which for them to be well funded by the west, and it will again be just as terrible as the first time. The countries in the middle have to hope of playing both sides, but for Russians there is no other side to rally with the west against.

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