Erik Hoel on Effective Altruism, Utilitarianism, and the Repugnant Conclusion
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It’s so tiring to see this quibbling over what the absolute best giving philosophy is when there is such ample opportunity for individuals to make a difference in the world.
It’s like watching someone in a pie eating contest lose because they spent the first 10 minutes deciding what the optimal first bite would be, then convincing themselves that optimal first bites are actually a form the Repugnant Conclusion which will ruin all their future meals.
You can do more than you are. You SHOULD do more than you are. You KNOW the malaria nets are better than the donation to the local soccer team. We don’t need perfect knowledge of a situation to start improving it, and boy oh boy do we need to start improving the world.
If you don’t want to call yourself an effective altruist, that’s fine, it doesn’t matter. But don’t let this petty quibbling over the most extreme examples of giving let you stop yourself from making a $300 monthly donation to a charity with good reviews on Charity Navigator.
I most certainly don't know that. The more local, the more immediate, the less distance between action and effect, the less unintended consequences, the better.
2) I use the heuristic that where there are more participants and intermediaries, it is more likely that something ugly will happen even if the original intentions were noble, which is already a big if.
3) I prefer improving my own neighborhood which also affects me, to some abstract global goal which I find less tangible.
EDIT: 4) I am put off by the grandiosity of "saving lives" far away, and I prefer more modest goals, e.g. provide a warm soup for the local soccer team.
For Malaria, there is not even a debate that it historically was a very widespread disease with high impact in economy and also in warfare. It is estimated that 60000 US soldiers died to Malaria alone in WW II.
If you were the family facing malaria, and someone tried to donate the nets to you, would you sell them and donate the proceeds to their local soccer club?
And certainly no dorky nerds unable to comprehend human reality and attempting to force everyone in their abstract streamlined toy-reality with Philosophy 101 word games will change my mind.
Giving 10% is practical for many and would make an enormous difference in the world. Seems like a good baseline.
You can’t become a billionaire without f* lot of people and exploiting the system’s loopholes. There’s no way to be a moral billionaire. In fact, by definition, every billionaire is a dangerous psychopat (normal people would stop focusing on earning money pass a given amount. You can’t be intellectually sane and a billionnaire).
Every billioniare is a policy failure.
So now, we have those dangerous psychopats who f* the system for money who try to justify their action by using the money in a way that they find morally good according to their own f** up moral values. Which means that they get even more power than just money: they start to define what is good and what is bad.
The only sane way to give money is to let the community decide how to spend money.
That’s called taxes.
Strangely enough, every single billionaire is against paying taxes. Because they consider themselves morally superior.
I agree that government are corrupts. I agree that democracy has lot of failures. But between a system which is not perfect and a dangerous psychopat who consider himself superior to any democratically elected government, I know which one is the worst for our future.
There are plenty of truly evil capitalists if you want to look for them, but many just aren't.
Economy isn't zero sum game, like the truly evil communists would have you believe. Capitalism let's people vote continuously with their wallets. J.K. rowing might have gotten a big paycheck from everything, but much of the economic value dispersed to everyone else. And people wanted those resources in the hands of people making the movies.
Nothing is free. There's always a price, and many times the margins of profits are just the margins required for stability anyway. And stability always comes with a price for risk, and it's always the investors paying the risk. What turned out as positive outcome could come from a negative expectation value distribution. There's nothing morally wrong from making a profit especially if you took a risk with negative expectation outcome. You expect these people to give you for free, but if they gave you for free on success they have negative expected outcome and they will never do it. That's like expecting people to give you money, and that's rude.
This is a systemic failure to be sure, but a failure nonetheless. The end result is these people ending up with massive surpluses of resources and power that others desperately need, simply because they have accumulated a larger amount of "money" from the luck of their circumstances.
In the old days, these failures were mediated by debt jubilees, potlatches and such. More recently, we've moved on to wealth taxes, although these are a poor shadow of what we had before to ensure a minimum level of equality in a society.
I totally get it if the donations aren't actually doing anything good, but most EA donations go to global health initiatives that save lives, in quite large numbers (I think SBFs did not, however).
Edit: I would also get it if donations were being used as an anti-tax argument, but I don't see that being the case? I've never seen any billionaire say their donations should make them exempt from taxes. I believe eg. Gates and Buffet both favour higher taxes for the rich (publicly, at least). Sure there are anti-tax billionaires, and billionaires who make large charitable donations, but I'd guess the correlation between the two things was actually negative.
In the early days, people who became too wealthy were killed by the rest of the villagers. Potlatches were a natural response to this because equalizing society reduced the resentment and also raised the prestige of the givers. Charity giving is the modern equivalent of this, but in a severely watered down form (they still get to spend their entire lives in unfathomable wealth).
With 2 million USD in personal wealth, you can dump it into safe, passive investment vehicles and life comfortably off the proceeds for the rest of your life in a first world country. Tens of millions or more is simply avarice, and needs to be discouraged in order to mitigate the steady slide into extreme inequality that comes as a natural consequence of unequal luck or opportunity over time.
Can you make the case for me that eg. 250k preventable deaths is a better outcome than accepting a billion dollar donation from a very rich person?
Then there's the "what's mine is mine" argument, that whatever was acquired legally is by rights yours and nobody can say otherwise. In America, this philosophy is very prevalent.
> Can you make the case for me that eg. 250k preventable deaths is a better outcome than letting somebody donate a billion dollars?
I don't understand... why is this a dichotomy? I must have missed something in the conversation somewhere?
Those are the options for EA-type organizations, aren't they? You accept the money and use it to further your EA goals, or you refuse to accept the money and accept that you're passing up the opportunity to help a lot of people.
It's admittedly blurred because a proportion of EA donation goes towards "growing the movement" or controversial "long-termist" causes (as with most or all of SBF's donations aiui), but most (I think 68% last time I looked) goes towards effective global health initiatives.
So sure, I get that by refusing to accept the billionaire money you'd send some sort of anticapitalist message. You could tweet about it and probably get a lot of likes. I see why people would like that part, in isolation. But, is that really worth hundreds of thousands of lives? I find it really odd (and frankly horrifying) that anybody would even have to think about that question for longer than a millisecond.
250k is admittedly on the high side of how many lives you could save for $1bn. It's in the ballpark though.
Look at the Gates foundation : they finance vaccine in Africa, which is good. How to they spend it? By buying overpriced vaccines from companies in which they have interest. They spent a lot of money to avoid the COVID vaccine becoming open source to avoid a precedent, killing thousands of people in low-income countries. (Bill Gates has ideologically always been against the notion of sharing any knowledge, remember "Letter to hobbyists".
Saving lives is just what they put on the marketing cover. Truth is that they are spending for their own prestige and also to "feel-good" about themselves.
It’s normal. It’s how we are wired as human. When you give money to charities, you simply maximize the "feel good" and minimize the "feel guilty" (which is why most charities are nowadays essentially huge marketing organizations). There’s no way for an individual to really do "good" on a large scale with money. The best use of money is to share it as much as possible and let people decide themselves what they want to do with it. (every single study about effectiveness of fighting poverty came to the simple conclusion that you only need to give money to the poors. It’s the best possible use of money. But we hate to do that because we don’t really want to fight poverty. We want to feel good about ourselves and maybe gain a bit of prestige)
I am fairly confident that stopping people dying of preventable diseases is an actual thing that happens in the real world. There's certainly prestige and feel-good involved in saving lives, but are you sure that makes saving lives bad? What's an acceptable exchange rate? If somebody saves a thousand lives and feels only slightly good about it, would that be acceptable? How many people would you have to watch die of preventable diseases, before you'd start to think it was OK for somebody to feel good about preventing them, or even enjoy a bit of prestige?
> every single study about effectiveness of fighting poverty came to the simple conclusion that you only need to give money to the poors
Givewell's current list[0] of top "high-impact, cost-effective" charities has two Malaria charities, vitamin A supplements and cash incentives for vaccinations. GiveDirectly (which "gives money to the poors") was in the list until a couple of years ago.
The main take is that "doing good "is not their motivation. They are pursuing their own selfish interests. And when those interests align with the general good, they use that opportunity to do some marketing and say "look, we are doing good." Which is true but they fail to mention "because it’s in our own interest and we are also doing very nasty stuff in our own interest but we will, of course, try to hide it as much as we could".
Even if they are doing 90% good stuff, it is really scary to realize that those people have so much power because they had the luck to won at what Cory Doctorow call the "lucky orifice lottery" (they had rich parent then they compounded on that to become even richer). Which means we can’t trust them, we should not trust them. Elon Musk is an excellent example : what he was doing seemed good (electric cars, space stuff) until you realize what he really did (founding the hyperloop project as a scam to prevent, on purpose, any big scale public transportation project that would compete with Tesla).
At what point was Jeff supposed to give away his ownership of Amazon? Who should he have given it to? Would they then get to run the company, would Jeff keep running it?
J K Rowling wrote some books that lots of people liked and accepted a modest payment for each copy, making her wealthy.
To check, are you saying it's not good enough even if she decides to give away the money now, because she should never have had that much financial power in the first place, to decide what to do with so much?
If so, what should she have done instead? I think a wildly successful published author can only avoid getting rich by giving away their royalties. Declining to take royalties in the first place is just another form of giving them away, and that decision exercises equivalent financial power to taking them and giving them to someone else.
Same with making the books freely available, free to copy: that's exercising the power to give away the wealth to readers who would have paid, instead of someone else.
So taking less money in the first place is not a way out of your ethical constraint. It's just another form of being rich and giving it away, but with a faster cycle.
In some sense it's not her fault she acquired financial power, except in the sense that she chose to make something lots of people loved enough to be willing to pay for, which is hardly something to criticise. The power simply exists by virtue of large numbers of people being willing to pay without coercion.
If there's no way for a person to avoid having financial power as a result of some welcome action they did, not even by choosing to give every penny of their wealth away while earning it, I don't think it's fair or ethical to blame them for having that unavoidable power, nor sensible to deem them a psychopath. If you're going to judge the person, better to judge how they exercise the power they have, not that they have it.
Michael Jordan thought selling shoes was more important than making a statement denouncing a racist man running for office in his home state.
JK used her money to stifle fans free speech and fair use with lawsuits galore if she disagreed that they were "true fans".
Those are the worst things I can think of for those 3. I don't think it rises to the level of psychopathy but it certainly is questionable behavior.
So, let's say you start a company. Then raise some VC money. You start getting users and things are going really well, but you aren't quite profitable. You see a path to that but need to make investments to get there. So you raise another round of money. However, as you are doing well, the valuation of the company is set to three billion. As the founder, you still own 50% of the shares.
You are technically now a billionaire. Of course, just on paper but Forbes will still put you on the "overnight billionaire" list.
What are you supposed to do in this case ? When exactly did you go from "not psychopath" to "psychopath"?
1. Found a unicorn. Congratulations!
2. Get a tax bill
3. Either loan against your shares (good luck) or(and probably even if you do get a loan)
4. Go public early, selling your shares and let others partake in the companies growth
Alternatively, give your shares to employees, donate, whatever. It's not really rocket science, just tax wealth (radical markets proposes a nice way to get honest self assessments...) and as a side benefit, you benefit employees by creating much more incentive against staying private forever
So if you IPO at 1b ( probably the valuation will drop after ipoing early but ok ) you are not considered a "psychopath" ?
I'm sure all the employees with stock options will be thrilled as well after they drop in value.
From what I observe, his personal motivation really does seem to be “build the most powerful social media company” and not “accumulate as much personal wealth as possible”. I think the VR bet is a good example of that - any sane CEO trying to maximize shareholder value would have scrapped it long ago.
I’m not saying Mark is a great person, far from it, but I think it’s worth scrutinizing how billionaires got in their positions. There’s a lot amount of difference, in my mind, between Bill Gates and John Bogle.
That is to say, in many ways I agree with your assessment, but let's be careful not to over-generalize.
Just to point out two very real examples that run counter to this thinking:
Recent studies of benefit programs that give college scholarships to top academic performers it was found that these programs are entirely dominated by girls with essentially zero male participation. This was unexpected, unintended, and raises some major issues regarding gender balance and equity. But in the context set up in this talk both of these outcomes are essentially the same and not differentiable.
This is also all hovering near the issue of how best to execute philanthropy. One of the big issues in this space is how much workers involved should be paid. Currently dominant thinking is that charity work as good and wholesome and no money should be wasted and so pay for charity workers tends to be a fraction of what people with similar skills would make at the same or similar jobs in industry. However, experimentation has shown that paying charity workers similar amounts to what people earn in industry jobs results in increased productivity and mission successes. So there is a very interesting open question about exactly how much charity workers should be paid. It seems that in this piece the argument is being made that the entire issue is fundamentally grotesque and immoral.
So the issues related to making philanthropy are real and do not in general involve trollies, drowning children, people as potential organ banks willing or not, or the bulldozing of cities. This is really just another sad and tired example of philosophers completely missing the point of pragmatic action.
If someone can do the math and tell me this charity would on average save X lives while that will save Y with your money, that already helps me a lot compared to just donating to Red Cross or whoever because I saw their ad without considering strong alternatives.
This is a kantian imperative type concern. The question is: at the very highest level, should we use this principle /to restructure our society/. At the scale of influence of these schools of thought have the impact is unintuitive because it challenges the makeup of the normative fabric that society tacitly exists within. The more you apply the principle the less familiar notion of charity even becomes. The new thing that emerges is a purer and purer reflection of the ideological core of utilitarianism. As this slow move begins it seems wise to ask ‘do we want to move towards a society structured according to this principle?’.
The fact that the logic holds in a simple ‘charity is a fixed structure, I am already committed to giving X amount away, I am torn between two choices, equivocation and metric comparison is possible between these two similar options, an independent organisation has scored the effectiveness of these charities, which should I choose?’ Kind of does not relate to the complexity of the problem if you take the logic to the level of society wide acceptance as guiding principle.
I’m not saying EA really has the power to guide our /entire/ society but it is so enormously well funded that it is certainly a conversation worth having. It was the point of this podcast to discuss those more complex implications of utilitarianism in general which you have not considered noteworthy.
Helping more people > helping fewer people.
Helping some people > killing some people.
This is not hard philosophy. It's like straight out of the Kalama Sutta. You know what is blameful. You know what is blameless.
Your take seems to be that there is no complexity, no square to be circled in trying to apply vague principles like "do maximum good" to a discussion of how to tackle all of the worlds problems. To me that seems like a very unserious take.
To me what it means to properly engage with this question is to discuss what we mean by good, to discuss the notion of quantifiability, etc.. I think avoiding these discussions is just a game of whackamole - as best you try to stamp it out you never escape the thorny issue that so much complexity hides in our silly contradictory human language notions of things.
Our vague human language notions serve a purpose but to be uncritical of them or even deny their importance when they are doing the heavy lifting of your argument seems strange to me. Notions like 'do more good' are very vague loose suggestions and so their value is only realised if also applied in a loose human common sense manner. Utilitarianism is the opposite of this loose human common sense approach, it demands your loose notions removed of their blurry edges and inherent contradictions and if you succeed in this unnatural transfiguration you will unhappily discover later on that the contradictions just pop up in your new solution because when you force natural language into an unnatural rigid form like that you find that you are no longer saying that which you thought.
I would love to know what in particular about my perspective you find interesting / flawed. I have tried to make arguments that aren't too flowery but if you find my chains of logic unsatisfactory please let me know where, although don't expect to find any very very clean lines of formal reasoning because I am writing in a conversational style.
So okay, you don't like utilitarianism. Let's try deontology for size. Deontology works effectively to following a set of rules and duties, consequences be damned. So if our rules say you don't steal, then you don't. Don't murder. Etc.
But the snag is that since you don't care about the consequences, any consequences, of any size are irrelevant. So for instance, if contraception is deemed bad, then no amount of negative consequences has any relevance. Families are brought down to crushing poverty, orphanages are overflowing, starving children are wandering on the streets? Absolutely not a reason to change that rule.
Also, where utilitarianism can make iffy tradeoffs (eg, this particular person would be better dead because we'd benefit from it), there's usually some practical limit to that. If you ever can do that under deontology you can do it on an unlimited scale. If you ever work out that "those people" aren't really people legally speaking and you can just kill one of them, then you can kill them all you want, any time you want, on any scale you want.
Point being, most any system followed indiscriminately has problems because people are people and will look for loopholes and ways to exploit any rules to benefit.
>> Indeed, this very essay, which I’d long planned to write some version of, is coming out now because the same effective altruist organization is offering a $20,000 prize to whomever gives the best critique of effective altruism this month.
I think this sentence tells you everything you need to know about this guy’s philosophy. The article also ends with him suggesting, as an “alternative”, to give a money to fundamentally utilitarian/effectively altruistic sources (AI safety research) and to fund projects that he’s interested in under the premise that these underfunded scientific fields are “awesome and epic”.
He's had Michael Pollen on about psychedelics and I thought he was pretty fair and engaged considering he's a conservative Jewish guy in his 60's that leans more right than left (though with libertarian beliefs, but mostly economic ones).
It's a very academic podcast (Russ is an economics professor at the Hoover Institute), but his podcasts on the financial crisis (I think there are over a dozen) are really good if you want to understand how all the stuff works under the hood. He had former heads of the Fed on, numerous professors who are globally recognized as monetary experts, etc.
And the podcast archives go back to like 2006.
I have no problem looking nerds dead in the eye and say "I have no respect for you and your abstract games in your toy fantasy world".
* EDIT: high-IQ sounds too flattering; I meant just-smart-enough to vomit articles, books, PhD theses, insufferable "discussions" in tasteless EA-parties crying about "why reality should work different" - throwing a temper tantrum and stomping their feet because normal humans do not want or respect the toy games they play in their toy worlds
Shouldn't instincts be subject to reason and falsification, regardless of whether they're normal? If you can find little to no rational justification for preferring your instinctive choice, shouldn't you seriously consider overriding that instinct?
You mean the kind of instincts that justified slavery, that oppresses women, that justifies spousal abuse and racial or ethnic hatred? Yeah sorry, "instincts" have orders of magnitude more failure modes than reason and language.
Utilitarianism requires additional assumptions to decide between many people in subsistence and few people living carefree.
You are introducing (I suspect) such an addictional constraint, comparable to the Pareto criterion that forbids making individuals worse off in a trade off. However, accepting/demanding/proscribing such trade offs that accept making someone worse off are central to most utilitarian theories.
https://twitter.com/esyudkowsky/status/1497157447219232768
> Go three-quarters of the way from deontology to utilitarianism and then stop. You are now in the right place. Stay there at least until you have become a god.
You say that you wouldn't do something like that, but the core of the question is "why?": what would be the utilitarian argument against going that way? You could argue that "happiness" should be a measure, at which point you need to contend with the problem of an "utility monster" [2]: what if it turns out that (say) Americans enjoy a dollar more than shell-shocked Ukranian refugees? Should we optimize the happiness of the Americans? How about those people with negative happiness, should we simply euthanize them?
The fault, according to the interview, is that you can't treat happiness and well-being as a matter of sums and averages. If you kill a man to open an ice-cream factory, no amount of happy children should absolve you of that crime.
The argument is basically effective altruism, taken to its conclusion, leads to some pretty morally questionable actions.
It's not arguing being altruistic is bad. It's just that effective altruism has a bunch of pretty big holes in it.
Another good example is the framework used to determine cost-effectiveness of drugs. At first glance it makes sense - just calculate [benefit]/[cost].
But then you realize that for some diseases, the cost baseline is really low because, well, people die when they are babies. So the model falls apart for some real life situations where the model says the ideal outcome is to just let people die because it's "cost effective"
https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/why-i-am-not-an-effective-al...
- Maybe a future billionaire -
>Then you will be delighted/horrified to find out that the effective altruism community doesn't feel the need to make quantifiable justifications for how they spend their own donations, as evidenced by this $20k grant they gave someone to learn to ride a bike and think about AI[1].
>That's about 3853 to 4090 mosquito nets' worth of donations, using GiveWell's numbers for the Against Malaria Foundation
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/CJJDwgyqT4gXktq6g/...