Przewodów village in Poland hit by two Russian missiles, two dead
wiadomosci.radiozet.pl
wiadomosci.radiozet.pl
Edit: Another data point re accident: MH17 [3], Iran Air Flight 655 [4]. Both of those still yielded nothing.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_India%E2%80%93Pakistan_mi...
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Zagreb_Tu-141_crash
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17
Otherwise we can wait for the next "accident" where Russia fires missiles into NATO countries and murders people. All the while they're committing war crimes in Ukraine, day by day, for the world to see.
Why should we start caring now or sacrifice global stability because of two errant rockets? Your fear-based rhetoric about other NATO countries being targeted because of two errant rockets (rockets are unguided munitions btw, not cruise missiles) is ridiculous.
Stop being a war monger.
Given the state of the Russian armed forces, it's not entirely surprising their missile accuracy is in the tens of miles.
No matter how much technology advances, warfare still involves incompetent idiots making choices under pressure based on partial and incorrect information. Sometimes those choices go wrong in a catastrophic way.
In questions like this, there should be some demonstration of attempts to avoid human errors. Here we have a massive attack on the whole territory, including regions at the border. We can wait for next actions from Russia - if they'd bring apologies and some good offers - but meantime it's a good idea to keep reaction going. After all, it's the approach proven to be most reliable when dealing with current Russia.
If I told you that a surgeon made two fatal mistakes, you can't conclude from that information whether or not he's made a lot, a little, or an average number of attempts to avoid human error in his work.
Putin is losing right now, just continue to let him keep losing. That is going to be the course of action right now which is most damaging to him.
Unfortunately Ukrainians are going to have to do a lot of dying for us. We should definitely remember that debt in the future.
And there's historical precedent for this since a million or so Vietnamese died defeating us in a proxy war (and now we're friends and like buying Pho for lunch).
You also sound like you're regurgitating a talking point. That one works better against arguments that we should do some kind of negotiated settlement that gives Putin territory and rewards him for launching this war.
Your original comment called for staying the course in response to an escalation by Putin. That sounds much like rewarding him to me.
What this will only accomplish is another military aid package to Ukraine and who knows what it will be this time? Longer range ATACMS and MLRS rockets for HIMARS? Also THAAD and Patriot deployments to Poland.
Alternatively, NATO could say that they can shoot down any Russian missiles since Russia cannot be trusted and has bad aim.
It's really suspicious that two missiles hit Poland. If it were one missile, it could be due to some kind of component failure that caused the missile to go off course.
Two missiles are not likely to both fail, so that suggests Poland was targeted on purpose.
>My sources in the services say that what hit Przewowo is most likely the remains of a rocket shot down by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/mariuszgierszew/status/15925955074275450...
40 miles from the border
What scares me is that everyone is speculating and jumping to conclusions without hard facts. Behaving this way can easily escalate some trivial situation into something more serious.
According to [1], Pentagon spokesperson Patrick Ryder said "we don't have any information at this time to corroborate those [press] reports"
[1] - https://www.dw.com/en/nato-investigating-reports-of-russian-...
It's a bit of a waste of a sophisticated rocket, and the warhead is smaller, but the ones they fire tend to be reaching EOL anyway due to age. That, or lack of better alternatives.
So could still be Russian.
Stanisław Jerzy Lec said that it's shameful to suspect when you're certain. Russia has a well established reputation, so while investigation is needed, we can safely assume it's Russian rockets. We of course will be surprised if it happen to be false, but before that it should be logical to follow most likely explanation.
But there is no certainty here, just speculation.
"we can safely assume it's Russian rockets"
It's dangerous to assume anything when it could lead to WW3.
I honestly don't know ho to defend myself about that? Being ignorant to news is probably not good idea. But finding relevant information nowadays require significant amount of time. That is luxury that most people cannot effort so I guess majority easily jump to any kind of trends.
Maybe Putin is testing the waters to see how NATO will respond?
What better way to see the limits of missile interception, how leaders will react, how unified or divided NATO members are, etc.
Nothing suggests Poland was targeted on purpose besides your fear-based rhetoric / war mongering.
"Russia cannot be trusted and has bad aim".
This war has turned everyone into a bunch of Russophobes and has really helped to shine a light on how many racist-ass people live in Eastern Europe. Not really surprising though since they hero worship this guy - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stepan_Bandera - in Ukraine.
1. Confirmation of armed incident taking place.
2. Government considers triggering art.4 after consulting US.
3. Some parts of Armed Forces are on high alert.
No further details."
https://twitter.com/SaladinAlDronni/status/15926278761214320...
"Polish Govt spox:
- investigating reasons behind the explosion
- two people dead
- military readiness level raised in response
- President Duda spoke with Stoltenberg tonight
- Poland considering whether to call for NATO discussions under Article 4
- Cabinet meeting to follow"
"Polish media reported that two people died Tuesday afternoon after a projectile struck an area where grain was drying in Przewodów, a Polish village near the border with Ukraine."
ZET seems a legitimate source, but it's still a single journalist and some twitter posts.
More coverage at
https://wiadomosci.radiozet.pl/Polska/przewodow-rakiety-spad...
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/explosion-kills-two-pol...
From the BBC [0]: Unverified pictures indicate it was from an S-300, used by both Ukraine and Russia.
https://mobile.twitter.com/prezydentpl/status/15928356684260...
What do you mean by "this"? Do you mean the attack on Poland, the continuing war on Ukraine, or mutually assured destruction in general? What do you mean by "deescalated"? Do you mean someone should surrender? Who and why would they?
Because the alternative is everybody dies.
The West largely took the "deescalate" approach when Russia invaded Georgia, seized part of Moldova, and took the Donbas then Crimea. It's very clear that these sorts of deescalations also serve to embolden future attempts.
Ala Ender's Game, the best deescalation may be to give the bully a spanking they'll never come back from.
Assuming that works without sparking a nuclear war, that might be a real option... but there's a very real risk of a nuclear war (accidental or otherwise) breaking out over this.
Just how much nuclear chicken are NATO and Russia willing to play?
I'm afraid the world is going to find out before long.
When someone gets blackmailed, it's rarely good to give in, because that tells the blackmailer they've got leverage. They get $100 out of you, and you're back to square one; they can demand another $100 now knowing it's worth at least that much. Eventually you wind up having to say no, and the consequence you were trying to avoid happens anyways.
Nuclear blackmail is the same. At some point, you have to draw a line in the sand and say "nope, you can't take that". If it's not the Ukranian border, it's the Polish one in a few years.
If you aren't ever willing to militarily confront Russia, even over an actual attack, because of the possibility of nuclear war, you thereby grant Russia—or any other nuclear power now or in the future—unlimited license for aggression and conquest.
So, no justice fo the dead. "Sorry".
I'm glad that pacifists don't play a role in politics where it matters, or we'd long ago given up all hope of freedom.
This is a "we had to destroy the village to save it" type of situation.
There's no freedom if everyone is dead.
Appeasement does not work, especially when you're dealing with a fascist state. You can sell out Poland today, but you will still not stop Russia from "accidentally" attacking the Baltic States tomorrow.
Whatever you imagine that's going to look like, it's going to be better than the world ending.
Not that I think appeasement would work, but I think a chance of freedom is more important than a life of servitude for a lot of the west (most?)
It's horror on a scale that's just unimaginable to virtually anyone who hasn't been through a major war.. and it'll be infinitely worse than that.
It's just sheer insanity that we're getting so close to that and some people are just egging us on to total destruction.
So if Putin wanted the entire world except China and NK, you’d give it to him to stop from destroying everything?
People hate on Biden now, but if he lets something like that slide, he’d be torn apart on the White House lawn.
There are no winners in an all-out nuclear war.
Russian policy of the last N decades is to start a conflict, scare everyone about nuclear war, then "de-escalate" and "reset".
This is fine, so long as the bombs aren't falling on your house.
Makes sense when one stops to think about it.
First of all, deescalation and dialogue is what already prevented nuclear war several times since nuclear weapons were invented. We could go as far as saying that it’s the one single thing we know that works.
Claiming that it’s precisely this DE-escalation which increases risk is akin to claiming that having sex increases the risk of terminal virginity. Seriously, what were you even thinking when you wrote that?
Second of all, what does this situation have to do with hostage taking?! Who is the hostage? What is the ransom? Who is the party paying it?
What it shows is that they dont stop. Now they want an entire very big country. So this is the line in the sand. Let them cross this and Poland and Romania might be next. And then maybe Hungary and Germany. And so on.
An wanna be empire/dictator does not stop at your border because they like you or they have mercy. They stop for reinforcements and then move on to you.
De-escalation happens gradually and with steps taken by both sides. You may have noticed that there’s mixed signals coming from the US since Russia retreated from Kherson.
Strengthen air defences. In practice, this means placing SAMs closer to Russia, which isn’t exactly stabilising.
Give longer ranged munitions, like ATACMS, to Ukraine, along with intelligence pinpointing missile launch sites and let nature take its course.
How do you know that? Maybe it was intentional to test out how Nato responds.
Of course it's valuable. Our air defenses were, if not evaded, pierced. Biden's "fully prepared" and "every single inch" warning was challenged. That, in turn, lays groundwork for intimidating e.g. the Baltics.
If we don't interfere with the attacks at all, then aren't we effectively letting them get away with attacking a NATO state? And if we do that, won't they get even bolder?
If anything, it gives NATO a fig leaf to give the Ukranians weapons systems they've held off thus far on, like ATACMS.
Cui prodest?
Hint: where else S300 are in service, besides the Ukraine?
That aside, two missiles supposedly hit; if one's an S-300, that strengthens the theory the Ukranians intercepted a Russian cruise missile.
The Ukranians success on the battlefield makes false flag desperation pretty unlikely, especially with the risks to their aid in getting caught.
Whatever happened was almost certainly unintentional.
Cruise missiles doesn't fly in a duet. AA missiles on other hand are often fired in pairs to increase the change of successful interception.
> strengthens the theory the Ukranians intercepted
If there was a cruise missile (what it needed to do there? hit a Polish tractor? Because it makes sense?) then it would be or a giant hole much bigger than that tiny one on the photos or it would be found more-less intact somewhere near. Yet we have only one video of the tractor and a couple photos of an unknown debris.
> false flag desperation pretty unlikely
This type of operations are ... coordinated with partners, as Russians would say.
Personally, between false flag, Ukrainian AA and Russian cruise missile my Occam says it was Ukraine AA doing whatever they did yet ended in Poland.
BTW all AA missiles have a self-liquidator which triggers by a command from the ground station OR automatically on a given altitude. For two AA missiles to go who knows where and not to self-liquidate is a sign of anything but normal. Which begs the question where are photos of the second hit?
NB: despite what even the first report claimed what missiles hit a grain storage - there are no photos of it yet.
> "The Ukraine" is a bit of a tell.
Oh, I knew you will get triggered, it was a low hanging fruit. How often do you wake up and think "Today is the day when my country should be written THAT way in a language what doesn't have any resemblance to my own. By the way only 1% of population of my country even know that language and 1% of that 1% could even understand the difference"? Did you ever wondered who guessed that change to AP style guide?
Anyway, latest headlines are saying things like "Poland missile ‘unlikely’ to have been fired from Russia" so the media did, in fact, manage to correct the misleading initial reports within about 12 hours.
Occam's razor tells me that this was an accident, just like MH17 and Iran Air Flight 655 were.
Notice how neither Iran nor Malaysia 'escalated' in response to those attacks against them.
Mass mobilization on the multi-millions level would destroy his public support, and raising it was the whole reason for starting the war.
How many of these Russians have been both conscripted, and are speaking freely, either to you personally, or to the press?
The formula of war changes when you have skin in the game. I don't see the ones abroad running home to enlist, and I don't see the ones at home speaking freely, because of fear of consequences.
To Poland? They will rather go to WW3 than apologize to Poland.