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Comment by SSJPython | Hacker News Reader

Very interesting. Maybe Buffett isn't too concerned about the geopolitical risks to TSMC? There's been tons of chatter about China militarily reunifying with Taiwan by 2027 but I'm guessing Buffett thinks it's all hot air? Because if China does invade Taiwan, then TSMC would be the first to suffer.

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I'd think the CCP would be wary about killing the golden goose with TSMC. Plus there is currently a very prominent example of why attempting to annex neighbors is not a good idea in the modern world. Ruin to economy, reputation, world standing, and even military prestige are all possible. Absolute embarrassment.

Most people that don't have the golden goose, don't care about killing it.

If your enemy has a golden goose and you don't, there isn't much stopping you from killing it.

About 70% of the chips that China’s extremely lucrative electronics industry uses come from TSMC though. They might not have the golden goose that is TSMC, but one of their own golden geese relies on it to keep running.

Yeah, except for recent legal changes are making that number go down.

Yes, but if you know that you can probably steal the enemy's golden goose if you tried hard enough, I would think you wouldn't kill it outright.

CCP is better off keeping the world's best chip fab in a region they claim to be their territory.

Didn't stop them with Alibaba. Have you seen the Chinese stock market performance this year?

The ccp is playing the long game. I don't think they really care about short term economic loses. I mean look at what the did with hk.invading a island is hard and they probably need to worry about America. Otherwise Taiwan is probably in trouble.

> The ccp is playing the long game.

It's more of a medium game. A dictatorship can plan 5-10 years out. But they can't exist indefinitely. By design, there is no succession plan.

Handing off the country to your child is a time honored succession plan for highly authoritarian regimes. From Kings to Kims the only successor you can trust is your own blood, especially if you've set the country up as a cult with your family as deities.

China's goal is to become self sufficient, but it'll take time. SMIC did ship 7nm chips faster than expected however.

I don't think having your reputation, world standing or military prestige be ruined is a deterrent. Countries that are oil exporters are raking in the money and are able to pursuit their geopolitical goals. Now is probably one of the best times to do it considering the greater global turmoil and energy crisis. Take a look at Russia & Azerbaijan, more will come.

TSMC is building a huge fab here in America. It's a couple/few years out, but that would do a lot to alleviate this risk. And it could be rushed if it were prioritized as an American National Security Project.

https://topics.amcham.com.tw/2022/08/tsmc-prepares-american-...

s/elevate/alleviate

i think.

Engrish is my first language....

I'm confused: do you think China would be more likely to take Taiwan if it saw that nexus of economic leverage starting to diffuse?

No. I think the CCP wants Taiwan indifferent of it being an economic powerhouse, or a broken 3rd world island. Failure to integrate Taiwan has been a stain on the CCP system, and it's not a system that can afford any stains.

All I'm pointing out is should Taiwan be invaded, TSMC stands to be in a position to receive a significant infusion of government cash to bring that fab online ASAP. And once that FAB is completed the systemic risk of China to TSMC evaporates, and at that point I believe that TSMC goes to the moon.

The fab TSMC is building in America is such a small amount of their volume as to make almost no difference. And it won’t even be a leading node by the time it’s built.

You can still get a lot done with a 5,7,10,14,etc nm node.

The 2027 date is not actually real:

https://twitter.com/MikeBlack114/status/1571401031539367939

> Maybe Buffett isn't too concerned about the geopolitical risks to TSMC?

My first thought. I wonder if this makes any action by CCP less or more likely, as well as the possible intervention by the US??

If all the chip fabs in Taiwan are wiped out, the remaining fabs in the rest of the world are going to be insanely profitable, right?

If this happens within the next two years, it is probably devastating for TSMC and a bad investment by Buffett. After two years, ???

I don't know whether he's concerned or not, but you don't get high stocks returns without taking on risk.

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