Am I wrong?
FWIW, the delivery estimates displayed on the Tesla web site for cars currently in production are pretty accurate. Also, if you order a Performance/Plaid model, you get to the front of the queue. ;-)
> I suspect the spot price for a Tesla now and here is also fluctuating, opaque, and subject to negotiation.
In that case, you're buying a used one from a dealer, so that would be true.
The annoying thing with dealers though is that when it comes to Tesla, they often have no clue what they're actually selling, or they're trying to rip off naive customers. I've seen them try to sell base Model 3's for $55K. For just a couple thousand more, you could get a brand new Model 3 Performance delivered in 2-4 weeks.
On the other hand, dealerships also sold future cars - and sometimes still do - when you want to have something customized.
So, there's no difference besides difference in demand.