When we got serious about electrification a century ago, we also damaged or destroyed a whole generation of of great observatories with our light pollution. Was that a good trade? The night skies ruined for half the population. Important scientific efforts pushed to more distant and expensive locations. But also, electricity for hundreds of millions of people in the blink of an eye! I think I agree with the early 20th century's prioritization there.
Astronomy is going to lose another generation of observatories and see degraded capabilities in some survivors because, just as it was the right thing to do with electrification, bringing broadband to hundreds of millions of people who live in under-served rural communities delivers more progress to society than the small fraction of time sensitive science that may be lost, interrupted, or delayed as we pivot planning and resources to even more exciting and capable telescopes safe distances (for now) from ever-increasing challenge of local light and radio pollution.
And just as it did a century ago, astronomy is going to move further away from civilization, this time to Earth orbit and the Moon. Today we're capable of putting 5 times the Hubble mass into orbit with a single launch for less than $100 million. Within a decade, that'll likely drop to maybe $10 million to lift something like 10 times Hubble's mass in a single go. We can have large-scale orbital telescopes if we want them. And they can be affordable, well considerably more affordable than was historically possible for orbital observatories. Because launch will be dirt cheap and super-sized, these telescopes won't have to be optimized for size and weight or even long term survivability. Sure, the precision optics aren't getting cheaper quickly, but every other component and set of manufacturing tolerances can be had or done much cheaper. Don't spend 5-10X on that radiation hardened chip. Instead, send up 2 regular priced chips with some extra shielding and software that makes sure they both agree that neither one of them have been hit by a disruptive particle. Aerospace aluminum precision milling and robotic friction stir welding? Screw that, let's stick weld some steel.
Satellites are going to be a significant part of delivering modern broadband to the world's rural populations. LEO Constellations have modest capabilities, limited heavily by the physics of radios. But they can be deployed more swiftly to more people than fiber or cable. In 10 years, we will high speed broadband available for literally all locations on the globe, from at least one but likely several different providers.
Capacity will be the constellation operators' biggest challenge. Governments will increasingly turn to the LEO operators for connecting their hard to reach rural populations, delivering large subsidies and other incentives. The demand will far outstrip what the available spectrum will support. Billions of people will want access to networks that will only be able to support hundreds of millions at best. Whether or not spectrum efficiency will allow satellite constellations to compete in the long run or not, I can't say. But for the next two or three decades for sure they're going to be an increasing presence in the sky. I don't think there's any going back.
So, what about astronomy. Easy, as noted above, we do what we did a century ago and have been doing for ages, we pony up and pay to keep on doing the science, even if it has to be more remote, more expensive, and more difficult. We should commit ourselves, just like we did a century ago, to helping the most affected segments of astronomy move as quickly as possible. We can start by re-designing our in-progress next generation observatories to be either cheap and disposable or permanent and future proof orbital science platforms that we can start launching this decade and the next. And let us also invest in establishing the regular movement of humans to and from the Moon so that we can build scientific outposts and observatories of all kinds, but in particular a few great radio telescopes protected by the Moon itself from Earth's near deafening radio pollution.
This is all within our reach, we have the technology to make it happen and for a modest public and private investment we can do right by the scientific community that brings not only so much understanding, but also such richness and meaning to so many of our lives. All over the world, we must vote in representatives that will support public funding to go hand in hand with charitable and philanthropic spending, and perhaps even inviting commercial investment, to help this noble and enlightening branch of science move forward so that it can continue to help carry our civilization forward.