But also, it's predicting human behaviour, like a trader attempting to get in front of the trade flood. There's going to be pain as a result of further dominoes falling that were propped up against FTX, and this will result in a shark-like media feeding frenzy that will scare off, for years, any (potential) retail traders that weren't already in the game.
You're not wrong, it's just that humans are more emotion driven than logic driven. Logic requires effort and second-order thinking, emotion is passive; involuntary.
There's also the very real distinction between Bitcoin (and Ethereum) and "the rest"; the other fucking thousands of 'projects' that has VC / insider distributions and haven't had the time to decentralise and / spread themselves amongst a large group and still have the ability to be controlled by a central entity.
I'm no Bitcoin maxi, but I'm inching closer, which is not the direction that progress should be taking me, and it's due to fraudsters corrupting the ideals, and seemingly being in The majority as it relates to founding projects and services in the cryptocurrency space.
While FTX & co. don't match the technical blockchain-based definition of crypto, they are what people think of when they talk about the crypto ecosystem, and are part of the crypto hype chain.
If we filter the crypto market to only the true not-my-keys-not-my-coin crowd, the market wouldn't be anywhere near as large and influential as it is today.
I don’t know, I am not into crypto. I assume you might have to ask one of the many thousands of people that have lost untold quantities of money to a nearly infinite number of scams why they might question the practical value of the crypto ecosystem.