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Comment by twawaaay | Hacker News Reader

Isn't it true that the price for gas in Europe is very inelastic at the moment (meaning they will pay pretty much any price to get it) and so any shortage of it will cause dramatic price increase? Also, Europe can't easily switch to another source of gas because they have maxed out everything they could.

This is basically the reason why OPEC restricts oil production, it is just here the same is happening unintentionally by LNG terminal malfunction.

Besides, looking at that graph it looks that the "plunge" is on the order of normal price change noise. Just look at the history from before the "plunge". Clickbait.

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Not sure if your post is trying to contradict the post you are replying to, which made the very good point that what plunged are US gas futures. I assume that yes, this would be very bad news for European gas consumers.

And electricity consumers, since prices usually trend gas prices.

And anyone buys exports manufactured in Europe...

> meaning they will pay pretty much any price to get it

They would buy it at current market rate, which is dropping atm. That's why LNG tankers wait at the coast for a hopefully future higher price.

Is this not diminished by the buyers hedging?

you still need counterparties

Aren't they camped out because Europe's storage is maxed out and the winter so far is mild so it isn't using as much gas?

Yes the heating period ist just now starting as it gets colder.

That's crazy late.

In addition Germany for example sees a huge reduction of consumer usage even after accounting for outside temperature.

People are changing their habits in anticipation of increased gas bills (and also nobody likes being blackmailed by Russia).

In April May it will become clear how much was used and what it did cost extra (since most renters get their yearly balance around that time)

>Yes the heating period ist just now starting as it gets colder

We broke records around the UK yesterday for the warmest November day so still not really starting here.

Were also breaking records for wind generation.

Besides, looking at that graph it looks that the "plunge" is on the order of normal price change noise. Just look at the history from before the "plunge". Clickbait.

Clickbait is literally the business model at Bloomberg: https://www.businessinsider.com/bloomberg-reporters-compensa...

>it is just here the same is happening unintentionally by LNG terminal malfunction.

with all that is going on in the world, it would be really easy to give into the conspiracy aspect and say intentional malfunction. we've already seen what has been agreed upon as sabotage to underwater pipelines. why not a terminal like this as well?

Edit: I'm in no way pushing this as a thing. Just speculating from past experience in the inner sanctum of groups that would absolutely push an idea like this. Just because we as a forum might not think anything like this would be possible, you absolutely know there are those that will

You've had past experience involving large conspiracies?

oh boy, where to begin? very long story short, yes. yes I have.

I think US needs its partners more than ever and doing things like this on purpose is bound at some point to backfire on them spectacularly. I think rational US government would not do something like this on purpose because there just isn't a whole lot to gain but boy, there is a lot to loose.

ahh, you seem to think that a gov't is the only thing that could do something like this. what if the gas company itself did this? a true conspiracy aficionado would follow the money and ask who benefits the most. hell, a good conspiracy would suggest all of LNG producers got together and chose the specific plant to sabotage so they all benefit.

conspiracies are just so much fun! /s

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