GDP grew +2% in Q3, after declining in Q1 and Q2. Gross Domestic Income (similar to GDP but measured differently) grew consistently the entire year. And unemployment rate has declined consistently every single month and stands at 3.57%. I think it would be hard to thread a needle to call any part of YTD 2022 as a recession with this kind of fact pattern. Only if unemployment rate starts to increase in a dramatic way can we really go back and say we were in a recession this year.

It will take a quarter, but given the massive layoffs occurring now, the projections of early next year are looking spot on.

Inflation is a different problem.