Your response is the first that's really interesting. I know that the fair value is much, much higher than it is now, because there is virtually no real adoption.

> what’s the right coin and right amount to hold?

That's an amazing question. I have truly no idea. I'm investing based on my personal conviction.

But this opens up a really interesting discussion about game theory and prediction markets. In a zero-sum prediction market, refusing to play is pareto-optimal and an equilibrium strategy.

So you could call me an irrational actor. I'm making a first move based on personal belief, thereby giving you an opportunity to arbitrage me. I believe that the fair value is higher than it is now. If you believe differently, short me. (I'm just joking of course, but I do find your question intriguing, and is something I've been thinking about a lot)