https://decrypt.co/113674/binance-moves-to-liquidate-its-ent...
https://decrypt.co/113788/binance-ceo-declines-alamedas-bid-...
https://decrypt.co/113866/battle-crypto-titans-ends-binance-...
https://decrypt.co/113674/binance-moves-to-liquidate-its-ent...
https://decrypt.co/113788/binance-ceo-declines-alamedas-bid-...
https://decrypt.co/113866/battle-crypto-titans-ends-binance-...
That's not necessarily a bad thing, btw.
> The shadow banking system is a term for the collection of non-bank financial intermediaries (NBFIs) that provide services similar to traditional commercial banks but outside normal banking regulations.[1] Examples of NBFIs include insurance firms, pawn shops, cashier's check issuers, check cashing locations, payday lending, currency exchanges, and microloan organizations.[2][3] The phrase "shadow banking" is regarded by some as pejorative, and the term "market-based finance" has been proposed as an alternative.[4]
The only way this happens is if the prop trading business is over-leveraged somehow and the exchange bailed it out with FTT.
Customer deposits should meet liabilities 1:1. If they don't, somebody is lying.
That’s not how banking works. You hold illiquid assets. Sometimes they move in price. If they move enough in price you’re insolvent. Limiting bank runs is a genuinely hard problem.
This should be illegal, and people who do this should go to jail.
Customer funds should be 1 to 1 backed with assets.
Case A, tell your customers that their funds have asset backing, and have asset backing: fine.
Case B: tell your customers that their funds have no asset backing, and have no asset backing: fine. (Those customers deserve what they get.)
Case C: tell your customers nothing, and do whatever you feel like: fine. (Those customers deserve what they get.)
Case D: tell your customers that their funds have asset back, and have no asset backing: bad.
SBF claimed that assets WERE backed, while it appears that they were not.
That is exactly what is happening. There is lots of lies being told, with no transparency, and then people's money disappears.
Instead of that, if people money disappears, we should arrest the people who made it disappear.
Though to be honest, it is well known that the long term fate of any crypto exchange is to go bust. So no one could really claim that they didn't know it was coming.
Crypto is glorified gambling. (At least so far. In principle, crypto can mature over time into something more serious.)
I don't think anyone has an inherent right to take advantage of people's ignorance solely for their own profit even if those people "deserve what they get." We make plenty of other ways of abusing people illegal, why allow that one?
My formulation of 'deserve what they get' was perhaps a bit snarky.
There are good reasons for people to invest in risky ventures. Eg when you invest in a startup, you might be able to get your money back, if you ask nicely, but there's no guarantee, and there's not necessarily any liquid assets backing your funds.
I think investing in risky assets should be legal.
I also think that it should be legal for people to invest in assets that have no official classification into whether they are risky or not. Ie when the company taking your funds makes no claims (as in C), in practice the customers should assume the worst.
If you want to forbid C, alas, that leads to a lot of bureaucracy. Because you have to define what an adequate level of disclosure looks like. And then there will be lots of paperwork.
Educated rumor is suggesting FTX may be insolvent, not only the victim of a bank run type scenario.
An exchange on the other hand is facilitating trades by matching buyers with sellers. At least that's how it works in stock markets. Even if NASDAQ were to become a market maker they would have to spin a separate entity, bring their own funds to provide liquidity. Even then I don't know if it's allowed by regulation.
It isn’t, precisely for this reason. The US Equity and Equity Derivative markets have tried a few times to get approval for initiatives using their already existing BDs (to facilitate inter-market order routing), and in every case it’s been blocked by the regulators as too risky to the underlying business.
The issue here has more to do with the lack of a centralized C&S clearing house in crypto, and is one of the reasons counterparty risk remains such a massive issue there. Having to maintain an account at each exchange, much like you would a BD, and praying things don’t suddenly go pear shaped, strikes me as insane (and is one of the primary reasons I’ve avoided getting involved in the crypto space)
Futures: ... with margins of up to 101x.
Leveraged Tokens: ... up to three times the leverage. ... the leveraged coins offered by FTX don’t require any margin.
Options: (standardish).
MOVE: ... wager on the price movement ... a play on volatility.
Spot Markets: ... more than 100 different spot trading pairs.
How many exchanges will need to go under for the market to decide that isn't a great way to operate one? How much educating of users/customers will it take?
Customers' assets (either crypto or fiat/USD) should be backed 1:1. The only reason for FTX to pause withdrawals and then assure investors that their money is safe is a sign that they are using customers' assets/funds to participate in the market.
How long before SEC/regulators wake up and regulate these shadow-banks disguised as exchanges as other exchanges?
There is a strong, vested interest in portraying FTX's collapse as a one off. Binance doing them dirty doesn't cast a pall across the industry. Fundamental problems, likely replicated systemically, does.
Yes, although the limitation with this line of thinking is that in most market-related activities (including running an exchange) it's hard not to be structurally long the market in various important ways. For example as an exchange your commissions are going to be highly correlated with market activity and may also be per unit in some cases and so would be directly correlated with market prices in that case.
As a second-order effect, customers' trading limits are going to be affected as prices fluctuate even if you don't directly offer margin yourself, because not only does the value of the thing they've deposited with you change and therefore affect how much other stuff they can sell this for but also they may have made that deposit by pledging collateral elsewhere and borrowing against that to create margin so that margin loan will be affected.
You can definitely try harder to avoid the problem than FTX though which seems to have been pretty much all-in on it's own illiquid token (FTT) and Alameda using leverage on FTT as their main source of funding. One of the things I learned at Goldman during the crisis is that you can't rely on a mark for anything illiquid - you have to have a real liquid market price.
Very long in this case, as SBF was the biggest donor to the Biden campaign.
Last few weeks he was even trying to involve himself in writing the regulations he wanted, trying to kill DeFi and make it comfy for himself against other CEXes, no doubt.
Some people say that's what triggered CZ to act.
And now the whole of FTX and $8 buys you a mosquito net, what a world.
Those are for company controlled pacs as well, so not just SBF.
For individuals the best info I could find doesn’t list SBF as a major donor.
https://www.opensecrets.org/2020-presidential-race/joe-biden...
https://ftx.com/markets/futures
https://help.ftx.com/hc/en-us/articles/360024780511-Futures-...
This makes absolutely no sense and is not how markets work. If FTX was actually willing to buy unlimited FTT at a given price, Binance could not have "crashed the price" by selling below that price — somebody would simply have bought at the Binance price and sold to FTT at their price.
What seems more likely is that FTX extended that offer only to a small portion of the tokens that Binance wanted to sell (to maintain the fiction of their price).
Similar to how stocks can be traded in Dark Pools outside of the regular stock market.
Sounds like a euphemism to me.
Of the $14.6 billion assets Alameda manages, almost $6 billion is FTT based. Alameda has heavy investment in Solana, Serum, and other alt-coins. It looks like the drop in their value has lowered Alameda's asset balance. Alameda borrowed FTT tokens from FTX to put them as assets in the balance sheet to shore it up. The size of the asset balance is probably used to obtain loans and liquidity.
FTX issues FTT tokens (print money) => lends to Alameda to put under the asset balance => Alameda borrows money from outside against its assets or uses the asset/coins to invest in others => win with thin air!
The crashing of the FTT token not only tanked FTX, it's going to tank Alameda Research as well since its asset balance suddenly shrunk and might have liquidity problem.
The tanking of Alameda is going to another Three Arrow Capital event since Alameda invests in lots of other cryptos. It might be forced to liquidated those investments. Expect another bloodbath in the crypto space.
1) Lenders don’t care about the liability side?
2) How does “liquidity” differ from “loans” here? That is, when would they do this to achieve one but not the other?
It's reported that Alameda Research has $14.6 billion in assets and $8 billion in liabilities. Some claim that Alameda's assets are "entirely illiquid." Nobody knows how bad things are. The only thing is that FTX has stopped the withdraws.
2. Loans for long term and liquidity for short term? Like overnight lending.
Edit: add more info.
Edit: That is, you said the "size of the asset balance" is used to obtain loans. That makes it sound like merely increasing assets -- even if they come with liabilities, makes them more capable of getting loans.
I don't know what the OP was referring to, and I don't know if this is what they were doing, but something like this could happen.
It would be like getting a personal loan from a bank, buying jewelry with it, and then using the jewelry to get a pawn loan — a dubious strategy, since the terms on the first loan are going to be much better.
The Federal Reserve issues US dollars (print money) => US Treasury borrows money from The Federal Reserve, Japan, China and the UK against its assets or uses the asset/coins to invest in others => win with thin air!
Win with the largest military in the world and all tangible assets and influence the US has.
When that info was seemingly accidentally revealed, the spicy little nugget in there that made people sit up & notice was that the entire market cap of FTT tokens was well below the reported asset value of the tokens on the balance sheet.
Edit: I totally forgot to mention the "Ting Hai Effect"! [2] Wikipedia has a great summary which I'll just quote here:
> The Ting Hai effect, also known as the Adam Cheng effect, is a stock market phenomenon in which there is a sudden and unexplained drop in the stock market whenever a film or a television series starring Hong Kong actor Adam Cheng is released. It still remains as a popular topic among stock brokers, years after the television drama The Greed of Man was broadcast in Hong Kong in late 1992. The effect is named after Ting Hai, the primary antagonist in the drama, who was portrayed by Cheng.
Does anyone even know where it operates out of these days?
They got regulatory approval to operate in Dubai and have offices there, so maybe there (https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/09/20/binance-secures-l...)
It's almost like it doesn't matter.
For accountability, it barely matters. For financial products they offer, it also barely matters. Most jurisdictions are too small to say anything and all their customers can circumvent any geo-restriction. They have distinct subsidiaries in major markets like USA.
https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/11/02/divisions-in-sa...
CZ sounds smart to withdraw quickly not to be the one in a sinking boat and it did sink quickly.
+ the bank (FTX) was likely massively over leveraged
+ the bank's primary assets were likely not very liquid
Both of above are speculation. However, why else be forced to sell (1) to Binance?
(1) Matt Levine makes his usual solid argument as to why the price was likely zero, other than cashing out FTX debt: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/authors/ARbTQlRLRjE/matthe...
It's not really "4D chess" to screw over your competitor to corner the market.
That's like, business 101.
Winning an evenly matched game of prisoner's dilemma with billions at stake is about as close to 4D chess there is.
Then, when FTX predictably tanked, he stepped in and generously offered to buy out FTX.
But if dumping the whole stock was done with the intention, even partial, to crash the price, then it seems to me that it would be manipulation. Of course crypto is unregulated, so it wouldn't be illegal.
Why would Binance decline this opportunity? If FTX, Binance, and the market knew FTT would just crash, it sounds like a given that Binance should take advantage of the fixed price instead of losing hundreds of millions of dollars "letting the market decide".
If FTX could pay the current market price, then they could have absorbed whatever Binance sold on the open market.
They probably offered a deep discount.
It could be that you need time to sell, or it could be that no one is stupid enough to buy it.
The former can be fixed with a temporary loan, the latter in bankruptcy court.
But here we are, and I’m not sure if FTX was offering to buy with some favorable terms regarding the time of settlement in addition to a discount. They could have bought on the open market at the discounted price but they apparently didn’t…
1) Alameda used FTX money and balance sheet along with using $FTT to take out billions of loans and "investments" including possibly customer funds to "invest" "efficiently" into risky investments
2) He then also used a lot of it to prop the entire market up in the 1250-1350 range over months to decouple the market possibly and keep $FTT above the $22 mark which was possibly a margin level for his collateral.
3) Market rallied and everything was fine. He is up a lot but lost few between making potentially risky investments (maybe shorting?), maybe options market making as that was his original expertise... who knows. But he clearly lost some money in there.
4) Rumors spread of balance sheet shortfall. Now mind you .. Alameda is a separate entity than FTX. So using FTX resources for trading on Alameda is a big no no.
5) CZ finds out about this. Decides to market sell his billions of $FTT position. Caroline gives up her hands and says they will buy at $22 which on the chart you can see has been the support line time and time again so clearly that line has been supported constantly..
6) The market selling pushes price below $22. Entire market and large players smell blood.. the moment the price goes below $22 the lenders market sell coins ($FTT and $SOL) for margin. This results in a loop after it breaks below $22 and goes into freefall with no support anymore
7) With no options to get more money from lenders and having no other assets to get more loans from lenders as they are already selling his assets, SBF goes to CZ and asks to bail out FTX as there is a big hole that cannot be filled anymore. CZ probably decided to take over FTX and said to SBF you have to either stop gap some of the fills from selling your assets since you did things wit the balance sheet and customer money you weren't supposed to. He probably said he will bail out FTX but NOT Alameda. Sam then either market sold everything he had...OR the lenders... Sam went to the lenders and said I am defaulting on my loans...So the lenders just market sold all the collateral. I think its most likely Sam said he is going to default on the loans and they market sold.
IF the lenders recouped 70-80% then i think its fine.
IF the lenders WERE NOT able to recoup and will have to take a write off on the loans.. we have issues. That part I am unsure about. IF a large lender goes under... then there is further contagion. The market selling off coins so quickly triggered probably more liquidations.
WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE? We have seen bigger black swan events like in crypto past. All new concepts have days weeks like this. Stocks had it, banks had it and crypto has had it few times. There will always be new smart people to push growth and take over.
When 3AC went bust, we got to $800 on $ETH. We rebounded to 2k in time. That was close to 17-18bn. This is smaller. in time... we will be back. Not sure when.. but eventually it all comes back. Market is cyclical end of the day.