Once my immediate family is out, I expect it'll be a domino effect with my extended family and friends -- those of us on Signal will have fewer and fewer reasons (ie, individuals in our graph) to use it. As much as I'd like this to not be the case, I think it will be. A smallish percentage of my contact list was on Signal, but every few months, another few people would join. I expect this trend will reverse.
my guess is that carriers/telcos offer unlimited SMS because they can data mine and monetize the shit out of it
also most people are still somewhere at the level of "the Internet is Google Chrome"
Will be a lot harder to tell people to switch now.
People have multiple apps for their social networks, and are completely fine with them. Snapchat, Facebook, TikTok, WhatsApp, Telegram. At the end of the day, I think it's just an excuse. They don't want to install Signal because they follow what others do, and it seems like others are not on Signal.
Instead of saying: "Install Signal, it will be your new SMS app", if you said "What? You don't have Signal? That's the new thing man", I'm sure they would try it. Then realize that they don't have contacts there, and uninstall it (because they reaaaaaallly need to save those 6MB badly on their phone, for some reason).
People don't use what's best, people use what other people use. They don't want to think.
Discovering you're not limited to sms was nice, when now you have to have an aside - "hey, have you ever heard of signal?"
1) Spam (~40%)
2) Transactional messages (~40%)
3) Conversations with old (45+) relatives (~15%)
4) Conversations with people I barely know (parents of kids' friends, people responding to a web market listing, that kind of thing) (~5%)
Google Messages (the default SMS app on newer phones) uses RCS if available and overlays E2E encryption on top using the Signal protocol.
Most people will use the messaging platforms that they need to have installed to get through their days. It's nice, ofc, to have friends who are privacy enthusiasts - but Signal main goal has always been to go beyond that group.
but you are right it doesn't have much use for children