FPTP encourages people to metagame who they think is "viable" which is really difficult in unpolled local elections and contrary to people voting who they would actually like to win.
FPTP encourages people to metagame who they think is "viable" which is really difficult in unpolled local elections and contrary to people voting who they would actually like to win.
I still think that ballot exhaustion is a real issue though (maybe an overblown one, but not super overblown). If you vote for the green party candidate, as per your example, but it's an RCV election, and you don't specify your preference for Democrats vs Republicans (because you're only familiar with FPTP, or you feel this would be "disloyal" to the Green candidate) then your vote would be less effective than another Green supporter who did express their full set of preferences.
Maybe it's a price worth paying, that society says "If you don't maximally fill out the ballot, then you are potentially punished by having less political power than some of your fellow citizens", but I think we need to admit that this is a trade-off we're making when we support RCV. (Again, though, it's not a trade-off relative to FPTP, which absolutely gives some voters less power, because votes for third parties are immediately exhausted, I agree).
If it's not a trade off compared to FPTP, are you comparing to a parliamentary system? How would that work for individual or nonpartisan posts, like say a town mayor or chief dogcatcher?
BTW, it's no one or no-one.
Except you don't get no-one, you get one of the two big parties. (Getting no-one would be like "none of the above" winning, which is a supported outcome in some election systems).
The best I can do to steelman your argument is to imagine you meant "the greens or anyone", because then, yes, the winner was "anyone", but that's not what a voter necessarily thought they were doing by being "loyal" to the green candidate.
Instant-runoff voting (used in practice for counting RCV ballots in the US) actually satisfies the "later-no-harm" criterion[0] of voting systems (unlike Approval Voting), so if a voter knows this fact, they may feel comfortable adding the extra signal of additional preferences to their vote, but otherwise they might be reluctant to, making their vote less effective due to lack of education or misplaced loyalty.
You're right that this is a minor problem compared to the extensive flaws in FPTP, but it is a new and avoidable flaw, and it will affect people who might have previously benefited from (the unfairness of) FPTP. I'm not "comparing to a parliamentary system", though, since both presidential and parliamentary systems are compatible with both RCV/IRV and FPTP, and I think everything we've mentioned is equally applicable to individual and non-partisan posts.
This is a flaw for instant runoff voting at a benefit for approval voting.
In a nutshell, later no harm means voting for your second can't hurt your first. But it can also mean that your vote for your second can't hurt your third either. Thus if it's more important to target your third than your first, you want to hoist your second favorite into the first position by burying your true favorite. That can never be strategically good with approval voting.
If you're right, then your second and third preferences can't harm the chances of each other, and it seems like this result must generalize such that your Nth can't hurt your Mth, for all N and M. That would mean that every possible vote has no effect on the outcome of the election, which seems like a contradiction.
Obviously I'm missing something, but I'm happy to put that down to the complexity and unintuitive outcomes of RCV/IRV, since Approval Voting is a much simpler system to reason about (and implement).
I still disagree that Approval's lack of later-no-harm is a feature, though. In practice, what it means is that voters have to think strategically about how well they think the various candidates will do, in order to decide whether they have to "risk" giving an approval to a candidate who they genuinely don't like, but who might be the only chance of preventing a detested candidate from winning.
35% peltola begich
33% palin begich
18% begich peltola
14% begich palin
-- https://electionscience.org/commentary-analysis/rcv-fools-pa...
begich is eliminated first, even though he's preferred to each of his rivals by a sizable majority.
but more notably here, palin is a spoiler. her supporters get peltola—their least favorite. BUT if they insincerely/strategically rank begich in 1st instead of palin, then begich wins. i.e. they get their 2nd choice instead of their 3rd.
so they have to LIE ABOUT THEIR FIRST CHOICE in order to prevent the spoiler effect. whereas this is mathematically proven never to happen with approval voting.
> I still disagree that Approval's lack of later-no-harm is a feature, though. In practice, what it means is that voters have to think strategically about how well they think the various candidates will do, in order to decide whether they have to "risk" giving an approval to a candidate who they genuinely don't like, but who might be the only chance of preventing a detested candidate from winning.
you can't argue about strategic voting because:
1. as i just showed you, IRV/RCV has an even more severe vulnerability to this—you have to strategize about whether to support your FAVORITE, not whether to support your 2nd favorite.
2. approval voting gets better results with strategic voters than IRV does with HONEST voters, so even in the worst case scenario, approval voting is still better. see these VSE calculations by harvard stats PhD jameson quinn.
https://electionscience.github.io/vse-sim/VSEbasic/
my link already discussed all of this quite clearly.
> if they insincerely/strategically rank begich in 1st instead of palin, then begich wins. i.e. they get their 2nd choice instead of their 3rd.
So it sounds like the real complaint here is that IRV fails the "favorite betrayal criterion"[0] which requires that "voters should have no incentive to vote someone else over their favorite".
You're right, that's a genuine flaw of IRV, and one that Approval Voting doesn't suffer from. Unfortunately, the strict definition is slightly unhelpful here, because in Approval Voting the only way to rate a candidate "over" your first preference is to not approve your first preference, which of course will harm them. So it's almost impossible for Approval to fail this criterion just by the lack of options it gives to voters.
Instead we should be considering if voters have an incentive to vote for another candidate over, or as equal to, their first preference. This criterion doesn't have a name, but it's a criterion that Approval doesn't satisfy, for the same reason as your Alaska example. Supporters of Palin have an incentive to approve Begich, i.e. give him equal support on their ballot paper to their actual first preference. You might say that this is fine, because it allows them to get their 2nd preference as the winner instead of their 3rd, but if other people had ended up voting different on the day, then giving this extra support could have denied the Palin supporter the Palin win they were hoping for.
> you can't argue about strategic voting
You're probably right that IRV has more scope for strategy than Approval, and I might even grant that Approval gets better results in practice, regardless of the amount of strategic voters, but I still think that IRV has a better UX and requires less cognitive load (as long as voters don't need to number every candidate, although that makes IRV even less fair).
My point is, as a voter going to fill out your ballot, you know what it means to like one candidate more than another, and you can ignore the candidates you don't know about, and you can probably pick an order randomly if there are two candidates who you like equally well (and randomized ballot ordering helps here, although it potentially hinders illiterate people who need to see the ballot paper long in advance to memorize how to fill it in).
By contrast, being asked which candidates you "approve" of basically can't be answered without having to think strategically, or at least it will mean different things to different people. For some people, "approve" means "I'd still be happy if this person wins", but for others it means "I'd grudgingly accept this person winning as at least they're not the worst candidate on the list". The decision for how to interpret the question will be subject not just to personal psychological biases, but candidate campaigning, and misinformation, and will lead some voters into thinking that they need to pick this "threshold for approval" based on a deep understanding of the polling data (and therefore without that, it might be better not to vote at all).
In conclusion, I don't think this is a reason not to support Approval Voting, especially where the alternative is IRV, but I do think that as electorates get a chance to use it in practice (and campaigns adjust to the new realities it brings), people might start to be annoyed at its flaws. Fortunately those flaws are smaller than those of IRV, and minuscule in comparison to FPTP, but I still think that voting reform advocates can do even better, in terms of UX and simplicity.
I'm failing to see how the person in your example is worse off in any way under RCV than they were in FPTP, and if that's not your implication than what's the point in bringing it up? There's superior voting systems like STAR, but those aren't on the table to be adopted by the country, unlike RCV which already has some support and has been implemented in a few states
This lack of transparency/legibility between the voting process and the results it produces is just the sort of thing that undermines people's confidence in elections, and that makes it an easy target for those who oppose reform, or who just want to undermine faith in an outcome that didn't go their way. We only have to look at the 2011 UK referendum on introducing the "Alternative Vote" system (their name for IRV) where the Prime Minister said in the national press that "It’s a puzzling mess of preferences, probabilities and permutations."[0]
I support any reform that is offered to replace FPTP, but advocates need to be really careful that they don't tie themselves to a proposal that is open to such attacks, and then poisons the well for years to come, preventing other more understandable or more representative reforms from being offered (as happened in the UK).
[0] https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1383675/AV-refere...
Runoff voting seems to completely fall to your criticism, in that the outcome can be non-intuitive and really does depend on the counting process. Heck I understand the algorithm and can still foresee examples where it would feel completely unfair.
The real criticism of Condorcet is the possibility of ties. But really that seems like more of a feature, compared to a greedy algorithm that produces non-intuitive outputs. If there is a Condorcet tie, then that should be considered exceptional and a winner should be chosen some other way. Or heck, maybe the winners should be the whole group of 3+ tied candidates, who'd then need a quorum amongst themselves for every action in office.
That sounds like victim blaming. If more people "neglect" to use their power, or if the people who "neglect" to use their power are those who disproportionately prefer one party over another, then you're changing the outcome of elections based on the new voting system's inability to capture the true intent of voters (rather than improving its accuracy).
> if that's not your implication than what's the point in bringing it up?
I think it is still on-topic for this article/discussion to suggest that other reforms would be even better, but I also think that some people under RCV will be worse off than other people, and they will be different people to those who were worse off under FPTP. Like I say, that might be a price worth paying if there are fewer worse-off people under RCV, but we need to be honest with ourselves about that (and aim for voting systems where the fewest possible people have less voting power than their fellow citizens).
Is there any point where you would concede it was up to the individuals agency? I’m not trying to be combative, but whether or not you think this point exists matters a lot for continuing discourse
To be clear, I don't think that such an individual would "deserve" disenfranchisement as a "punishment" for their actions, since voting is a fundamental right that needs proper due process to remove from someone; it would just be an unfortunate practical consequence of their poor decisions.
Let me reverse the question though: Is there any point where you would concede that the voting system was unacceptably flawed if it caused one or more people to mistakenly fill out a ballot that didn't reflect their true intention (or made them choose not to vote at all)?
I think I see what you are saying. Essentially the "effort ceiling" for FPTP is very low - everybody gets a single choice. But RCV raises the ceiling, so that high-effort voters have more power than low-effort voters (people who still only put a single choice). This gives advantage to people who have the time and resources to research candidates more thoroughly and make more detailed votes