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Comment by beaylott1986 | Hacker News Reader

beaylott1986

What scenario are they training for exactly? Highly unlikely Russian/Belarus army would be able to get anywhere near Polish border let alone cross it. And if nuclear war is their concern how is such training going to help? Their concern is understandable given history but very misplaced. And their nationalist politicians benefit greatly from rallying around the flag (much like Russia hmm).

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As a Pole living in Poland and very much not a fan of the current government, I still greatly appreciate the preparations, regardless of the obvious propaganda value.

Looks like the Finns and the Swedes are thinking along the same lines. Si vis pacem, para bellum.

Finland and Sweden are not yet part of NATO. The risk is far more for them than Poland.

Probably now it is the same given the security assurances provided to Finland/Sweden by US/UK during NATO accession process.

Finland was not a member of NATO and was previously viewed as a neutral country during cold war. Their prioritisation of territorial defence went hand in hand with this and was in context of having fought wars with Russia in modern period. It's not really comparable to Poland's situation which was already in NATO prior to this. A nuclear war is more likely than a territorial invasion of Poland. If they want to prepare for war they should base their planning on likely scenarios. Unless it's just politics.

At least the training will help their emotional state - to feel prepared, ready and confident that they'll have all options at their disposal in the event of an invasion is not without utility. Plus, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the Ukrainian civilians effective resistance shows how even untrained civilians can be an asset, with the implication that they could have been even more effective with some training.

The risk, IMHO, is that you'll get folks doing a day or two of training thinking that makes them experienced combat troops. Overconfidence will certainly hurt you in a real conflict. (The same applies to those who think playing Counter-Strike counts as combat experience).

Unless they are a little kid or machismo simpleton, I don't think anyone who's done a couple days of a "noob basics for tender civilians" training is gonna mistake themselves for an experienced soldier. Especially not when they're exposed to plenty of "real" coverage of a real war, right next door.

I didn't think any sane person would hail a draft-dodger who cheated on his wives and declared bankruptcy 5 times would be hailed as a patriot, a man of God, and a business genius. And yet here we are.

Poland borders Russia and Belarus so I don't really see the point you are trying to make. Si vis pacem, para bellum.

If Russia was going to invade another country he would presumably not choose one that is in NATO.

It's not in the realm of impossible. NATO isn't invincible and history shows that alliances break apart.

I'm not suggesting that NATO will always exist. I am just saying if Putin was going to attack a country he likely wouldn't go after a country that has the most powerful military alliance backing it. There are other countries that don't have that sort of backing. I don't think Putin believed the west would support Ukraine which is why he chose it.

I firmly believe that, had Ukraine collapsed within days of the invasion as Russia expected, they’d be in a NATO country by now. I think Putin expected NATO to turn out to be a paper tiger when it came to the Baltics, at least.

Given the reports that Trump planned to drop out of NATO in his second term, and given the ongoing tensions within Europe, it’s not unreasonable to think Russia could get away with gradual encroachment.

You are scaremongering. I mean Moldova maybe.

There is no way in hell Russia would purposefully trigger art 5.

They may talk the talk for their internal audience but although they may show signs of unexpected incompetence they are not stupid.

An internal coup would be more likely than going full out Leeroy Jenkins WW3.

"There is no way in hell Russia would purposefully trigger art 5" is not what the governments of the Baltic states believe.

Not only governments. I’d say a good portion of our population wouldn’t bet their lives on this.

Why not?

Looking back at the beginning of war, had Ukraine fell in days… I don’t see West actively trying to stop Russia in Baltics and Poland. Russians would have had super high morale while West would have been in 100% panic mode trying to keep business as usual going. Tiny annoyances in the middle be damned.

> Why not?

https://i.imgur.com/rKNtPSt.png

If West would have political will to deploy.

To not act would be to dissolve the whole purpose of the North Atlantic Treaty.

There are no shortage of politicians in NATO countries who feel it should be disbanded. And others who would argue NATO could defend Western Europe even if it abandoned the rest of the continent.

...wait until people get tired and cold and things get expensive and nato will very quickly fall apart. If my country offered training i would take it - I'm about a 16hr drive from the actual front lines. Thats really close...meanwhile soccer players are still on €5k+ a week, us footballers still on their millions. I fear the russians will win this as apathy and 'hardships' continue - the vast majority of people i talk to really don't give a fuck - especially when you go through russias brutal invasions. "But the Americans did just as bad" is a common reply: yes, i agree but now the war is coming this way...and a lot of people don't quite get the implications on their lives. We're all too darn comfortable at the moment.

> ...wait until people get tired and cold and things get expensive and nato will very quickly fall apart

This is not far from truth, and not far from actually happening. Politicians (especially german) prioretizing ukraine over their own countries, possibility of actually UK destroying the nordstreams, people getting cold and unable to afford adequate heating, industries (already) closing down, a lot of protests (already happening) and mainsteam politicians pretty much playing the same record (saying the same thing)...

what do they/we (europeans) expect to happen? If the mainstream left and right are doing the same, the only way to change the current situation is to find an "alternative"... back in the '30s, for germans, it was that austrian painter dude, and we all know how that ended, both for ze germans and for the rest of europe... (and me, living in a nearby slavic country, really don't want history to repeat itself).

> Si vis pacem, para bellum.

We, Romania, had not fought the Russians in centuries until 1941, we did quite all-right. On the other hand the Polish did fight the Russians for centuries before that, they got their statehood obliterated as a result. Romania and Poland have long been historical neighbours of the Tsarist Empire/USSR.

Strong military means people don’t get funny ideas like invading. Weakness means your leaning a new anthem.

Russia had a force for 240 to 260 thousand stationed across the border with Ukraine at the eve of February 24. They are a highly mechanised force, with more artillery firepower than of any NATO military except Turkey, and Greece.

It was only because Ukraine was uniquely prepared to give Russia a symmetric response using a lot of raw firepower, they managed to withstand their first attack wave.

If that force of 250 thousands would have rolled into Europe instead, you would've been fucked. Do you realise that?

They would have lost their air superiority in a day or two. We have at least 200 immediately available meteor, and they have 13 planes on which those wouldn't be fully effective (basically the NEZ would be less than 60km for their Su57. Maybe.) We also have hundreds of MICA NG, and tbh, even our old MICA would be enough for most of Russian aircraft.

And I'm not even talking about US missiles, who are probably better than MICA.

Without air support, I don't see how you invade Poland and cross rivers.

Russia has world's biggest park of SAM systems.

Even if the combined NATO force would've sent all planes it had in Europe, it would not be physically enough to destroy 39000 pieces of armour, and vehicles.

Only land warfare would've been able to stall this iron ball before it overran airbases.

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