> That you introduce more coupling is a tradeoff. That the program (sometimes) gets harder to change is a tradeoff.

You don't introduce more coupling, you document the coupling that already exists. If your program is hard to change with types, it would be hard to change without types - but easier to change incorrectly.

> That is becomes easier to write large, messy programs because programmers feel more safe in the future to refactor, is a tradeoff

Sure, I guess this is true in principle - but you could say the same about IDEs, or version control, or grep. The effect size is small.