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Comment by reissbaker | Hacker News Reader

I think it's inevitable given the geopolitical situation in Taiwan that someone eats TSMC's lunch on America's dollar. China will almost certainly invade in the next decade, and getting large volumes of delicate electronics in and out of ports that are subject to a Chinese navy blockade will be very difficult (not to mention the difficulty in manufacturing them amid explosions). The CHIPS act is a big part of preparing for this.

Intel is set up pretty well to pull it off when this happens. Samsung might be in a good position too.

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TSMC is the likely candidate to eat TSMC'S lunch. The shell of their fab building in Arizona is complete and they are outfitting the inside now. The Chinese will have a considerably more difficult time invading Phoenix than they would Formosa.

What about the TSMC intelligentsia? Will they reside in Arizona or Taiwan? Because if they remain in a China-controlled Taiwan, that Arizona facility won’t be very useful after, say, 5-10 years when next-gen chips are needed. They’ll be stuck in the past.

There are multiple, very large diasporas of people fleeing the PRC. Hong Kong got its initial start from fleeing Shanghai industrialists and bankers (the Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation being a notable one). And many of those people also migrated on news of the handover (like HSBC), and also in the recent events.

I think congress will get their act together for one big change to immigration policy to get the skills to the USA. Some sort of fast track to residency for those involved, maybe with some extra financial incentive (Taiwan looks pretty cozy compared to Arizona).

Arizona is a 7nm fab I thought? They are saving the good stuff for Taiwan…

Good point and IIRC you are correct.

TSMC Arizona is N5 [0], but by the time it opens Taiwan will be on N3.

[0] https://tsmccareers.com/tsmc-arizona/

> I think it's inevitable given the geopolitical situation in Taiwan that someone eats TSMC's lunch on America's dollar. China will almost certainly invade in the next decade, and getting large volumes of delicate electronics in and out of ports that are subject to a Chinese navy blockade will be very difficult (not to mention the difficulty in manufacturing them amid explosions). The CHIPS act is a big part of preparing for this.

Isn't this why TSMC is creating another foundry in the US, so they can circumvent these issues with China somewhat?

No they are building in the US because the US told them they have to. TSMC is the biggest chip Taiwan has to convince the US to defend it from Chinese invasion. The most advanced fabs and the most capacity will definitely remain in Taiwan.

> China will almost certainly invade in the next decade

Unfortunately, a decade is optimistic now. Given rising instability in China, it will probably be less than 5 years. I believe the DOD has updated their estimate

I disagree and I hope I'm right. Taiwan has been preparing for an invasion for decades. China will be observing Russia / Ukraine and although they may suffer less from corruption and military rot, they will be aware of the power of an enemy fighting for survival and freedom against a tyrannical invader.

Also there’s no doubt in my mind they are bitter because China wanted to be the country to get away with an illegal invasion in the eyes of the western world, and Putin already cashed that chip. Now to do so would basically let China and Russia give the world a reason to cut them off together. Yeesh.

I'm not optimistic. China learned that the West won't get troops involved directly, and Taiwan doesn't have a land border with a nearby friendly airport you can use to supply them with weapons (check https://twitter.com/GotfrydKarol/status/1588556253760225281).

I hope that you’re right as well. I think you would be right if the CCP still existed and was ruled by a committee. Unfortunately, China is a dictatorship run by Xi now, and his opposition seems too weak to fight now. The more power is centralized the more it exacerbates mistakes and bad decisions. Sadly, the era of Deng Xiaoping’s pragmatism is over.

There's only two months out of the year, October and April, where the weather across the straight is calm enough to support an actual amphibious invasion. Meaning, we'll probably know ahead of time if they're going to do it.

But, I agree with you.

> China will almost certainly invade in the next decade

What the hell is wrong with all of this warmongering and reddit-quality posts.

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