The people causing problems are generally people you already know, or people with existing relationships. The problem is largely hearsay and doesn't line up with the behavior people exhibit (if stranger danger is so big why use dating apps at all).
The entire notion falls flat the moment you look at the actions of women and men as a whole, and take a moment to remember what ideals 80s and 90s coming-of-age movies showed.
In other words, the 1/X statistic is conditioned on the average person's precautions (like not walking outside in a lightning storm), and by not applying on those precautions, you're using the statistic outside of the distribution that it applies to.
But I think there are also some complications you're missing. These lifestyles matches can be a form of luck. Maybe you're having a busy week. You're probably paying attention to the app less because of course you will. On the other hand if you're being set up by a friend then that friend can be like "hey, they're busy this week but let's set you up next" and there is more empathy involved.
A major problem with dating apps is that they are trying to be that friend that sets you up but they are doing a really terrible job at replicating what that friend is able to actually do.
Whether the statistics would be lower if women trusted strangers less doesn't matter. It's what they choose, despite being educated on the matter since youth, and having plenty of options available in general.