2000 - technology forever 2001 - it's over, go home. 2006 - everything will go up forever! 2008 - RIP good times 2010 - we're going to be ok 2018 - boy were we wrong about 2008 - nothing can go wrong 2020 - oh crap, it's over 2021 - nope, we're fine, go all the things! 2022 - worst recession ever!
I even feel like I'm missing some things in there.
I'm not saying there isn't a downturn, there obviously is, but that's a downturn from the peak, and everyone being scared.
As Buffett says, be greedy when others are fearful, and I'd say everyone is more fearful now than they've ever been.
Looking at stock markets, the 2008 recession, S&P 500 showed the biggest drop from May 2008 - Jan 2009, with recovery from then. 2000 saw a slower descent from July 2000 to Sept 2002, but also slower growth on the back.
This time we've seen a a sharp decline, and I think there is a bit more of a decline, but how much of the decline is already priced in?
From 2000 to 2007 we really lost faith in growth and technology. Did much happen in the technology sector from 2000 to 2006? The iPod, media was going digital, but at the time that was mostly a loss of revenue to labels, not a lot of growth. Social was being figured out, etc etc.
Then came iPhone, mobile, social, SaaS (AWS began in 2006). These things converged for huge growth and really brought the internet and technology to the promise it initially aimed for.
This time, we're at the early stages of AI, clean-tech, bio & neurotech (my field).
My current belief is that yes, we've hit a wall, what do you do when you hit a wall? You don't stop. You go and beat the hell out of that wall. It will come down.
I see a bright future, but maybe I'm delusional.