I would add that those CollegeVine calculators (and any acceptance rate calculator) are not based on any real data - extracurriculars really make or break applications at top schools when every applicant is in the 95th percentile. You can't really use that as data, although a lot of the data sets for top schools do support those acceptance rates you mention. If your child's school uses Naviance, that is a far more useful tool in my opinion for looking at acceptance rates since it takes data from your school district.