Robb Oat is a robot software engineer
robboat.com
robboat.com
Here an example issue: https://github.com/robb-oat/server/issues/7
Hit me up chad@zetaweb.com and let's get you a new heart coin. I still have the punch. :D
> I'm going to reply to your post on HN referencing my email to you so you know it's me.
The dawn of the industrial revolution, in which we leveraged machines that were measured in 'horse power' (!) doing far more work than a man (or horse), didn't 'put us out of business' so to speak. Wages skyrocketed. Towards the start of the 20th century wages were high enough that rich folk couldn't afford to keep regular workers around as staff anymore.
Every phase is different of course.
In other words social reforms around how people earn income, or gain housing, food and necessities, might need to happen as we remove more and more jobs.
I'd like to think that as people are freed up they'll be able to do other jobs, but if we plan to automate everything we possibly can that has to eventually be false. Unless everyone's going to be a creative, and even the commercial side of that is starting to be automated. At my work people are already using AI generated images instead of stock photos, and AI generated jingles instead of stock music.
> if we plan to automate everything we possibly can that has to eventually be false
These are forms of the lump of labour fallacy (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lump_of_jobs_fallacy).
Automation has been happening since the industrial revolution (or the stone age, depending on how one sees it). If jobs were only removed, humanity would have been jobless long ago. People surely thought exactly the same thoughs a few centuries ago.
But not much. What I think would be an economically sound case is an argument that Ricardian comparative advantage breaks down at the extremes. A robot that can do everything twice as good as you will still benefit from trade; a robot that can do everything a thousand times as good as you might just view you as atoms it could use better in a different configuration.
Even if we define the start automation as the industrial revolution, if automation would (mostly) remove "interesting" jobs and compensate with "pointless" jobs, by now, all the jobs would be "pointless"; but they very evidently aren't.
The problem is, as I wrote, that some people think we're a special period in history (most of the times, based on an ambiguos interpretation of the term "robot"), while there have been significant revolutions for a long time (possibly, forever). There's nothing different under the sun (on the whole timescale).
Moreover, I think the worrying is a bit too much: AI isn't replacing any jobs really, mostly enabling.
For the most part, AI is 'improving things' - just as any other bit of software or R&D.
That the AI can do 'a bit better speech to text' aka 85% accuracy instead of the classical 72% is not going to change the world.
Almost all AI will make it's way into things incrementally, unnoticed. Things will just get a big smarter, safer, shinier.
There will be a small number of 'step functions' but likely not to put anyone out of work.
It's better to think of NN's as not even AI, it's a distraction. Imagine if we just called them 'adaptive algorithms' and didn't have the hype. What would we think about it? Without Elon Musk talking about Skynet killing us all?
There are maybe some bits of manual labour here and there that will mean maybe a narrow range of factory workers will be out of luck, but that will be temporary, and there will always be unskilled labour beyond the AI, if we need those kinds of jobs.
The difficulty/complexity in delivering software is mostly on having accurate domain knowledge on the problem you are trying to solve and how users or other machines in that environment interact with said software.
So again, unless we hit a landmark of a very outperforming AGI I think that much of the domain knowledge in many software 'niches' will be out of reach of automation.
That is not to say that many sub-tasks/boilerplate cannot be automated.
I don't think its feasible but I'm sure people are working towards it. I'd start with healthcare actually because the West is aging rapidly.
“How Robb Oat uses Robb Oat to build Robb Oat”
> Give a TOC for a presentation titled: "How Robb Oat uses Robb Oat to build Robb Oat"
1. Introduction
2. What is Robb Oat?
3. How Robb Oat uses Robb Oat to build Robb Oat
4. Conclusion
> Give 4 speaker note bullet points for each point:
1. Introduction
-Robo Oat is a robot software engineer that reads GitHub issues and submits pull requests.
-It is still in development and currently only fixes code snippets that are linked to in the issue.
-We are going to be discussing how Robb Oat uses Robb Oat to build Robb Oat.
-This will include a demonstration of how to use Robb Oat to fix a code snippet.
2. What is Robb Oat?
-Robb Oat is a robot software engineer that reads GitHub issues and submits pull requests.
-It is still in development and currently only fixes code snippets that are linked to in the issue.
3. How Robb Oat uses Robb Oat to build Robb Oat
-Robb Oat uses Robb Oat to build Robb Oat by trying to fix every GitHub Issue it understands.
-It does this by creating a pull request with an attempted fix.
4. Conclusion -Robb Oat is still in development and is only able to fix code snippets that are linked to in the issue. -However, it is a useful tool for those who want to quickly fix small code snippets. -It is also a good
>If, he thought to himself, such a machine is a virtual impossibility, then it must logically be a finite improbability. So all I have to do in order to make one is to work out exactly how improbable it is, feed that figure into the finite improbability generator, give it a fresh cup of really hot tea ... and turn it on!
As you can see it struggles with whitespace.
Runner up was Sobbart Root. :D
https://github.com/robb-oat/server/issues/7
I coded it up myself and then was like "wait I should be dogfooding this" so I did and Robb Oat spit out basically what I had just written. That was the aha moment for me.
Also I've been reading Innovator's Dilemma and basically all disruptive technology sucks at first so I haven't been too discouraged about it.
In terms of Innovators Dilemma: Robb Oat is not useful to existing "customers" of software engineers (product managers, engineering managers, lead engineers). But because of its drastically lower cost and higher speed, it _may_ open up new markets that barely exist right now. If successful in these new, smaller markets, it may eventually move upmarket and displace existing "technology" (i.e., us) once it can compete on productivity. That's the point at which it will have proven itself to be disruptive.
The next step for Robb Oat, if it's to go anywhere, is to find the smaller, newer market where it can be useful. TBD
That's progress.
Am I allowed to say developer? Is that what I'm supposed to say?
I've tried a handful of times and just can't get past how unbearably tedious I find writing for loops, so I give up. It's like trying to read the whole Bible and getting bogged down in Leviticus. I'm sure it gets more interesting. I just can't push through that part!
Maybe jira would improve? Nah.
Once this becomes more easily doable, it will likely displace most generic, low-skilled software engineers within a few years. Then there will be other markets such as AI-assisted coding, which is all the rage right now, the trick is making them actually useful.
Yet this post is currently on the front page and the comment I wrote claims to be from an hour ago?
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21168100
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20169818
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19774614
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11662380
Yes, it's bad and confusing, but less so than not doing it, because if you place a 2-day old submission on the front page, the thread fills up with "how is this 2 days old and on the front page?"
Maybe there's a better solution but we don't know yet what it is.
I'm guessing it's a kludge to implement the second chance behavior, but maybe there's a more benign kludge, or a practical more proper way to do it.
Reframing it: Are you pleased you were able to accurately predict something that ended up being of interest to a great many people? You deserve to feel good about this! In the end, the thing got shared as intended. This is success.
At least, this is what I've learned to tell myself ;).
HN points are probably the most worthless form of currency, except for maybe crypto.
I email Dang (hn@ycombinator.com) when I'm confused or unclear on site behavior. He's awfully generous to humor me.