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Maybe an even simpler explanation is that productively is roughly calculated as GDP / employed workers.

Productivity almost always goes up in a recession, especially one accompanied with massive layoffs (like early COVID).

Productivity is going down right now compared to 2020 because we are pretty much at full employment.

These productivity measurements aren’t really tracking individual productivity at all.

I’m not sure if this is your point, or just that it’s population level, but there is certain to be lag in the measure. I.e. if I contribute $10B to GDP in Q3, and lay off 10% of the workforce, my productivity looks great, but a large portion of that contribution will stem from work done by a larger workforce in Q2, Q1, and before, perhaps well before.

So the measurement during periods of recession or expansion will always be artificially elevated or suppressed.

Are you sure it isn't the design of the GUIs in tools HNers have vague insights into?

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