This is likely true, but only if there's an X. Facebook's growing sign-in box as you scroll down is not easily clicked away from.
Play stupid games, win stupid prizes. That’s why the Facebooks die and the Apples and Googles last.
You see videogames employing these psychological tactics constantly nowadays to completely min-max human behavior into spending money.
And I think that's probably true! But the person without much computer skills comes in with an expectation that stuff is gonna be hard. The egregious signup page isn't a surprise in that sense, it's just one of the many things they have to struggle with to use a computer.
An A/B then doesn't show any benefit for removing the signup page, only downside, because an A/B test only tests what happens if one feature changes. Our intuition can still be right; if we could do all the work to make it so a website is actually easy to use for someone without a lot of skills, like how Apple radically simplified the state of affairs with the iPod, that will positively defy peoples' expectations and make the app more accessible -- even if just simplifying any individual component doesn't do that.
Are ads for logged-in users so more profitable that it's worth it?
Did get a phone-number nag that I was able to ticket myself out of.