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Whoever is on top wins

Thanks, Yogi Berra.

only marginally

Not a lawyer, but my understanding is, whoever gets more votes wins, regardless of the size of the diffference.

Sounds like a reasonable system. Maybe USA should adopt.

I have a suspicion it's going to be a very narrow result, which is contested, with a significant amount of street violence.

It's a run-off between just those two. So whoever with more votes.