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Comment by frozenlettuce | Hacker News Reader

The expected progress is: urban areas should be counted first, with Bolsonaro leading. As the remaining votes arrive they should start turn the percentage on Lula's favor. On most pools both candidates are tied, so the outcome is uncertain.

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Isn’t it curious how urban is right leaning and rural is left. There are obvious reasons but still interesting.

It’s interesting, possibly for the reason you’re picking up on: that’s broadly the opposite in Canada and the U.S.

the UK too

What would those reasons be?

Rural areas are poorer, so they vote for the one who has a record of ending hunger would make sense. Why do urban areas lean to Bolsonaro?

I don't know a lot about Brazil, so someone may correct me, but I'm under the impression that crime in Brazilian cities can be quite bad.

This is a big reason. Another is a feeling, common in better developed regions, that their tax money is being used to sustain regions that "don't pull their weight"

Source: lived in Brazil for 5 years

It’s not that clear-cut, in the richest states in the South the pattern is similar to what you see in the US, urban left, rural right.

Also, this election is not typical. Left or centre-left has won 6 ou of the 7 past presidential elections since the end of military rule. Brazil, like most Latin American countries, is predominantly left-leaning. Bolsonaro has been an anomaly and most likely will not be reelected.

I don't think any is obvious.

But there are different views about urban violence (what is a huge talking point of Bolsonaro), different ways people get their news, urban community breakdown, different religious trends, and a lot more.

It's only curious if all you need to define political ambitions is two directions: left and right. It's 2022, your device supports more than black and white, and so should the thinking.

One can only hope they finally rid themselves of Bolsonaro

Where is the down vote button

Not available for new accounts, thankfully.

Good reply, I appreciate the banter ;)

I doubt it will happen. From what I'm reading and messages from relatives, federal police is blocking access to the voting polls in some poor areas where Lula is popular.

I don't think the PRF has enough people to actually make a difference in that blockade. Having said that, these are truly dark times for our democracy.

Futures markets favor Lula 10:1. Do you have reason to doubt the herd?

Futures markets tend to be quite awful at predicting military dictatorships, and are even quite keen on right wing fascism. Take everything with a grain of sand. Not just tonight, where the results will be announced, and Bolsonaro will protest them if he doesn't win, but even in the upcoming years.

Just for context, based on previous elections you should expect 110-120MM+ total votes once it is complete.

As someone almost completely ignorant about Brazilian politics, this surprised me a bit. In the U.S., it urban voters tend to vote for the more progressive candidates. I'd assumed that was more or less a universal truth. Apparently not!

The split is not really about urban voters. It is between the more developed south and the up and coming north of the country. Lula has enacted policies that help in the development of traditional poorer areas in the north of Brazil. That's why the more developed urban centers in the south don't like him.

Lula just passed Bolsonaro a few minutes ago.

Ah, just like the US - the progressive areas report last, so they have an opportunity to "fix" the vote. This is what a lot of conservatives in the US believe anyway. I don't think the 2020 election was stolen, but I think it's worth assuaging these concerns by changing procedures so that all in-person and mail-in votes received on Election Day report at exactly the same time.

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