The Netherlands may be the first country to hit the limits of growth
ft.com
ft.com
As for schiphol airport lines, I'm not usually a conspiracy theorist but having informed myself a bit on the subject and having been on those queues many times this year, I think it's again a self inflicted problem, as the government wants to have less flights overall, and I believe they found a reasonable escape goat for it with the "staff shortages". One only has to see that they've paid over $100m in compensation for missed flights to airlines yet at the end of August rolled back an extra €5 / per hour that they added to fight the problem. Result? Everyone quit again. Now they rolled out an extra €2.5/hour per security guard. Only if you are blind you don't see there's more at play here than simple "staff shortages". People haven't died, they just don't want your shitty job when they can do remote customer support for some startup for more money and not deal with rude tourists all day.
This is honestly just dumb. Many of the climate actions taken in European countries like stopping nuclear energy are really really dumb.
> As for schiphol airport lines, I'm not usually a conspiracy theorist but having informed myself a bit on the subject and having been on those queues many times this year, I think it's again a self inflicted problem, as the government wants to have less flights overall, and I believe they found a reasonable escape goat for it with the "staff shortages".
But why? Is it also to reduce emissions? They don't want to actually do something meaningful, so they cause havoc in the Airport to reduce emissions? What is going on?
It's not a climate action. It's an environmental action, which there's an overlap with, but which is not the same thing.
FYI when they say nitrogen they don't mean it literally – it's a code-word for nitrogen oxides (NOx) and ammonia (HN3).
The right time to develop a different nuclear platform was 40 years ago, but the second rightest time is today. Where is the bold, government-level messaging and big research grants saying "here's a completely new architecture, it's simply not capable of the same failure modes as Fukushima or Three Mile Island."
I guess that's why people were boosting Thorium a while back, but I haven't heard much news there. Seemed like microreactors was the latest sexy thing.
Most of them catch fire every month or dissolve themselves from the inside after a year. Turns out the idea probably needs materials that don't exist yet (but might soon?).
The Russian BN 800 is the closest if you believe their government, and the chinese LFTR project has some promise.
Even with the basic possibility issues solved there are a bunch of economic, resource and political issues to work through after that.
Secondly, (it's such an absurd myth that keeps being repeated), there are plenty of effective, perfectly functional, usable, right-now-being-used plans for storing nuclear waste. It's not even much overall: The total amount so far produced by humanity to-date is just over 400,000 metric tons (this is very little physical volume on any industrial scale of things) and of that only about 4% is highly radioactive. The rest is low-radiation and one third of that total is suitable for reprocessing..
Bottom line, there is NO major problem with storing it if even minimal intelligent effort is applied to the task.
There's the problem. Even if we only have the 300 year stuff, sooner or later someone is going to put a Jeffrey Immelt in charge of the process and the effort will be neither intelligent sufficient to be called minimal.
Yes, but in an indirect way. At some point, nitrogen deposition was identified as harmful to nature, and emissions targets were put in place. Politicians then did everything they could not to be the one having to introduce unpopular legislation, until they couldn't anymore. Now the government has painted themselves in a corner and cannot give permits for building projects anymore without breaking the law.
I think we'll see this more often in the future when the consequences of ambitious targets will need to be reckoned with.
I don't even need to know the target or the efficacy. The static political situation and power structures versus the actuals of three decades of climate science have not significantly changed. The only improvements have been solar/wind/battery changing the efficiency and emissions game, but REDUCTIONS are still effectively nothing.
All "emissions targets" are "compromises" between political ignorance/denialism and reality. Everywhere. Until the rich realize they are directly affected (not their children, the elite care nothing for their children), real policy won't emerge.
If you can fit your compliance push into something that seems minor and distant for most voters, it's probably less politically toxic than going for the direct problem that might be controversial.
"We need to scrap gas guzzlers" is a direct attack on your voters, but "We might not be able to issue construction permits in 2025" is distant and doesn't necessarily affect anyone you know personally.
It probably comes from the same mindset that says "let's pay for a lot of (programme) with a high surtax on hotel rooms because that pretty much only impacts external tourists who aren't going to vote us out over it."
One thing eludes me, though: the Netherlands' highly productive agricultural exports are mostly due to growing vegetables like tomatoes in greenhouses, where th effluent can be controlled. Nitrogen pollution is typically more the result of large-scale livestock or pig farming. The sector actually impacted by the restrictions might not be the most productive one.
FYI, it's "scapegoat".
Much bigger part is that the government didn't buy out farmer's land when land price was still relatively cheap in order to build houses there (like Belgium did)
What also doesn't help, is that the majority of the voters for the biggest ruling party own homes and have an active interest in seeing their prices surge.
This might come as a surprise to you, but that's the nightmare Europeans don't want. Europeans don't want to live as cramped as people in the big Asian metro areas do, and neither do the people living there which is why they emigrate if they can.
So yeah, while it's technically possible to keep increasing population density several times over, most Europeans don't want that, as it means a decline in living standards and quality of life.
We might as well just live in pods in giant towers like the humans farmed for energy in The Matrix, if that's the end game of human living density, but nobody wants to live like that.
I think the really interesting, and hard, question - which to be fair, the article does hint at - is whether a country can opt for such limits, and still maintain a world-leading standard of living. I've never seen an economics model that convincingly has a path for no-growth. Clearly, we all need one.
That’s a trick question.
You have to take into account that the way we mesure economic prosperity nowadays - mainly via GDP - is deeply flawed. Externalities are discounted everywhere.
The way we chose to measure and control the economy really serves to enforce a power structure which is becoming more precarious by the day. If you look at the facts, the insane productivity gain of the twentieth century should have allowed every human on this planet to live a fairly good life. Materially speaking we could be living in a world free of hunger and extreme poverty and it’s something we can sustain in an ecologically friendly way. Yet inequality is rising nearly everywhere.
What we are witnessing currently is a complete failure of leadership. We have built a complex system which is greatly advantageous to a few and their greed makes them prefer the destruction of everything to risking a chance of a change happening.
And I'm not speaking for a group of people, but the real estate market in Europe speaks for itself and what the people are voting for, including with their wallets, and what the regulations allow for. It's what I noticed since I moved here. I'm not making this up, it's what the market looks like. Don't hate the messenger.
If you pitch China style neighborhoods of concrete jungles full of high-rise buildings in Europe, for the sake of growth, nobody will want that. We already have some such buildings/neighborhoods and are usually low income migrant areas where nobody wants to live. And post-communist Eastern Europe has such areas of commie-blocks but that's a different story.
The most desirable housing here where I live (Austria) is low-height (2-4 stories) low density neighborhoods with green gardens in walkable areas close to the old town where all the amenities are, or single family homes with large green areas in the country side. Those are also the most expensive forms of housing (d'uh!). I've notices this market preference applies to other EU countries that I lived in as well.
Tall, high-rise concrete buildings here are few and are usually built as low-cost housing for low-income people and are usually located further from the old-town where building regulations allow for extra height and where land is cheaper because it's also in less desirable areas with more trafic noise, more pollution, less green spaces and worse schools/amenities/infrastructure. Nobody, except the people who can't afford better, wish to live in those high-rise dense buildings/neighborhoods as it's pretty depressing, and some of those neighborhoods are already showing signs of ghettoization including higher crime rates and low school performance, which doesn't help sell the idea of high dense living as being desirable to anyone.
Maybe there are exceptions in the diverse EU, with cities that have made dense, tall, multistory concrete jungles a desirable living proposition even for the well off to have families in, but I haven't seen that yet.
I'm sure tall and dense building could be made desirable here for many Europeans but it requires a complete shift in mentality, and a well though out urban planning that focuses on quality of life and livability for all social classes to live under the same roof, instead of building them as cheap housing for migrants in the middle of nowhere to turn into future ghettos.
London and Paris are more dense than Singapore and by far the best places to live in Europe. Please stop projecting what you want on the rest of us.
Did you by chance mean "most expensive"?
In any case I've been to London and Zurich and in my personal view the latter is in a wholly different league than the former in terms of general niceness.
The Netherlands has a lot more land suitable for residential housing and a lot less density. If this is hitting "the limit", then they're not doing it right.
Why do you presume that all land suitable for residential housing should be destroyed by residential housing? There are far more types of uses than that.
There is far more to life than having a place to work and to sleep.
Except you are. Your attempt to refute the fact that the Netherlands has not hit any limit is to make baseless claims that "it has more land suitable for residential housing".
https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/compare_cities.jsp?cou...
I guess one person can become depressed because the world doesn't make sense.
Economics makes no sense. End of. That's why it's econ-omics and not econ-ology. Don't get disheartened over the idea that there's some super-smart people out there who ought to know what they're doing. There isn't and they don't. Like Art, it's whatever you want it to be.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/05/opinion/climate-change-sh...
One of the biggest PR tricks of modern times has been how the truly huge polluters such as major state resource companies, huge private/corporate resource companies and the lobbyists/media outlets/ politicians who tacitly support them have managed to flip the burden of guilt for climate change onto ordinary people about their personal life choices. This has happened to the ridiculous point that people such as yourself actually feel guilty about basic life choices due to a thing that's hardly their fault in any meaningful or measurable way. What an absurd way to live a life of unhappiness..
It completely omits the fact that companies extract fossil fuels, factories run and ships ship to supply consumer demand.
The fast fashion industry is a fairly large emitter, all because people want new outfits every week. Same goes for animal agriculture.
So yeah, it is absolutely personal lifestyle choices driving emissions
Currently we have a labor, housing and energy shortage. Cost of living is huge (in my humble opinion), and I don’t see this problem being fixed in the next 10 years.
Secret: housing is cheaper than most American cities.
Secret: graduating CS engineers make $45k.
Secret: the Dutch urban template is well suited to produce/expand new cities. And 50 years ago they made a massive new province just 15 minutes from Amsterdam by raising the land out of the water. There is plenty of room for growth.
Whatever my housing costs are, it's irelevant to compare them to US housing costs since I don't make US wages. I make local wages, and compared to those, housing is expensive.
Housing is cheaper, but so are the salaries. Try figuring out how to pay for housing and a babysitter in Amsterdam on a $45k salary.
Also, most people aren’t CS graduates.
One government fell over this (unfortunately the same government stepped right back in as if nothing had happened) and there was a big inquiry. But trust in the system is still minimal.
But the shell isn't the expensive part. Even for much newer and fancier places, like where I live, most of our iconic cityscapes are either over a century old or from the immediate aftermath of WW2, and in either case made with and for a much lower income economy.
What's really expensive is the land, and for that we bid against each other for the right to be close to the interesting things. The interesting things can be specific cultural centres, or good schools, or economic hubs; but it also includes the physical infrastructure, the roads and electricity and sewage systems.
Cost of living means cost of labor (because for anything else productivity is unlimited), expensive place = well-developed, rich place. Energy shortage in a rich country can be solved through renewables and energy efficiency and only country i can think of which is better suited for that than Netherlands, is Denmark (maybe).
"Labor shortage" is equivalent to "rising wages".
I'd be more worried about completely land-locked countries, or ones who (unlike the Netherlands) don't have experience reclaiming land from the sea.
Building skyscrapers on former swamps is indeed difficult.
However at least my local city council has understood that taller buildings is the way to go.
The only way to stop economic growth is to stop all change at every level in society, including all individuals' preferences and fashions.
Why? The article doesn't go into detail about this. Is it because the climate is getting hotter and people are migrating to colder places? Instead of you know using air conditioning.
Then this just feels a country that doesn't want to grow, not that it hit any actual limits. Isn't this also similar to what's happening in Japan?
https://www.politico.eu/article/when-will-the-netherlands-di...
Every airport is struggling for the most part because they lost all staff over the past few years and have to hire them all back at once. Besides I was at Schiphol recently and it was fantastic -- no queues. I didn't notice any issue with restaurants in Amsterdam. Housing costs in AMS are also relatively acceptable in my opinion.
Have a few statistics and a lot of anecdata been stretched to their breaking point in this article? Is there even a problem?
*In the West.
Come to Dubai, Doha, Riyadh or any of the eastern airports and you won't find any problems. Probably your are going to find even better service.
[0] https://digitalcommons.usf.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1...
And of course that's without talking about countries America destroyed and stole their Natural resources like Iraq.
In this case, I abhor the US stance on prison labor enough that I feel compelled to agree with you. It does not excuse any of the slavery in the Middle East, but the US does have its own issues. As a clarification, the lowest wage I could find was $0.13/hr, so not a month for a dollar, but not functionally different ($1/day or so).
As for the Middle East wars... yeah. Not a fan of those.
A grand total of 6 lines for all departing flights?
In 2021 30% of total agricultural export is re-export. [1]
Also interesting: “Re-exports to the UK down by 35 percent due to Brexit”
[1] https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/news/2022/03/agricultural-exports-e...
47.9% of the global cut flower market in 2019 [0]. They do grow 90% of Europe's orchids [1]
[0] https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/netherla...
[1] https://londonflowerschool.com/journal/inside-the-dutch-flow...
As for more people being able to live in cities, those who live outside them do so out of choice. You couldn't pay me enough to live in a place like the Hague or Amsterdam. They're fine places, just not for everyone. And there's the real issue: The Netherlands is full, not because it's not possible for it to grow further, but because it's not possible without reducing the quality of life.
This idea of growth being beyond reproach is thankfully not present in the Netherlands.