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Comment by asdev | Hacker News Reader

people in the comments don't seem to realize if prices drop, you can buy and refinance later when rates come down. so it's really a great time to keep an eye on the market

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You do need to qualify for a mortgage in the first place though

When do you expect rates to come down?

Prices aren't dropping that much - inflation. If you're expecting a 40% price drop anytime soon, well, don't hold your breath.

Rates will eventually settle at ~5%+ after its confirmed inflation is brought down, and then remain there. 40% may not happen but we will be back to 2019 pricing in most markets in 2023, and then back to tracking 2-6% inflationary gains. That correction is guaranteed. I'm watching my market closely and it's collapsing. 40% gains is an aggregate, not every market in the US hit that, and not all will drop that much. It could happen on the coasts, we'll see soon enough.

After the next financial crisis

We bought at 5.75. we have no delusions about rates coming down for a very long time. These rate hikes aren't an anomaly, the prior low interest rates were.

That is true, but only under the assumption that you can qualify for a refinance when the rates come down. Last time that rates went down that much we also had a spike in unemployment and much tighter lending standards - the two seem to go hand in hand.

In fact rates going down without a [corresponding] spike in unemployment is a pandemic anomaly - which allowed so many people to refinance on favorable terms.

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