- We are already seeing many 90s-early 2010s vehicles where we cannot repair or support certain parts. One big issue is the difficulty of board-level repair on discontinued electronic parts. Most auto shops can't/won't tackle that, their comfort level is just replacing whole electronic modules. Even if you can/will do these kinds of repairs, there is zero documentation and individual components may no be longer made or have obfuscated part numbers. There are some independent specialists doing good work in this field but it's still really hit-or-miss. If manufacturers were compelled to release detailed schematics and parts lists once parts are discontinued, it would help.
- Also, I see many shops struggle to run older specialized diagnostic software/hardware. For example, certain subsystems that can only be programmed with proprietary interfaces that won't run on anything newer than windows 98. Or technical documentation software that needs a hardware key attached to a parallel port. I've worked around some of this kind of stuff using VMs or preserving older hardware, but it's really tough for the average shop and not something that's easy for an independent entrepreneur to turn into a product or service. Again, mandatory open-sourcing once things are discontinued or no longer serviced by dealers would be a major help here.
- Regarding the two points above, I've heard counterarguments about the average new car being much more reliable than older cars. Mechanically, this may be true, but in my experience lots of car electronic systems fail due to age, not mileage. So my prediction is that even though new cars may travel 200k miles without major mechanical malfunctions, as they age a whole cohort of these cars will be plagued with issues due to stuff like capacitors leaking, solder joints cracking, water/dust intrusion, adhesives and coatings failing etc. This will be tough on lower income buyers who previously could buy something like a used 90s Camry which provides reliable cheap transportation even today.
- The article uses the common euphemism of "labor shortage" to mask what is a crisis of labor conditions and pay. The automotive repair industry in the US is undergoing a severe brain drain due to a combination of exploitative labor practices and bad pay. I'm talking about total lifetime earning potential, not just "low starting wages" mentioned in the article. The trade association representative quoted at the end is doing a lot of wishful thinking about attracting young techie folks to the industry, because the industry currently is a very raw deal for any smart young person compared to other options. I imagine we will soon see articles like these invoke "passion" and "inspiring young car enthusiasts" as the industry tries emotional appeals to gain new hires.
- Ultimately, NONE of these concerns about supporting older designs or attracting talent matter to the major manufacturers. Even high end cars now are only built to last the warranty period. The ideal new car customer leases the newest model each year and never buys. Under this model, dealer techs will only need to do routine maintenance and occasional parts swapping. No diagnostic skill required. The manufacturer considers the cars essentially disposable and "someone else's problem" once they can no longer make money off leases or financing. The incentives are completely against high quality, durable, repairable cars, and this won't change without some kind of stronger right-to-repair regulation.