FWIW, those numbers are off because of escrow and taxes. 1.22MM house means AT LEAST 30k in property taxes a year, which mean's they'll end up at >~7.5k a payment, which means they'll need to buy a smaller house.
It also isn’t uncommon to see a big difference between the sale price and assessed value. One datapoint would be a $4M purchase that is only taxed at $2.2M the first year after the deal closed. At least in King County, the valuations do seem to “catch up more quickly” after a sale, so at +1y it might be $2.8M, at +2y it might be $3.3M, but to be paying >$30k here in taxes you’d need a >$3M assessed value home.
[1]: https://www.tax-rates.org/washington/king_county_property_ta...
In Seattle, where the housing market is considered expensive, a 1.2m house only pays $7k in property taxes
Only if it has (a) an exemption or (b) an assessment well below market value. A typical house with a $1.2 million assessment will have paid over $10k in property taxes in 2022.
[1]: https://apps.leg.wa.gov/WAC/default.aspx?cite=458-07-030
It’s hard to compare this stuff apples to apples, but the one constant regardless of locality is that higher rates significantly reduce buying power for people relying on mortgages.
https://www.state.nj.us/treasury/taxation/pdf/lpt/gtr/2021ta...