I still want to know where the USS Jimmy Carter was right before this happened. Undersea espionage and sabotage is one of the specified missions for that boat.
There was no gas flowing through the pipeline anyway.
Ukraine is already winning the war.
European states are already looking to buy gas from anywhere but Russia
And finally, there is a huge risk involved for the US. If any evidence ever surfaces, the US may lose the trust of most of its allies. I don't see why taking this risk would be justified.
Yes, because Russia is temporarily sanctioned. The moment the sanctions are lifted, Russia will still have the cheapest prices due to proximity and infrastructure. And Europe, of course, would resume buying from Russia, although they will try to secure better backup solutions in case of a future incident.
Blowing up the pipeline makes sure that gas flow will take a considerable time to resume. This gives leverage to alternative suppliers to negotiate for long-term deals with EU. With long-term deals in place, it will take several years for Russia to regain its dominant position in the European energy market.
> And finally, there is a huge risk involved for the US.
What risk? The Baltic Sea is controlled by NATO. It's fairly easy for the US to find or create a window of opportunity to carry the operation.
The risk is, if the US ever gets caught, then we'd significantly burn our relationships with our European allies. How is sabotaging our geopolitical position in exchange for oil companies making some extra bucks worthwhile?
Exactly: if.
> we'd significantly burn our relationships with our European allies
But let's say that the US is caught red-handed. I doubt the consequences will be anywhere close to dire for them. See what happened when CIA was revealed to be spying on chancellor Merkel (hint: nothing). As this action will not be directly against any EU nation, significant reactions are very unlikely.
At least a few EU countries would probably align with the US, vetoing/dampening any centralized reaction from the EU. I am aware of at least one EU leader that wouldn't mind undermining EU in exchange for an invitation to the USA and a photo-op with the POTUS.
Some countries will be secretly mad, yes. But they won't have the option to stay mad for long. At the end of the day, US would even find their geopolitical position reinforced because of the fragmentation inside the EU.
What would be that moment, though? When they pause killing? When they decide to start peace talks? Frankly, I find it hard to imagine everyone* gets back to business as usual after everything that happened. Maybe if Russians themselves killed Putin and at least apologized it would be a good starting point to consider talking about potential lifting of sanctions.
* except Hungary
That's pure bollocks because the pipelines through Poland/Belarus and Austria/Hungary/Ukraine still exist and work. They were able to handle the entire European gas supply before Germany decided to build NordStream to reduce the leverage of these transit countries.
I wouldn’t say its an unrealistic POV though, Ukraine and Poland would likely block gas if the alternative was letting Russia win the war.
Instead, they put two holes in one of them, and a hole in each of the two Nord Stream 1 pipes.
Lest anyone forget, Nord Stream 1 is the pipeline which Russia had been throttling and shutting off and on for months, before finally stating that it wouldn't be reopened until sanctions are lifted - which is obviously not going to happen anytime soon - while Nord Stream 2 is the brand new pipeline which Germany declined to authorize for use following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
As pointed out by Putin, that leaves Nord Stream 2 ready to start sending sweet, sweet Russian gas to Germany as soon as they say so.
Incidentally, the attacks were carried out just in time for the inauguration of the Baltic Pipe from Norway to Poland and close to its southward bend off Bornholm, in the Danish EEZ, AND half a kilometer from the SwePol cable between Sweden and Poland, in the Swedish EEZ.
I guess besides aiding Putin's stick-and-carrot gas policy in Germany, the US also wanted to send a really strong message to Ukraine-supporting Poland and NATO-hopeful Sweden.
edit: nice stealth edit. the original comment was just "what would the motive be?" which imo is a perfectly fine question to ask. the "conspiratorial" line has me wondering though: what would a non conspiratorial theory be?
Ask the British and French what sort of ally the US was during the Suez Crisis.
Since people don't seem to get it: Europe will now be an energy subsidiary of the US. When the next US president says that they need to contribute 4% of GDP to Nato it will come with the promise of an unpleasant winter if they don't.
The Suez Crisis is when the British, French, and Israeli governments conspired behind the back of the US to invade Egypt and install a puppet regime. With the goal of taking back the canal and stealing their oil supply.
Pretty much the same thing Putin just attempted in Ukraine.
It's to Eisenhower's credit that he didn't back their immoral attack. And one of the big wins for the morality of US foreign policy in the 20th century.
Oh wait, you're seriously using a moral argument about the cold war. Let me laugh harder.
That may be true of some people in his administration but I don't think that was Eisenhower's view.
And control of the Suez Canal...
FYI "provoked" is the exact word used by many to rationalize Putin's invasion of Ukraine. One could just as easily say Nasser was provoked to his actions by decades of foreign domination and exploitation.
This stuff is complex but at the end of day those three countries were clearly wrong to invade a sovereign country.
Also to shift European dependence away from Russian gas and on to American LNG.
America would like Europe to build more LNG terminals to accomodate its growing gas surplus but first investors will want to feel confident that that tap wont be switched on again soon coz LNG wont ever be able to compete with a pipeline.
That might stretch to 4 if you ration.
that stupid smirk on his face really makes it look like he's eager to blow it up