Comment by aa-jv | Hacker News Reader

Comment by aa-jv | Hacker News Reader

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>clueless tankie.

Keep your hate-filled agit-prop to yourself and try to stay rational. I'm not rooting for Russia - I'm trying to indicate you are in danger of mis-underestimating your enemy - a fatal mistake to make!

I'm not mentioning "terrorist attacks on Russian state" because I agree that thats what they are - I am 100% anti-war, no matter who is fighting it - but that is what Russia's democratic process requires in order to authorize an escalation of its "special military operation" to a broader war-fighting stance. In precisely the same way that the USA needed terrorist attacks to justify its own special military operations around the world, Russia has the very same condition in its own democratic processes - and whether you like it or not, Russia is just as democratic as the USA - they just don't vote for people you like.

Whether you agree or not, Russia has not applied the full forces of its military to this "special operation" - this will happen in the next few weeks, now that the political conditions within Russia are in place to authorize the use of such force. You don't really think Putin can just dictate that a war happen - just like the USA, Putins' power is limited by democratic processes.

Know Your Enemy! Putins' hands have been tied thus far - once the gloves come off, you might change your mind about Russia's weaknesses ...

You say they haven't applied the full force of its military, but considering how spent the Russian forces are, it's not at all clear that Russia really has significantly more forces that can be used. Other than nukes, of course.

> Putins' power is limited by democratic processes.

The processes in Russia aren't very democratic, considering the way Putin controls the media and locks up the opposition. But you're right that his power isn't absolute; no power ever is. If too many Russians rebel against him, his security apparatus won't save him. On top of that, he needs to keep the support of the military, Wagner, the nationalist, and various other groups, and if he loses that support, he's also lost. So he has to be careful and ensure he keeps sufficient domestic justification for what he does.

>how spent the Russian forces are

How spent are the Russian forces? They haven't even applied 15% of their full forces to this operation, Western agitprop notwithstanding.

>The processes in Russia aren't very democratic, considering the way Putin controls the media and locks up the opposition.

At least as democratic as the West.

He has not had the power he needs to field a full war-fighting force - only "special military operations" capabilities. The longer this war goes on, the more justification ("Ma' Terrorists!") he has to pull off the gloves.

3 weeks from now, we will see what that looks like. I'd wager its going to be a much different scenario than the current "special military operation".

(NOTE: I am not pro-Russia - I am 100% anti-war.. ALL war, including our own heinous drone attacks on civilians...)

>How spent are the Russian forces? They haven't even applied 15% of their full forces to this operation

This is in stark contrast to what analysts are saying, which is that Russia already _lost_ about half of its military. Visually confirmed losses of Russian tanks alone are over one thousand units. Russians are so desperate they had to introduce mandatory conscription, despite it being a suicide from political point of view.

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proofs, and you hadn’t provided a single source that would support your view.

>as democratic as West

Lol, no. Russia isn’t even a dysfunctional democracy; it lacks basic prerequisites to become one. You’re probably imagining Russia is kind of like Eastern Europe, only poorer. It’s not - the "cultural distance” between Russia and, say, Poland is much greater then between Poland and, say, UK.

Analysts - on TV - are telling you what to think: because its their job to spread propaganda and make the general public think what is necessary for the Pentagon to get its wishes.

Make the effort to get past the propaganda wall and you will see a much different picture.

Paul Stephan agreed that there is a distinction between democracy and liberalism in Russia: "Russia enjoys robust democratic institutions at least as vigorous as Japan, Korea, Italy, France, and Germany."

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/putin-and-the-russi...

Frankly, you could watch the Russian propaganda and get a less absurdly rosy picture of Russian performance in the war than the one you're painting...

The other side is always propaganda, and our side is always the truth: got it.

No, but if the other side's official state media is admitting that they might have screwed up mass conscription in their desperate haste whilst nationalist bloggers fume about military defeats and the government threatening them for reporting on them, whilst you're arguing things are going smoothly for them and the reason they're losing territory they now claim to be Russia's is because they casually withdrew their 85% of their army for unexplained "democratic" reasons, you have no interest in truth.

Maybe you're only paying attention to the narrative that suits your prejudice.

Fact: it was a "special military operation" - this is not the same as an all-out war/invasion. Putins' hands were tied as to what he could deploy - the West has successfully used its propaganda outlets to parley this as 'Russia military is a fail'. That conclusion is premature - when Russia fields a full war force, the story may be different.

Fact: The army was withdrawn to prevent further civilian casualties in the regions that have already suffered 8 years of catastrophic war, involving the massacre of civilians by armed forces.

As to your appeal to authority figures on TV, I can only assume you are unwilling to make an effort to look further than the idiot box for information, and are therefore not really arguing in good faith. I suggest you peak around the curtains and try not to get distracted by the broken mirrors ..

The idea that they withdrew from lightly populated Kharkiv and northern Kherson regions they occupied to new positions in the cities to "protect civilians" is ... inventive.

As to your severe reading comprehension difficulties, if you're having to pretend that I'm talking about "authority figures on TV" when I'm pointing out that Russian nationalists on Telegram and Russian state media aren't as enthusiastic about Russia's war as you are, it's not because your cliche ridden contrarianism is coming from a place of actual knowledge...

>Russian nationalists on Telegram and Russian state media

"actual knowledge"

Anyone can pretend to be a Russian nationalist on Telegram, and Russian state media is not as "Russian state" as you'd like to think.

Perhaps your call-to-authority proclivity should result in you paying actual attention to what the Russian generals, themselves, are saying - not that you would have access to that in the current censorship regime you seem to be particularly enamoured of ..

Which Russian generals? I mean, Kadryov and Prizoghin whose factions are doing much of the fighting are quite openly accusing the military of cowardice and incompetence (maybe they're Western agents too?). Lapin's too busy making PR videos proving that he is not, in fact, hiding from the war and mourning his son's sad loss due to mutinying conscripts (recruiting people who'd rather suicide massacre their comrades than fight in the war is a sure sign Russia is holding back all their best troops!) Then there's numerous ones who've been dismissed from their posts? Not an awful lot about the mythical million well trained troops with excellent equipment who are somehow more politically difficult to mobilise than middle class middle aged Muscovites who did their national service for the USSR and Belarussian T62s

If you're having to disregard Russian media and all the most popular Russian milbloggers and the guy who started the Donbas conflict as Western propagandists to satisfy your dreams of dead Ukranians, maybe it's not everyone else in the world that's wearing blinkers....

That post is the wrongest thing I've read this week. It's so wrong I don't know where to start.

We shall see in three weeks who is correct.

When the gloves come off, lol.

The pants have already fallen down... might as well take the gloves off too.

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