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If we're going by chaos theory handwaving, i.e. IIRC, CIA funnelled cash via Vatican 40 years after Stalin's death, then still around zero, but on par with the power of a flapping butterfly. Vatican as an institution has instrumental power sure, but let's not confuse them for the actual great powers behind great power competition.

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> let's not confuse them for the actual great powers behind great power competition.

Yes, let’s not. The Papacy is a 2000 year old institution and the current great powers are only a small fraction as mature. I’m betting the Papacy will outlive them all.

Out living doesn't imply power though, it only means that it can survive.

How much real power do empires possess if they all die young? I’d argue the institutions that stick around and shape the centuries largely through influence have the real power.

Long history with great ups and downs, institutions enduring doesn't equate to current relevance / power. Papal state is gone, so is the papal military and navy... back when Papacy had ACTUAL divisions. Modern papacy can't even substantively influence Italian politics anymore. I'm sure the papacy will be around for a long time, but I doubt they'll ever reach peak influence again.

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