Tesla has lost more market cap in 30 days than any other company in history | Hacker News Reader

Tesla has lost more market cap in 30 days than any other company in history

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64 pointsdavidbarker23 comments

I think this has been long time coming. In no way the fundamentals supported the kind of valuation Tesla was given. I don't anymore believe company will fail, but it should be treated just like any other manufacturing company. Tech was always a kind of lie.

I'd argue the "tech" part has been the problem.

What I want (and I'm not alone) is a regular car, that's electric, safe and preferably 4wd. I don't want an iPad with wheels which will be dated in the near future. I was more than happy having a phone or tablet cradle in the car.

However the price of Twitter is up solely based on Musk changing his mind again saying that he now plans to complete the deal.

I don't think he does. Every market swing is known in advance by Musk. He must be aware that his statements have great power in terms of market price. If the previous CEO of Nikola is charged with fraud due to lying to investors, then it only makes sense and perfect completion to charge the CEO of Tesla as well.

it's not "solely" based on that. icahn's rationale merger arbing the stock was he valued it in the 30s anyway so not a bad buy. but... yeah word of whether a deal that pays a substantial premium will go through or not can move the stock, duh. this is true of most other pending mergers elon's just more volatile so there's a lot more risk than in a typical go private.

i do not doubt the SEC is looking at him hella hard rn, he's probably not stupid enough to try to trade like that.

Investors have finally woken up to the likely hood that neither the FSD (full self driving) or the Robot (both based on the same software tech) are likely to produce enough revenue to move the needle any time soon. When you remove this revenue from your financial model you're looking at a commodity business with good prospects for ten years, but then what?

Is it likely at all that Elon will sell shares to fund the Twitter purchase or will it be more of borrowing against shares kind of situation? Not looking like great collateral at the moment.

mostly borrowing. and the financing was set up months ago. that's also why the banks who financed it are getting screwed: they wrote high yield debt at a SOFR + Xpts spread that is way smaller than the HY market is currently demanding so uhh good luck selling that at par lmao

(p.s. before anybody goes off about elon screwing them or whatever this is not the only case, same thing is happening with citrix rn)

He can also raise money from other investors in the private market.

There have been indications that Tesla may announce a stock buy back. Several large investor in Tesla have been making the case for it. S&P just upgraded their credit rating. If Elon did need to sell more that would mitigate any negative effects.

Long term none of this Twitter drama matters. The PE of Tesla is incredibly low right now and the company is super healthy with no real signs of slowing down.

A P/e of 95 is low?

See you in 2117 :)

It supposed to be the the moon.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2020/12/23/tesla-to-th...

Relative to historic P/E yes but more importantly still growing fast and if you look at 3Q earnings annualized it's in the low 40's and forward P/E based on conservative estimates is in the 30's.

Be interesting if we were talking relative numbers.

That's kind of boring because many companies have gone down 100% in 30 days.

Relative numbers at low end are common. Companies in many fields could swing hugely by single press release think of biotech or such.

Absolutely value is however more interesting, specially when we are talking about hundreds of billions. How did that happen in first place and based on what...

If they're not ready to replace gas and drivers, and honesty is more important than shareholder returns I still another 50% downside closer to something like what Meta has priced.

they can't even deliver truck announced 3 years ago and semi announced 5 years ago, this company is a joke, can't believe people buying into the hype, pretty much everything they made is failure besides SpaceX, which ain't really Tesla anyway

even their regular EVs sell no volume at all and are already being destroyed by traditional brands

World-wide BEV Sales H1 2022

Tesla: 564,873 and 19% share (vs 22.7%) BYD: 326,236 and 11% share (vs 5.5%) SAIC (incl. SAIC-GM-Wuling): 321,289 and 10.8% share (vs 14.5%) Volkswagen Group: 216,004 and 7.3% share (vs 10.7%) Hyundai Motor Group: 167,305 and 5.6% share

https://insideevs.com/news/601770/world-top-oem-ev-sales-202....

uhm and now exclude US, China and Norway to see what are people actually buying in most of the world

for instance in Prague you will hardly see any Tesla, it's all mostly VW, Skoda, BMW, rarely other brands

These are European market share numbers for 20+ countries, not some US or China nonsense claimed to be world numbers:

Top plug-in automotive groups (share year-to-date):

Volkswagen Group - 20.0% share (Volkswagen brand at 7.4%, Audi at 5.8%)

Stellantis - 16.3% share (Peugeot brand at 5.6%)

Hyundai Motor Group - 11.6 % share (Kia brand at 6.3%, Hyundai at 5.3%)

BMW Group - 11.1% share (BMW brand at 9.1%)

Mercedes Group - 9.2% share (Mercedes-Benz brand at 8.2%)

Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance - 8.7% share

Tesla - 6.7% share

https://insideevs.com/news/613789/europe-plugin-car-sales-au...

"if you exclude the 2 largest markets things look very different!"

right now europe is basically rest of world for EV. in US and china EVs are starting market penetration at the top down, tesla is a status symbol. europe is relatively poorer so it is no surprise they are on VW/skoda/whatever else.

So...you're suggesting the way to measure world-wide sales is to remove the two largest markets, and then define what is left over as "what everyone is buying"?

American's and Chinese are people too...and potentially Norwegiens, I'm not sure.

I think statistics don't work the way you think they work :)

It's two very isolated markets which are not accurate depiction of world situation.

I was just pointing out that, and it seems many people misunderstand that petro producers are still the value ceiling. Polymers, fuel, and probably lots of other chemical engineering adventures depend on a massive trillion dollar company in southwest Asia and Tesla has been pricing their complete replacement, which... well is unrealistic over the next 12 months.

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