As Europe falls into recession, Russia climbs out
economist.com
economist.com
Or just start contacting, like many SDEs in Poland do, then your effective tax rate (taxes + health insurance + social security) is around 15-17%. The reality in Poland is that full-time employment (as opposed to self-employment) is for suckers.
[1]https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/production.pdf
I'm not cheering for anyone to hurt more than us. It's just a crappy situation all around.
EU put sanctions on itself, effectively forcing rapid de-industralization (so lower exports), loss of currency value (so more costly imports) and high debts which could not be serviced.
Russia on the other hand is debt-free and increased its revenues from natural resources.
MacroVoices #345 Daniel Lacalle: The Situation in Europe is Worse Than You Think - https://www.macrovoices.com/1122-macrovoices-345-daniel-laca...
"The Current Activity Indicator (CAI) is an alternative summary measure of economic growth constructed from major real activity indicators. The CAI includes both “hard” and “soft” economic indicators, and it puts a relatively high weight on the latter."
I could believe they managed to innovate their way out of their problems but it’s an extraordinary claim given the time frame and I’d like to see some evidence for it
The more interesting comment was buried at the end - the IMF have upgraded the GDP growth from -6% to -3%, but that is apparently due to military spending (demand side of the economy). That is still negative. And even the military stimulus ils not something they can do indefinitely. Eventually OPEC+ will lower oil prices and Russia will suffer immensely.
In the long run the supply side is heavily damaged due to sanctions, lack of investment and brain-drain.
There is just something too "sanitized" and "prepared" about mainstream sources that I actively distrust them on any heated topic.
Orgs that claim to be “Unfiltered” or any spin on that usually actually mean “reporting twisted to support our skewed fringe viewpoint.”
The far right has viral memes tailor made for radicalizing slightly paranoid white guys by making them more and more comfortable with the things you're "wading through" right now. If you aren't wary five years from now you'll be a paranoid mess staying up at night reading Culture of Critique and sending pdfs of the Protocols of the Elders of Zion to your buddies. Saw it happen to a "libertarian" friend of my husband. Guy went from relatively normal to belonging on an FBI watch list.
What does he actually say? He starts out by outlining Russian tactics that they have used in the past (WW2) and how it has evolved to the present day (as apparent in Syria). He then points out how Russia has deviated from it during their incursion into Ukraine.
He points out how Russian intelligence failure (to gauge the right mood of Ukrainians) resulted in the Russian army's failure to achieve their goals quickly. He points out how the Ukrainian army has successfully resisted the Russian onslaught. He points out how the Ukrainian could have actually been more successful if the west had supplied them with the right arms and ammunition the Ukrainian army has been demanding all along.
He further points out why Russia has been failing - mainly because of the brave resistance of the Ukranian, deviating from their standard tactics and the shortage of men it has committed. He also criticises Putin of micro-managing the war in the early stages. He highlights how a Russian general successfully achieved the military goals he had been ordered to do so because he deviated from orders and used standard Russian tactics. He also points out that Russia will not win this war if Russians don't commit more men to this war and if the Ukranian get the right weapons.
And look at what has happened since he made this analysis - the west has supplied the Ukranians with more weapons (don't know if it is the "right" weapons though) and Russia has ordered draft to commit even more men to this war.
I don’t buy it. I think it’s a sign of desperation, their propaganda and their supporters are increasingly obvious.
Not saying sanctions don’t have an effect on western economies, but this article bends reality to the absurd. As usual with alt right and Russian state media.
This can cause us to reach at rather silly lengths to explain away these reports using whatever reasoning necessary.
On the other hand, maybe you're right, and maybe The Economist, Goldman Sachs, the IMF, and the numerous other sources referenced in the article have all been compromised by the KGB within the past several months and have been turned into Kremlin propaganda pieces.
But note that the KGB doesn't need to fully compromise some trusted medias. It's often just an "opinion" paper, from one guy. You just have to influence a few journalists. And it might not always be money. It might be embarassing intel, like things ready to be "leaked", it might be promises, conflict of interests... And then there are always people doing it for free, because they have come to believe the Russian State Media alternate reality.
Just move on, you're not helping yourself.
So you’re just plain wrong, but I have to move on apparently.
But a downvote is fine too, I guess.
"Spring is here, if there is no water just go to the spring."
Edit: We've had to ask you this kind of thing several times in the past, including just recently (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32922335). Please don't keep doing it.
Were they merely clueless, or is this article telling the readers sanctions aren't working that great and we should support peace negotiations?
Especially with yields on debt of one of leading proxy warriors - the UK - entering a dangerous zone...
Do you have a source?
The only thing that can make that alignment happen is a common enemy. And only Russia views America as a true enemy. It's not as simple as the media makes it out.
Another way to think about this, if a WW3 breaks out, its not clear that China will defend Russia. And India and China certainly won't defend each other.
India buys oil from Russia because of discount rate, but has also pivoted away from using hi-tech Russian weaponry in favor of US & Israeli arms. Until 2 decades ago, India's defense & industrial backbone was Soviet. Currently, its mostly American/Allied western sourced. US-India have a much higher dollar value of defense & bilateral trade than India-Russia traditionally had in the past. Also they both are members of Quad alliance with Japan & Australia against China.
The world is becoming slowly multipolar. There are no two sides anymore. There is US-Russia, Sino-Russia, Indo-Chinese, Sino-American conflicts of interests. In addition to US, India & China have considerable impact on geopolitics - both economic & military. India has been acknowledging Russian misadventures as dangerous, with Modi giving a clear rebuke recently. However, I think the polity is cautious going too far in chorus. Relationships are built over decades & fickleness of US political theater doesn't really help making such costly international decisions. Let's assume US decides to screw over India with sanctions over Kashmir. Would they like to come to grinding halt because a sitting US president thought it was a great idea? Because that's what happened in Pakistan slowly after 9/11. They were military ally with US, but publicly shunned in following years because Pakistan was not clearing the bars set by Bush & Obama administration, despite a lot of sincere effort from the government machinery. No one wants the same fate as Pakistan.
Think of India as another Saudi Arabia. They are thick buddies with US on many matters, but India wouldn't necessarily toe the line, just like S Arabia won't pump more oil to keep American gas prices stable. What they do is their business
But I do know India just bought the S-400 system from Russia, they developed the BrahMos in close coordination with the Russians, the bought naval fighter aircraft from Russia for their aircraft carrier in 2017, they also bought attack helicopters from Russia the same year. They are leasing a nuclear submarine since 2017 from Russia, and as recently as 2011 they were buying tanks from Russia.
I think the general decline in Indian arms imports from Russia since in the 1980s has nothing to do with the US and more to do with India building their own equipment domestically, such as their new rifles, new main battle tanks, naval ships, artillery systems, and even now their own helicopters.