I feel like non-officially most people think of a recession simply in terms of like are less and less people able to make ends meet and less and less able to afford the same luxuries as they did before.
We are at an all-time high in terms of people employed: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=UysZ
People are consuming more than ever before (even accounting for inflation): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=UOQs
Now, to be my own Devil's Advocate, real wages are falling (though they are at about where they were pre-pandemic: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=SxFv
Compare that to even a mild recession like 1990, where we were 2mn below peak employment, real PCE was falling and real wages were falling.
The above is exactly why shorthand rules are not the best tools.
Please expand on what my bias is. I'm curious.
I said it’s not the official (or frankly good) definition. Which it is not.
Then everyone who doesn’t like that assumes it’s some grand political statement when I’m just some autistic guy, moderately critical of Biden, who has a thing for accuracy.
Maybe you should check your own biases given that.
EDIT: don’t believe me? Here’s an earlier comment that also applies to you.
like I get it, you don’t like Biden, neither do I! But it’s just so weird that people want to pin this fake recession on him, when in reality they should pin other real shit he did like the crypto bubble from stimulus payments or the inflation that followed. My problem with you isn’t your politics. My problem is that you’re hungry for an easy answer to the detriment of accuracy.
The population goes up over time (and in fact is currently at an all-time high as well; the US population has never shrunk year-over-year), so this is a bum metric. The labor force participation rate is still lower than it was pre-pandemic: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=UOVS
Consumer loans are substantially higher than pre-Covid: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=UOVO (I know this isn't per-capita basis, either, but that's all they have ;-))
So, there are some data points that don't look so rosy, as well. I agree with you that the feeling on the street isn't one that of a recession, though there are hints that we are headed that way.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SPPOP65UPTOZSUSA
>Consumer loans are substantially higher than pre-Covid