It's an admittedly squishy heuristic, but my gut feeling about whether a technology will stick or not is usually driven by how people outside the tech world talk about it. Most of my community is outside of the tech world at this point.

For the iPhone and Apple watch, just about every I knew wanted one as soon as it was announced. Google glass? People were joking about how they'd rip one off of someone's face if they caught them filming. Uber/Lyft? Everyone who was pumped to ride at 10 bucks shrugged and found something else at 50.

I'm sure Meta has made huge strides in leveling up immersive VR technology overall. But apart from people with a vested interest, I only hear about the metaverse as the butt a joke. There are lots of cool applications for VR. I'm just not betting on this particular one.