If the recession does get bad, so what? I don't have a family to support. I don't have many financial obligations aside from rent and my car payment. I could survive on a retail or fast-food job if I had to.
I feel as if we've been warned of a looming recession for years now. It'll come in full force eventually, no doubt. But I don't plan on living my life in a perpetual state of fear because of it. I have enough anxiety as is. When it comes, it comes. I'll survive. I'll retain my current skill set. I'll make it out the other end. Not much else matters to me.
What can you do to truly guarantee one’s safety? I just want to work on computers.
Life really could’ve turned out totally different. But I feel that same sense that nothing is ever really guaranteed/secure. So, why not relish the good things while I have them, try my best, and follow my own path?
I have the most necessary stuff that I need daily stocked up for a couple of weeks. That's it.
I have thought a lot about how individuals without a super high net worth could realistically prepare in a sensible way and came to the conclusion, that there doesn't seem to be a good enough answer at this point to justify spending a lot of resources on this.
So I decided to instead enjoy my life as long as it's as good as it is (in a materialistic sense).
Also, another important aspect of how to prepare mentally might be to look at it from a different perspective. What if this is actually a good long-term development disguised as economic hardship and suffering in the short run? I don't particularly like the way tech has turned out in the last couple of decades. Maybe it's an opportunity to rethink a few things...
It looks like many unicorns are dying, and that could cause a shockwave, especially when others rely on them. But I don't think it will ever get as bad as when I first started.
I accidentally made several decisions in latest years that (in retrospective) made me more prepared for worsening of world economy.
- A couple years ago, I decided to quit a full-time "office" job and return to free-lancing. Within a year, I had 4-5 projects running simultaneously (with clients from different countries). It helped tremendously when I had to escape Russia in March 2022. It also feels much more reliable than a single source of income.
- we've been living in various cities for 4-6 months, "trying them out", hunting for the best balance of climate and quality of life. So we prepared ourselves to change location with less effort. Currently living in Tbilisi, Georgia.
- my wife trained me to optimise our spendings ;-) And that is a great thing actually. We only have necessary belongings (because we move a lot), we cook at home often, I use Hi-End in-ear headphones (because they have great sounds but cost less and take less space when moving), etc.
Not to be pedantic, but we're already in a recession, defined by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters. What's coming for the US and EU, given bad debt levels and inflation levels, is much, much worse than that.
To your question: I would say, look for roles at organizations which are likely to ride out the storm. I think you can't be overly cautious (in all financial aspects) for the next years.
Does the NBER make such determinations for all countries? Ha.
Are you being pedantic por are you being gullible?
The term recession has been well-defined in economics for decades.
It's been so thoroughly defined, that there are even multiple conflicting definitions.
Economists, of course, have a lot of pressure sometimes to avoid speaking the truth, lest they exacerbate the situation. I get that.
Again, I'm not concerned that we're "going into a recession." I'm concerned that we're going into a depression, or decades of stagflation, or war.
Mentally & physically, I am taking beatings, right and left, every day, doing martial arts, a lot of running and swimming. I think, when the hard times come around, I'll be conditioned enough by always being tired and sore, that its just going to be a walk in the park. Anxiety wise.... since I moved here, and started doing all these things, its the first period in my life where I feel almost completely anxiety free.
I'm not planning to take 5 years off, I'm gonna take a few months to work on my own projects, then a vacation for a month or two since I haven't been home since before covid. Hopefully one of my own projects will start to earn me some money and I'll work on growing that, but if it doesn't I'll probably start looking for more freelance work at around the 6 month mark.
It's not all roses, there's visa issues, tax compliance is essentially impossible (although I do have a visa that allows me to work) and I do sometimes struggle with the culture here, as much as I love other parts of it (so not much different to home there I guess).
But, on the other hand, as someone who grew up poor, this level of financial security is almost impossible to believe. I can just... Take 6 months off work. Or a year even. And not have to worry about money. I feel free in a way that I never have before. I know this is privilege and I acknowledge that and try to ensure I don't abuse it.
What do you think is going to happen? Mass civil unrest?
What kind of venture is profitable (enough to beat inflation) and economy-going-south resistant?
At the same time, people don't seem to be having much trouble finding new jobs - none of my colleagues who have left (voluntarily or not) seem have had issues in that regard. (Though I don't know everyone who's left, so, I can't speak authoritatively.) For my part, I like my employer and my job pretty well, good pay, good benefits, so I don't plan to make any big changes unless I don't have a choice or something egregious happens.
All that is to say that right now I am not doing anything in particular aside from making sure my income / savings are at the right level and that I have a backstop for any future trouble. I feel the anxiety, but I don't see that there is anything productive I ought to do about it that I am not already doing. I don't think that in an honest assessment I'd have any real trouble finding employment if I lost my job, especially if I had a couple months to look with pay.
Should I feel differently or be acting with more urgency? I'm genuinely not sure. The uncertainty is killer, even if I am in a good position in reality, which is what I suspect.
Financially we do have some emergency cash in the bank, and if we had to we could liquidate some assets (although I'd rather not if at all possible, especially considering how much they've taken a beating in value this year).
I'm not sure what I'll do about my job. I'm relatively well established there, but I haven't really been making myself too visible to the rest of the company outside my immediate team lately (the team only has six people in it at the moment) so that might not be great in case layoffs end up happening, although the project we're on is a pretty strategic one for a large client and letting me improve several skills, and I've also been showing I can manage the company's offshore developers, so I'm hoping that's enough that I don't get caught up in a layoff anytime soon.
I have been tempted to possibly make another job hop before the recession and hopefully get established there before the recession kicks into full gear and I end up being kind of stuck where I'm at for a while, though, but that runs the risk of being included in a layoff much more easily as well.
Honestly if I do get laid off I will probably be relieved and take my time getting my next job, have a mini-sabbatical probably. I've been kind of teetering on the precipice of burnout land for a while now, and have been really wanting more energy to work on some pet projects, get some video games finished and put out in the world, without ever having enough energy leftover in the week to put much of a dent in those projects. I am chipping away at a game library that should help speed up that development if and when that ever happens.
I can't justify taking such a sabbatical otherwise, though, as really my wife needs it even more than I do, as she's struggling to juggle her full time job and working an extra 20-40 hours a week getting a side business going (the austerity is in part to help pad our savings to allow her shift to part-time for her day job at some point next year).
Decrease spending, increase saving. Lower expenses means your savings goes even further. Once you do that, keep it that way even in times of prosperity. You'll probably be able to weather economic downturns. Even if the US economy were to never prosper as it has, knowing how to live on less is huge to a safe financial future.
I really wish I could move to a more secluded area and country with a large amount of open space that one can disappear into if need be. But with children, family, and commitments it's not an easy option.
NOTE: via legit markets, not the catalytic converter black market.
Didn't get a new car - spent a bit on maintenance of a 2008 Civic. New tires do a lot!
Gonna go see My Chemical Romance a few times (once overseas - work that strong dollar!)
Other than that, I'm prepared to postpone some life goals if shit does hit the fan.
Hopefully you'll never have to deal with what's happening in (e g.) Turkey over the last few years, but: if you were Turkish and you had five years worth of cash saved up two years ago, and you've never spent any of it, you now have what, 1 year's worth of cash?
We assume this'll never happen to the dollar/euro/pound, but what if it does? Even to a lesser degree. Are you prepared?
I do the same as the OP and the way I deal with inflation is that I just keep adding more money every month. The objective of this stash is not to make a profit or fight inflation, its just to have a good enough amount of money to survive with 0 salary for at least a year. Regardless of whether or not I have a year worth of money, I just keep adding more.
If inflation does start hitting double digits, I wouldn't know what to do.
Nothing is really serious in the tranquility of peace; only an idiot could be really disturbed by a question of salary.
Its value came as a somewhat rare, status consumption good. But today, gold is much less important as a status consumption good. As India modernizes its banking/financial industry I expect to see gold prices fall with a glut of supply.
So what is its replacement as a store of value that is broadly trusted?
Total world gold is like 10T$ vs total world assets of 450T$ ish.
What would you rather hold? A claim on future returns from a factory making chips or a shiny metal with minimal industrial use that certain primates horde?
The horders can only supply then economy with a shiny metal. The chip factory can supply it with chips that run cars, trains, financial systems, street lights etc.