Like, for example, how it is called the “gold standard” because it’s a 10-year large scale randomized trial, and the doctors running the study are the ones who promoted colonoscopy as a tool to reduce cancer mortality in the first place.
Like, for example, how it is called the “gold standard” because it’s a 10-year large scale randomized trial, and the doctors running the study are the ones who promoted colonoscopy as a tool to reduce cancer mortality in the first place.
The study answers a question pertaining public health policy (should we invite everyone in some age group for a colonoscopy?). It does not answer any individual health/treatment/screening question. The article's headline and content is problematic because it's easy to confuse the two, and the vast majority of readers will never get involved in public health policy (but will certainly have to make lots of individual health decisions).
That is exactly what I thought it was saying at a glance. If I skimmed the headline and moved on, instead of digging in, it might have contributed to an unconscious bias against the procedure.
> In this study, about 12,000 people in Sweden, Poland and Norway got colonoscopies. They saw a 31% reduction in their risk of colon cancer and a 50% reduction in their risk of dying from colon cancer compared with people who were not invited to get a colonoscopy.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/10/health/colonoscopy-study-q-an...
Is that the wrong conclusion to reach from the data?
In the case of colon cancer detected in a colonoscopy they can snip it out right there without a lot of effort, risk or lost function. Surgery on the prostate is likely to cause all sorts of problems for men.
Again, not blaming Jobs for his decisions, cancer is a scary thing. Just pointing out the benefit of eering on the side of aggressiveness when it comes to treatment.
The problem with your doctor's recommendation is that doctors recommend colonoscopy based on age, not whether you have any factors that might indicate colon cancer. I have no cancer of any kind anywhere in my family tree and they are always on me to get one.
From the article, a doctor who still believes in colonoscopy for everyone: “The first message is that screening saves lives [Ed: against this study's data] and prevents cancer. If we could have a chance to start everyone at age 45, I’d like that."
I got colon cancer at age 35 (despite being a vegetarian, BTW), and it was first then that suspicion was raised that there could be a hereditary component - which was later confirmed by a gene test.
The study's measured affect has wide errors bars indicating a larger sample size is needed. Subsequent studies could show the affect is more inline with expectations but are unlikely to show less affect.
The question as to whether this will be used to reinforce hesitancy for this procedure; we can already see it in the comment. Logic and reason are not naturally occurring traits. I predict this will be used to move more people into the control group. Going against medical advice is anecdotally meaningful.
That's not completely true. As a Crohn's Disease sufferer, by doctor has been making me get them since I was a teenager. The indications are high for me. For "normal" people, the general wisdom (apparently based on intuition more than any quantitative analysis) has been that the risks catch up with the general population around 50.
You should get a colonoscopy. If you are at low risk and look totally healthy after, they'll tell you that you don't need another for a good while and you'll get the benefit of not (often) getting something that you don't think you need and, as a bonus, not die of treatable cancer.
There is a money-making industry around colonoscopies and mamograms. I'm not saying to disregard medical advice in this regard as for any individual there may be good reasons to have these procedures. However you can't completely discount the financial incentives for the providers.
This study is meant to inform the public health policy of asymptomatic screening. They tried to see if there was a benefit in offering screenings to random patients, regardless of medical history. The currently recommended screenings for asymptomatic people were adopted because meta-analyses showed they reduced cancer mortality. In the US, the US Preventive Services Task Force keeps up with new studies and revises their recommendations: https://uspreventiveservicestaskforce.org/uspstf/home.
For people with family history or other risk factors, doctors will follow different screening guidelines or just order tests whenever they think it useful.
Wrong. They recommend on both. I had no cancer in my family history but then I got colon cancer (no, I hadn't gotten a colonoscopy before--yes, I was an idiot). As a result, all my siblings' (some of whom are still in their 30s) doctors had them get colonoscopies right away. All negative, thank goodness.
Good luck with sticking your head in the sand.
Dangerous misinformation!! Censor!! I have reported the author, Angus Chen, to his employer.
Or you could just comment...
I can't realistically see anyone saying "No thanks, doc, I'm not going to get that colonoscopy you recommended, because I saw a headline"
This trend of saying a thing is bad because you can imagine some unbelievably stupid person misinterpreting it and misusing it is getting out of hand. At some point people are responsible for their own decisions.
"Study failed to find a reduction" _does not equal_ "There wasn't a reduction".
From the abstract: "The risk of death from colorectal cancer was 0.28% in the invited group and 0.31% in the usual-care group (risk ratio, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.64 to 1.16)"
Look at the confidence interval. This study was both consistent with a 36% reduction in deaths or a 16% increase in deaths. It's just a really wide range. All we can say about this study is that it didn't gather enough data to identify the size of the effect, not that there wasn't an effect.
This is likely because there wasn't that many people who died of colon cancer in any of the groups. This study just didn't track enough people to provide an answer.
"Intention to treat" here means that you count everyone in the group that got an invitation to get a colonoscopy, regardless of whether or not they actually did it. Though this sounds counterintuitive, it's the "gold standard" because, if you don't do this, you leave yourself open to bias -- maybe the people who seek out colonoscopy have some symptom, family history or other reason that leads them to seek out treatment. Maybe the people who get a test get more treatment, and that treatment is harmful in the marginal case. Or just as importantly: maybe the people who don't have the time/inclination to do one would be better served by an alternative test.
Everyone (including GP) is fixating on the magnitude of the primary outcome and squabbling about whether or not colonoscopies help people. But I think the more interesting aspect of this study is that it shows that the genetic tests probably aren't inferior to the invasive, painful, time-consuming rectal exam. If that's true, it's great news!
Is it true, or not?
There is no answer to the question you're asking. You're seeking absolute certainty where none can be had. We only know what we know as far as we know it. Always and everywhere.
Isn’t there just as much chance for bias if the treatment is voluntary? Maybe the people who are more likely to have health issues are less likely to treat them.
I think there is a valid question about how effective a colonoscopy is given that you get one, and a separate valid question about how effective telling people to get colonoscopies is. According to the article, this paper answer the second question strongly via “gold standard”, and the first question less strongly via secondary analysis.
Part of the reason it’s counterintuitive here is the title of the article is “effect of colonoscopy screening”, not “effect of a doctor’s invitation to have a colonoscopy screening”. The title more than suggests that we’re comparing the outcomes of actually having the screening to not having one.
> maybe the people who don’t have the time/inclination to do one would be better served by an alternative test.
I see what you’re saying - the overall effectiveness of our current system may be low because of a low rate of voluntary adoption of the colonoscopy is low, and even a lower accuracy screen could be more effective if more people opt in.
One problem with drawing a conclusion this way is it ignores the possibility for dramatic changes in either opinion or in procedure of colonoscopies. What if we had the tech to do the colonoscopy at home in private? Would that change the voluntary rate of testing dramatically?
I'm not quite sure what you're asking here. If you're wondering if voluntary opt-out of colonoscopy carries risk of bias, then I'll say the following: it's an intervention that is painful, intrusive and time consuming. No reasonable person would get one absent demonstrated benefit.
Pick a thing where people are reasonably likely to do it as default behavior (eating chocolate, say), and the intervention is to abstain from doing the thing, then you'd be right to ask that question. I imagine people who voluntarily abstain from chocolate are pretty different in substantial ways than people who have to be coerced to do so. But people who don't get a colonoscopy when not pestered to do so are just...normal.
> I see what you’re saying - the overall effectiveness of our current system may be low because of a low rate of voluntary adoption of the colonoscopy is low, and even a lower accuracy screen could be more effective if more people opt in.
Not quite. I'm saying that this study did the fairest possible test for effectiveness of colonoscopies, and the effect sizes they found were on par with the genetic tests (to be clear: they didn't actually make this comparison in the RCT; I'm extrapolating from other studies.)
The evidence presented here is not that the genetic tests are a "lower accuracy screen", it's that colonoscopies are likely not better than genetic tests. That's very different.
With a sigmoidoscopy you're awake and the doctor will show you what they're looking at. I guess that's intrusive but it certainly wasn't painful.
With colonoscopy, you're under anesthesia. It was probably intrusive but since I wasn't conscious, I didn't care. There was no pain when I regained consciousness.
I'd rather do a stool sample by mail or dropping it off at the clinic if it has the same results as the colonoscopy. There's always a risk with general anesthesia.
I don't know if my case is the norm and yours is the exception. I tend to think it is. My dad missed spending time with his grandchildren and it's possible he'd still be around if he'd been examined. So get that colonoscopy.
The highest plausible 10-year estimate of colon cancer prevalence from the study was 1.2%. That's 1 in 83, not 1 in 25.
Still a long way from 1:1000
I should also say the following: if you've got a family history of colon cancer, active symptoms, or some other reason to believe that you're at risk, studies of statistical averages don't apply to you.
But if we insist on measuring demonstrated benefit by factoring in participation rates, then it’s a catch-22. What if given a prior distribution of 100% opt-in, colonoscopies are effective? And you ignored my question about what if we made colonoscopies more convenient, less intrusive and time consuming, which is becoming possible with new tech. These things can change the participation rate, which in turn can flip the outcome from little demonstrated benefit to high and conclusive demonstrated benefit.
> this study did the fairest possible test for effectiveness of colonoscopies
“Fair” is a subjective term, and it depends on what question you’re asking. I agree with your statement if the question is how effective is the current system of recommending colonoscopies. It’s not the fairest test of how effective a colonoscopy screen could be if everyone shows up for the screen. Colonoscopies might be not better than genetic tests because participation rates for genetic tests are higher, as opposed to colonoscopy screening being less effective on their own.
I understand your point that the total probability is important. But so is understanding the Bayesian factors, it’s equally enlightening and important to separate and understand the effectiveness of the screen given participation, from the likelihood of participation. And you effectively cemented how important this point is by clarifying that people use knowledge of these outcomes in order to choose whether or not to participate, so framing them incorrectly can and likely does lead to unnecessary loss of life.
That is what the "per-protocol" analysis in this RCT estimates. They considered only those people who had a colonoscopy. This completely breaks randomization and is subject to investigator bias, but at least it gives you an idea of the best you could possibly do if you lived in a world where everyone was forced to get one.
And that is: a drop of 0.15% in colo-rectal death. They then attempt to extrapolate this to estimate the effect on all-cause mortality if you somehow forced everyone to get a colonoscopy, and come up with a number of 10.88% (vs. a baseline of 11.03%). So, even if you forced everyone to get a test, you'd need to test 667 people to save one life.
That's a lot of pain for very little gain.
Where’s that coming from? I didn’t read the paper yet, but the article says: “A secondary analysis also offers another silver lining, Gupta said. When the investigators compared just the 42% of participants in the invited group who actually showed up for a colonoscopy to the control group, they saw about a 30% reduction in colon cancer risk and a 50% reduction in colon cancer death.“
> This completely breaks randomization and is subject to investigator bias
Yes, true. I agree with you. This is important when asking the question “how effective is recommending screenings”. But, voluntary opt-in also breaks randomization, and is subject to patient bias.
> you’d need to test 667 people to save one life. That’s a lot of pain for very little gain
Assuming that’s accurate (the article appears to disagree), I’d still be very hard-pressed to agree with this conclusion. Why is a once or twice a decade doctor’s visit spread out over many people amounting to enough pain to let someone die? How much is a life worth? Is the colonoscopy really so bad that you’re willing to risk a greater than one in a thousand chance of dying? That risk is comparable to many extreme sports.
The problem with this kind of sum up the cost and make it look large is that you didn’t do this for anything else and compare it for reference, which makes this framing prone to cognitive bias. We spend billions and have laws for keeping drivers safe, for example. You could make it look insane by adding up the billions of dollars and people-years people spent bucking and unbuckling seatbelts, but the truth is that it’s a teeny inconvenience per person for a sizeable gain in safety and reduction in the accumulated secondary costs of accidental death.
In a randomized controlled trial you either find a significant difference in your metrics, or you don't. There's no other option. In all cases where you don't find a significant difference, the problem is that the confidence interval is too wide for whatever difference seems to exist. Your argument here is a fallacy (i.e. "you just didn't do a big enough sample!") which is a variant of my personal favorite: "it would have worked if you'd done X, Y or Z!"
There's always another X, Y, or Z. The negative study is always too small for the people who believe in the thing it's testing. As a supporter of some intervention, the onus is therefore on you to prove your claim in a demonstrated scenario, not on everyone else to disprove it in all scenarios. Could it be true that colonoscopies have some significant benefit to mortality smaller than detectable by a 80,000-person RCT? Sure. But that doesn't make the headline wrong.
This study didn't find a mortality benefit. Arguing that there's some theoretical other study that might find a benefit isn't relevant.
This is a poor way of thinking about statistics. Whether you reject or not a sharp null hypothesis doesn't give you much information (See for example: https://www.gwern.net/Everything). Failing to reject in particular, can be compatible with a wide range of effects.
>In all cases where you don't find a significant difference, the problem is that the confidence interval is too wide for whatever difference seems to exist.
With enough data, there could totally have been a tight range around no effect or a small effect. This is not what we got here though.
Also note that other variables such as cancer risk came out significant, so while this study doesn't provide much inductive evidence around cancer death, we do get some deductive evidence based on the known link between cancer and death. Not to mention that cancer and cancer treatments are not fun even when they don't kill you.
What the trial showed was a small effect with a wide uncertainty on a big sample. We cannot distinguish this from zero.
Again, could the observed effect be significant with a larger trial? Sure. But that's always true for a negative result. The objection carries no information.
Sure, this is true, it's one of the reasons why results being significant or not is not very relevant. At some point you want to move towards whether the effect size is in a clinically relevant range or not.
>The objection carries no information.
Inasmuch as something like a confidence interval provides an idea of the range of the effect size, more data does carry more information. I know it's complicated to do this analysis properly with prediction intervals and such, but you have no choice if you want to be able to make good decisions with your data. A wide range estimate that doesn't allow you to make good clinical decisions is not useful.
For clinical purposes, I would even have been more confortable treating an significant but small effect in support of the "let's not test" scenario, than this wide range where the effect could be large and positive or negative on the other side and we just don't know. Significant doesn't automatically mean "do the test" and vice versa. Effect size matters! A non-significant result because of a wide interval just doesn't tell you much useful information.
No. Significance is the only thing that matters here. If you don't have a significant result, you don't have a result. Making up stories about how the results coulda-woulda-shoulda been significant if only the study was different somehow is fine for bedtime or planning the next study, but absolutely irrelevant to interpreting the clinical trial in front of you.
The CI here is not actually that wide; I was being colloquial. It's an 80,000 person trial, with 40,000 per arm. The absolute observed difference in colo-rectal mortality between the two arms was 0.03%. The per-protocol analysis (just those people who got tested) was a difference of 0.15%.
That latter figure is the best possible argument for colonoscopy, and no matter how you look at it, it's just not a big difference. Even if you ran a huge trial to get a significant result at these effect sizes, you're still talking about a difference of 15 people per 10,000 (at best) screened. That's a lot of pain and expense for very little gain.
Cancer is much more treatable, these days.
I had a friend that just underwent seven months of chemo for colorectal cancer. Looks like he'll be fine, but it was Stage IV, when it was discovered. Had a couple of surgeries, and radiation. The chemo was the worst, though. He channeled Uncle Fester, and this was a fairly robust, somewhat overweight chap.
So he would not go in the "death" column, but I guarantee that he would not be one to dismiss the seriousness of the disease (or its treatment).
I'm not that surprised death rates were similar. Colonoscopies will catch pre-cancerous masses like polyps, so I can see the cancer rate being lower.
But if diagnosed with cancer, treatments are quite good for colorectal cancer, so you may not see that much of a difference in death rate on a 10 year horizon.
Changing the title to Don't Worry About Colon Cancer Death Rates, Just Continue To Do What You're Told would not have been better or more accurate.
Can you please keep it civil and avoid devolving into insults? I don't spend my time online to get treated like a fool. Now please restrain yourself from trolling even further and say "well, then don't say foolish things" because I'd flag you.
If you bothered reading the article, a paragraph reads that this particular form of screening did have an impact. Just not as significant as the community thought.
The study is about _one particular form of screening_ that might might have been oversold. Perfectly consistent with the parent observation and my own: screening is significant, curing cancer isn't as easy as avoiding it altogether.
Now, if you have something constructive to add please do so. Otherwise, please shut up and move on to some Reddit sub.
What would be more accurate is to say the title is incomplete. Te details matter.
If the claim was "Voluntary colonoscopy screening does not reduce the risk of death over a 10 year period" it would likely be more accurate and at least calls out the "voluntary" nature of the patients examines and the limited time span of the analysis.
No study is ever perfect and everyone has limitations. You usually learn more by investigating the limitations than poking holes in the conclusions.
(In general, one would think people who got the colonoscopy got more treatment -- in this case despite having no lower a death rate -- but perhaps it does not include as much intense treatment).
That may have had something to do with him not getting a gerbillcam until he started having symptoms.
I will say his treatment wasn't fun, at all, although he'll be OK, in the long run (but chemo never leaves you the same).
Good for your friend to be on the way of recovering!
For the chemo your friend likely experienced, this is especially true.
Colorectal cancer is often treated with the chemo cocktail, FOLFOX. The "OX" stands for oxaliplatin which causes nerve damage-- hearing loss (less than cisplatin, though), peripheral neuropathy, etc. The second half-life, in the body, of oxaliplatin is 535 months (44 years). And, the platinum remains in a reactive form.
I'd love to hear a professional chime in on if there are ways to speed the elimination. E.g., something like extended/extreme fasting (to free oxaliplatin from tissues) + sodium thiosulfate + blood plasma donation, or something?
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2559818/
Some choice quotes from the link:
"The first elimination half-life (t1/2) for cisplatin was 5.02 months and the second 37.0 months. For oxaliplatin, these half-lifes were 1.37 and 535 months."
"...it was shown that Pt species in pUF were still present in a reactive form."
Edit: just submitted the above article:
This isn’t true. The secondary analysis shows a reduced death rate.
The problem with the title is that it says “Effect of Colonoscopy Screening”, not “Effect of telling people to get a colonoscopy screening”, where the primary analysis is making conclusions based on the latter.
Maybe this style of title is standard for medical journals, but the argument in this thread is based on the title priming us for what the paper is talking about, and directly leading to confusion.
Maybe you didn't read the article all the way through?
What it found was it merely inviting people to a colonoscopy did not result in less deaths from colon cancer, although it did result in fewer people being treated for it.
However, if you look at the people who actually took a colonoscopy, there was a 50% reduction in deaths from colon cancer.
That's not nothing.