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Comment by Phrenzy | Hacker News Reader

IMO China is on the way out. Their real estate market is crashing, and that is bring down the banking industry. The Zero Covid policy is crashing their economy, and the younger generations would rather "Let it Rot."

The CCP might not make it to the end of the 2020s. If they somehow get all the above sorted out, the demographic charts show that will be the time they run out of young people. But it is worse than that. The charts may have overcounted the younger generations by up to 100 million people.

The de-globalization that is going on, and the fact they can't feed their population, means they will have to make drastic changes. They may even have to de-urbanize large sections of their population to keep hundreds of millions from starving.

China is on the way out.

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I typically do not respond to posts about China partly, because I simply do not believe I know enough about it to comment appropriately. Still, what I do know is that accurate information about China in general is a lot harder to obtain that information about US. From get go this means that any discussion about demographics, real estate or banking is more speculative than anything else. Worse, it is hard to rely on anecdata, because of how large China's population is and how ( as I learned recently ) un-united China's population is ( when compared to US ). Those two factors alone should make one hesitate with offering any major predictions on its trajectory.

I am not automatically saying you are wrong, but with exception of real estate, there is little I can find where somewhat verifiable data seem to support it.

I'm chinese (american born), I have a lot of chinese friends and relatives so I know about a lot of the on the ground anecdotal data. From that anecdotal data, I would say this video perfectly matches what I'm seeing:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V30VyMMce9s

I'm not Chinese American, or even American. I'm Canadian.

I never understood why people want another country to "collapse". It'd be such a humanitarian tragedy it would go from a quick moment of blind happiness to horror, think of the millions of elderly depending on pensions, already living on the edge. The kids depending on school lunches.

Our real enemies are at home, it's the corporations.

Americans love war.

From Vietnam to Iraq to Ukraine to Taiwan.

It's all a spectator sport for them. The USA has never been invaded by a foreign power since 1812.

It's easy to understand. Sports teams. It's the same concept. The US has literally been the best economy for decades. Now a 2nd place contender is rising up, it's natural for people to feel this way and latch on to every negative thing about that country and magnify it.

It happens on both sides, the Chinese feel the same way about the US of A too.

Analysis of electric lights at night observed by satellites normally correlates well with GDP, but in the case of China it doesn't. It indicates that GDP was being over-reported significantly:

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3093296

Here is some demographic info.

China's population numbers: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/researcher-questions-chi...

Never underestimate your enemy

China is not the enemy. That is illusory. China does not want your blood, The US does not want China's blood.

All China and the US want is to be better than the other. That makes them rivals. Very different from enemies. The irony is both rivals practically live in a symbiosis. We are rivals but survival for both China and the US involves mutual cooperation.

Yeah, sure.

have you seen Chinese media? They want to become superpower and USA doenst want to loose that power thats how they became enemies as simple as that

Maybe.

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