It is the fourth time it has gone in the last six years, having only melted nine times in the past 300 years. Mr Cameron said climate change was a likely factor.
That's not promising
That's not promising
Attributing one thing to climate change is difficult.
> Attributing one thing to climate change is difficult.
Yes. A pattern of things, on the other hand ...
Is it a real pattern? Or maybe just a simple feedback loop caused by click-bait journalism and confirmation bias.
However when a snow free Scotland changes from being once every 50 years to every other year, that's a strong correlation with climate change.
So you're saying that you think that they are lying, and falsifying weather information? Do you think they came up with this plan 300 years ago when they started recording?
This is a report about a thing that is happening. You can see it as a sign of something else, you can see it as not necessarily a sign of something else. To refuse to see it at all, however, is concerning.
All I pointed out was that the guy saying Scotland was suddenly "snow-free" had obviously not been to Scotland. Because it doesn't actually snow here very often, people just think it does. Take a deep breath. Not everything is an anti-climate change conspiracy.
Thoroughly confusing for climate-change deniers ofc (and climate-change truthers it seems). But, as I said, it really stopped happening in the mid-19th century.
Are you not contradicting yourself?
Not sure who thinks it snows in Scotland all the time either? Certainly known more for its rain I'd say. I would agree Scotland has a tendency for unusual micro-climates. I do think the measurement of frequency of snowless days in Scotland is a reasonable bellwether for climate change indicators given the details provided.
To give another observation of possible indicators of climate change effects in Scotland I have lived in a coastal town in Scotland for a little over a decade and there are strong indicators of increasing coastal erosion which I would attribute to the rising sea-levels brought about by climate change.
Are you trying to make an argument that climate change isn't real or just not happy with the reporting of this event? It's not clear to me what your actual point is.
Not if you are familiar with the climate history of the UK. The reason why warming started a century and a half ago is not the reason it is warming now.
> Not sure who thinks it snows in Scotland all the time either?
The guy who I replied to who said it was unusual that it wasn't snowing in Scotland. I don't know what to tell you.
I will offer an alternative statistic for climate change: temperature change. I think it will catch on, but you can continue with your thing.
> It's not clear to me what your actual point is.
Because you had in your head when you replied to my comment that I must be a climate-change denier. So you are now very confused when you wrote your comment, and then looked at what I said and then realised that at no point did I mention anything about climate change. You may know this is something that happens to people now: you talk about something related to a cause de jour, and the person will think everything you are saying is connected to cause de jour.
Still can't see anyone replying to you with that
> Because you had in your head when you replied to my comment that I must be a climate-change denier....
I had it in my head it wasn't clear what point you are actually making about the original article as much of what you state is, at best, personal experience and little else. Not that that can't add to a discussion to some degree However, I'm still none the wiser but will leave it at that as don't believe this is worth pursuing and will just become (more) circular.
No they don't. You are arguing with a straw man.
People know Scotland has had 9 times that the last snow has melted before fresh snow falls in the last 300 years, and four of those were in the last six years.
If you read more closely (perhaps spend less time reading statistics textbooks, and more time working on your comprehension), you will also notice that I mentioned specifically that there has been no noticeable change in frequency over the time that I lived here.
You may think you are an expert on stats and cognitive biases of people you have never met...are you also an expert on the local weather conditions of central Scotland? My guy, no-one asked, next time you are thinking about doing this, stop. Write it down in your feelings journal, your views are significantly less interesting than you think.
I would think that the evidence for climate change is reasonably strong given the statistics showing temperatures are changing and the science explaining how this is happening...unfortunately, there is a large contingent of humanity who insist on reading climate change in every event. I have a guy, presumably from the US, who is informing me with great authority about what the weather is like near my house...okay, can't believe I am such a dirty climate change denier for observing that this guy's totally unscientific musings aren't useful (if you didn't know the BBC churns out stories like this all day, every day...man falls over? Climate change. Man coughs loudly in doctor's surgery? Climate change again).
> "Since the late 1970's there has been a significant reduction in the average number of days with snow lying, based on a sample of climatological stations at altitudes between 100m and 400m. The average rate of change has been 12 days per decade, which has been associated with changes in mean temperature during the winter months. The average number of days with snow lying across Scotland as a whole during the winter (November to April) is reduced by 9 days for every 1.0oC increase in mean temperature."
That's from a paper published in 2000, which is useful to look at because it makes projections for avg time periods (30-yr means) centered on 2020, 2050, and 2080.
These projections from 2000 are kind of interesting. We don't seem to be in the absolute worst-case projection (current snow loss in the Alps appears to be 77%, not 100%, for example [1]):
> "Whetton et al. (1996) have used GCM’s to simulate changes in snow cover in the Australian Alps using a mass balance approach (snowfall less ablation). They conclude that in a worst-case scenario, all snow will have disappeared from the Alps by the 2020’s. Barringer (1996) translates snow cover into altitude of snowlines which, under a best case scenario, retreat upwards at the rate of 10m per decade, rising to 52m per decade in a worst case scenario. Hantel et al. (2000) translate incremental temperature changes into numbers of snow days which, at lower altitudes, would mean a reduction of 31 days in winter and 42 days in spring for a temperature increase of 1oC."
[0] CLIMATE CHANGE AND CHANGING PATTERNS OF SNOWFALL IN SCOTLAND J Harrison, S Winterbottom - 2000
[1] https://news.yahoo.com/alps-getting-greener-thats-not-184713...
What (if anything) to do about this reality is a matter of debate, but there's no mistake that steady global warming is taking place, fairly in line with projections dating back several decades at least.
There has been a noticeable change in climate over that time period which would make me more likely to agree with the data being presented here is meaningful.
This title is pretty terrible when you consider the article.
The Sphinx, in the Cairngorms, which is historically the longest-lasting patch of snow in the UK, has melted. The Sphinx, on remote Braeriach, a 1,296m (4,252ft) Munro, has melted away more frequently in the last 18 years. According to records, it previously melted fully in 1933, 1959, 1996, 2003, 2006, 2017, 2018, 2021 and now 2022. Before 1933, it is thought to have last melted completely in the 1700s.
The Scottish Mountaineering Club began noting the fortunes of the patch in the 1840s and more recently scientists and ecologists have gathered information.
It's really about the longest lasting patch of snow in Scotland melting. I guess that is where they get "Scotland is snow free". And the mountaineering club has been making observations since 1840.
So this is really around 180 years of observations. All the melts since they started observations occurred in the last 89 years and the period between melts has been getting shorter and shorter.
If that's not data, what is it?