Switching World to Renewable Energy Will Cost $62T, Payback Would Take 6 Years
cleantechnica.com
cleantechnica.com
Yes of course we will still need fossil fuels even after we finish transitioning to renewables, for some of the cases you mention, and for edge cases.
It's a valid point for you to raise since they made the mistake of making their article about renewable energy, not about the larger encompassing solution of which renewables are only a part, namely sustainable energy. But raising this point doesn't begin to dismiss the fact that a huge component of transitioning to sustainable will be transitioning much of our energy sourcing to renewables.
The thing is, despite what extinction rebellion et. al. tell us, the global economy is moving to renewables pretty much full speed. It's just that that same economy has so much inertia that it will take decades to make that switch. But the second half will not take nearly as long as the first.
bold statement - can you back this up? I find it very hard to believe
https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in...
Our bottleneck right now is processing, not mining (because of the energy crisis).
It's similar for wind power, but somewhat distorted by the very long time it takes to build a wind farm (from planning to first watt-hour). Notably, noone can put a wind turbine on their roof.
And their short-term solution? Buy gas from other countries.
https://www.thedrive.com/news/a-swarm-of-self-driving-cruise...
No, no. Until there's still a drop of oil or a lump of coal to exploit, there will be no "full speed". Corps want you to believe they are thinking green, while they just don't care. Events like the energy crisis in Europe might open a few eyes, but nothing more.
With that out of the way, the glaring miss here is that gasoline or coal burned at utility scale is quite efficient and while far from perfect, that is a different calculation than, wow somehow like there are hundreds of millions of gas cars everywhere. That's pretty inefficient.
Also with all this renewable energy, how are you going to light up the forges that need massive amounts of energy to make the materials for wind capture? Will lithium, iron, and phosphate mining really do less harm at scale than fracking and mining for coal? If shipping and logistics use more energy than individual consumers, and consumers buy their home energy from their utility companies, why are you trying to hard sell individuals if you actually have a solid value proposition for utilities and shipping/logistic companies? They have the assets to leverage for loans and investments to deploy new means of energy at scale. Why do you need to preach to individuals that their gas car is evil, when your economies of scale at the corporate level should make a consumer option more affordable and accessible?
Surprise: mining runs on diesel and natural gas. Now add in all those emissions to those 30 kg of lithium (and let's not even count all the other extremely environmentally hostile elements needed). Now we ship them accross the world, usually to China, and then from China to somewhere else. Then we burn coal (Germany today) to build that shiny "green" Tesla.
If we were serious about this green thing we would be focused on urban planning, public transit, and retrofitting existing vehicles to be greener. The greenest car is a car you don't have to manufacture.
Also keep in mind that both lithium and gasoline are currently supply constrained rather than demand constrained. The price of lithium is currently 8x the cost of production, and the price of oil is currently about 2x the cost of production. Lithium producers will still be quite profitable at current prices if costs double, but oil producers would not be.
Taxing scope 3 emissions would help public transit even more than it would help EV's.
However, let's take a look at it another way.
If it would take $62T to convert to 100% renewable, how much would it cost to get to 80% renewable?
I'm trying to get a read on how much of the current energy is from renewables, and I'm seeing figures in the 8-30%. It's a big spread, but it is showing how far we may have come.
Admittedly, the government here seems to be getting zero benefit politically or in the public opinion from that long term planning.
12 countries are listed as over 90% renewable currently. Iceland at 100%; Norway at 97.2%.
The question was “why isn’t anyone doing it”; the answer is “they are”.
Solar doesn't, but demand is correspondingly lower at night, too.
Storage will evolve as the need evolves, just like cell phone batteries did.
Sometimes real breakthroughs are required in science, engineering, or both. In the case of really useful batteries, which we do NOT have today, it's definitely both.
These BREAKTHROUGHS (not incremental improvements!) are REQUIRED to do the things envisioned in the article. These breakthroughs may come tomorrow, OR we may be in the same situation with battery technology that we are with nuclear fusion: It's the energy of the future, and always will be - We've been "only 30 years away" from a fusion breakthrough and "power too cheap to meter" for at least 75 years now!
Let's say in the middle of the desert… Well, if there are no people there, then perhaps there is no need for power.
And if there are people, they can choose to live a primitive lifestyle, or they can buy batteries and solar panels and wind generators, or (shocker) they can continue to use petroleum products for energy, that is also an option even if the world switches to renewable energy.
An article that talks strictly about renewables is fine (just not great); that's their right to write such an article if they want, but the transition to renewables should be understood in the context of the encompassing transition to sustainability. Sustainable solutions would, for example, include some reasonable and needed use of fossil fuels, for certain situations where they are still the best solution even accounting for their adverse effects.
We have no effective way of storing energy. If you only want energy on sunny windy days during daytime, this is fine. Enjoy the power going out at night and when the wind slows down.
Hopefully we will get much cheaper storage and production soon, but it's not completely viable now.
And what are political and ecological implications of them. As I doubt even the Greens prepared to build up most effective pumped hydro locations anymore. Effectively flooding quite large areas. And also I take there is questions where to get the water from in parts of the world...
Competition on the basis of today's market prices which don't include this, is nonsense.
And that is energy that whether it’s available for putting back in the grid or not, (usually not, which is fine) replaces a gas pump.
This is not a solution.
If you want to argue otherwise, demonstrate it with an estimate of the energy amounts used.
Because I did the check. I don't think you have.
I suspect your napkin math is probably calculating a different use case which is not the most common intended use case of car batteries, but rather, if even practical at all, only a trifling convenience, the scale of which will be lost in the noise when compared to actual driving usage.
Again, what was your point?
This argument falls incredibly short by assuming every EV gets 100% drained daily.
I've got better things to do with my life that worry about that crap - I can just refill in well under 5 minutes nearly anywhere, and even adding an unreasonable number of chargers (at about $500K/POP, BTW) doesn't get EV users to that kind of worry-free transportation.
Your refill takes you 5 minutes but my refill takes me 5 seconds. Which is faster?
Where do you get the $500k number btw?
I saw the Chargepoint price list a while back when they still had it posted and a single Chargepoint charger station with two connectors was around $11k and a fast charger with two connectors was around $50k.
This is what Switzerland is focusing on right now to make sure they have enough stored power for January and February when production doesn't suffice the requirements and purchasing electricity from abroad may not be possible.
All current heat engines as defined by the 2nd law of thermodynamics require a DELTA T to run, and the small delta T provided by low-quality heat sources cannot generate much power, and drastically slashes the efficiency possible from the system. (Interestingly, there does appear to be a part of the 2nd law which only applies in the quantum realm and has no classical heat engine analog - if that turns out to be true, then it changes things up quite a bit...)
We literally don't have the tech nor capacity for make this transition: - we dont have the rare earth minerals - we don't have the metals - with exception of nuclear all these alternatives are extremely inefficient.
It takes years of sustained exponential demand to even let capacity catch up and thats if we can even feasible find new reserves (for rare earth).
Let alone the game theoretic situation where u can only achieve this with a tyranny. It will cost significantly less to adapt and change..
This statement really annoyed me and undermined their credibility